Heads I win, tails you lose on Australian dollar

Heads I win, tails you lose. That’s the Australian dollar right now. The Chinese data came in firm and showed enough life to support activity slowing manageably in the second half so the Aussie is up and away:

But wait, wasn’t the Aussie rising on post-Brexit hopes for more Chinese (and other) stimulus? Yes, it was, along with commodity prices.

It’s absurd but that’s the reality. The Aussie is not going fall again until commodity prices do, and I mean convincingly, so that they can’t be reversed by some Jedi central banker waving his hand:

But fall it will (so long as dirt prices do)….

Share

About the author

David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.