CASS issues another China property warning

Cross-posted from Investing in Chinese Stocks.

Zhang Ming of CASS discusses the current real estate market.

We found a very important phenomenon. In the previous two real estate market rebound process (2009, 2012), the volume of real estate are the first to pick up, and then drive to pick up real estate development, and finally prices rebound. So you can put the real estate market rebound in the first two rounds as the result of a spontaneous adjustment of the real estate market, which is the inventory drops, when the inventory dropped to a certain size, the volume started to rise. But the current round of real estate rebound is typically characterized by: first rebound in house prices, driven real estate volume pick up again after the last drive real estate investment rebound. Therefore, the current round of real estate market rebound showed prices rebound ahead of the other factors.

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About the author

David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.