Attention APRA: Tighten macroprudential NOW

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Fresh from welcoming back crooked Chinese at the Bank of Melbourne, Westpac is now throwing open its doors to specufestors, from Domainfax:

Westpac, the country’s biggest lender to landlords, is lowering the size of the deposits it will require from property investors, partially reversing last year’s crackdown.

After a sharp slowdown in lending to property investors, Westpac and St George, which it owns, this month told mortgage brokers the maximum loan-to-valuation ratio (LVR) for new mortgages for property investors would rise to 90 per cent, up from 80 per cent.

The change means property investors need a deposit of 10 per cent of a property’s value, compared with 20 per cent previously.

It comes as banks are offering more competitive interest rates to property investors in an attempt to boost growth now that this segment of the market is growing well below the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority’s 10 per cent a year speed limit.

Lending growth is indeed well below the APRA 10% limit with big six bank growth down to 5.7% year on year:

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WBC is at -8.8% but that is largely because of portfolio adjustments:

ANZ CBA MQG NAB WBC BOQ BEN SUN
Mar-16 82270 128065 9220 96825 135712 11981 11370 11322
Feb-16 82469 127835 9221 96531 135351 11919 11243 11332
Jan-16 82656 127872 9257 96114 135471 11680 11229 11414
Dec-15 82766 128018 9269 95749 135279 11470 11258 11475
Nov-15 82722 127957 9311 95278 135372 11295 11280 11595
Oct-15 82718 128396 9253 94384 134938 11166 11292 11701
Sep-15 82911 129616 9264 94019 149687 11062 11266 11800
Aug-15 83426 130791 9230 93404 151359 11056 11232 11856
Jul-15 83930 130419 9242 93209 156296 10833 11168 12510
Jun-15 83508 129719 9017 66637 152499 11110 11128 12397
May-15 82482 127904 8802 65759 150869 10658 11147 12335
Apr-15 81665 126268 7856 65017 149755 10671 11110 12288
Mar-15 80824 125088 7688 64229 148784 10645 11061 12214

This should not be viewed as an opportunity by the banks. Rather, it should be viewed by APRA as a chance to lower the limit immediately before the banks charge back in. The cap has proven very effective at 6% without crashing anything. Banks are already cutting apart their owner-occupier lending standards and if they now reverse investor mortgage tightening as interest rates are cut then it’ll be off to the races again for another round of chase the bubble.

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Move NOW APRA.

About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.