Dollar crushed as deflation arrives

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From the ABS:

MARCH KEY FIGURES

Mar Qtr 2015 to Mar Qtr 2016
Weighted average of eight capital cities
% change
% change

All groups CPI
-0.2
1.3
Food and non-alcoholic beverages
-0.2
0.0
Alcohol and tobacco
0.9
6.1
Clothing and footwear
-2.6
-0.8
Housing
0.3
1.7
Furnishings, household equipment and services
-0.4
2.0
Health
1.9
4.6
Transport
-2.5
-0.5
Communication
-1.5
-6.4
Recreation and culture
-1.0
0.1
Education
3.1
3.3
Insurance and financial services
0.6
2.3
CPI analytical series
All groups CPI, seasonally adjusted
-0.1
1.3
Trimmed mean
0.2
1.7
Weighted median
0.1
1.4

THE ALL GROUPS CPI

  • fell 0.2% this quarter, compared with a rise of 0.4% last quarter.
  • rose 1.3% over the twelve months to the March quarter 2016, compared with a rise of 1.7% over the twelve months to the December quarter 2015.

OVERVIEW OF CPI MOVEMENTS

  • The most significant price falls this quarter are automotive fuel (-10.0%), fruit (-11.1%) and international holiday travel and accommodation (-2.0%).
  • The most significant offsetting price rises this quarter are secondary education (+4.6%), medical and hospital services (+1.6%) and pharmaceutical products (+4.8%).
Capture

1.3% versus 1.7% expected. Oil the big one but weak everywhere. Dollar pole-axed:

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As bond yields are crunched:

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What were markets thinking?

About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.