Heads I win, tails you lose. That’s the Australian dollar right now. The Chinese data came in firm and showed enough life to support activity slowing manageably in the second half so the Aussie is up and away:
But wait, wasn’t the Aussie rising on post-Brexit hopes for more Chinese (and other) stimulus? Yes, it was, along with commodity prices.
It’s absurd but that’s the reality. The Aussie is not going fall again until commodity prices do, and I mean convincingly, so that they can’t be reversed by some Jedi central banker waving his hand:
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But fall it will (so long as dirt prices do)….