Cross-posted from Mark the Ballot:
…here are the weekly betting market statistics for the Coalition’s likelihood of winning the next Australian election.
House Coalition Odds ($) Labor Odds ($) Coalition Win Probability (%) 2016-04-29 Betfair 1.38 3.28 70.39 2016-04-29 CrownBet 1.34 3.20 70.48 2016-04-29 Ladbrokes 1.35 3.15 70.00 2016-04-29 Luxbet 1.31 3.30 71.58 2016-04-29 Sportsbet 1.33 3.25 70.96 2016-04-29 TABtouch 1.34 3.10 69.82 2016-04-29 William Hill 1.34 3.25 70.81
% Fr 22-Apr Sa 23-Apr Su 24-Apr Mo 25-Apr Tu 26-Apr We 27-Apr Th 28-Apr Fr 29-Apr Betfair 71.61 71.00 70.37 71.31 70.37 67.76 69.28 70.39 CrownBet 72.92 72.92 72.92 72.92 72.92 72.92 72.92 70.48 Ladbrokes 69.82 69.82 69.82 69.82 69.82 69.82 70.96 70.00 Luxbet 74.45 74.45 74.45 76.02 73.65 71.58 71.58 71.58 Sportsbet 72.92 75.25 75.25 75.25 75.25 75.25 70.96 70.96 TABtouch 69.48 69.48 72.04 72.04 72.04 72.04 69.82 69.82 William Hill 70.48 70.48 72.92 72.92 72.92 72.92 70.81 70.81 Average 71.67 71.91 72.54 72.90 72.42 71.76 70.90 70.58 I have added an average row to the bottom of the second table. In this row we can see it has been an up-down week, ending about a percentage point down on where we began in terms of the probability of a Coalition election win.
