From Morgan Stanley on NAB’s massive loss profit yesterday:
The outlook for margins has improved, but growth prospects still look modest and loan losses are unsustainably low. We forecast a ~14% dividend cut in 2017 and expect the ROEto fall to ~13%.
Uncertainty around provisioning: We highlight three issues:
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David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
