US jobs: When good news is bad

The non-farm payrolls report out Friday night was pretty good, from the BLS (charts by Calculated Risk):

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 151,000 in January, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 4.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in several industries, led by retail trade, food services and drinking places, health care, and manufacturing. Employment declined in private educational services, transportation and warehousing, and mining.

… The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for November was revised from +252,000 to +280,000, and the change for December was revised from +292,000 to +262,000. With these revisions, employment gains in November and December combined were 2,000 lower than previously reported.

…In January, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls increased by 12 cents to $25.39. Over the year, average hourly earnings have risen by 2.5 percent.

…The total nonfarm employment level for March 2015 was revised downward by 206,000 … The effect of these revisions on the underlying trend in nonfarm payroll employment was minor. For example, the over-the-year change in total nonfarm employment for 2015 was revised from 2,650,000 to 2,735,000.

That was a headline miss but the internals were better. Annual growth is still firm:

The unemployment rate trending down:

Analytical series are mostly improving:

Wages held recent gains:

Shadow slack is still high but also still falling:

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If it were not for the wider volatility, markets would have taken this as confirmation of more rate hikes. Indeed, perhaps they did as shares fell out bed!