Expected capex offers a glimpse of rebalancing

Thursday, 26 May 2016

The ABS has released its March quarter expected capital expenditure numbers and there’s a little ray of light in the numbers:

This issue includes the sixth estimate (Estimate 6) for 2015-16 and the second estimate (Estimate 2) for 2016-17.
Estimate 6 for 2015-16 is $126,819m. This is 15.3% lower than Estimate 6 for 2014-15. Estimate 6 is 2.9% higher than Estimate 5 for 2015-16.
Estimate 2 for 2016-17 is $89,231m. This is 14.6% lower than Estimate 2 for 2015-16. Estimate 2 is 6.3% higher than Estimate 1 for 2016-17.

It’s the last one that matters. We’ve jumped from -19.5% to -14.6%:

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About the author

David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.