In early November L-NP support is 56.5% (up 0.5%) cf. ALP 43.5% (down 0.5%) on a two-party preferred basis. If a Federal Election were held now the L-NP would win easily.
Primary support for the L-NP rose 0.5% to 47% and ALP support rose 1% to 28.5%.
Support for the Greens fell to 14.5% (down 1%) while Katter’s Australian Party is 1% (down 0.5%), Palmer United Party is 1% (up 0.5%), while Independents/ Others are at 8% (down 0.5%).
This week’s Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted over the last two weekends, October 24/25, 31 & November 1, 2015, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,262 Australian electors.
Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating
The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is unchanged this week at 112 with 48% (up 1%) of Australians saying Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’ (the highest for this indicator for two years since mid-November 2013) and 36% (up 1%) saying Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.
Analysis by Gender
Analysis by Gender shows a majority of both genders supporting the L-NP. Men: L-NP 58.5% (down 1.5%) cf. ALP 41.5% (up1.5%); Women: L-NP 54% (up 2%) cf. ALP 46% (down 2%).
Analysis by Age group
Analysis by Age group shows that Turnbull’s biggest problem is convincing younger voters to support the L-NP. The ALP leads with 18-24yr olds: ALP 59% cf. L- NP 41% and leads the L-NP amongst 25-34yr olds: ALP 56.5% cf. L-NP 43.5%. However, the L-NP leads comfortably with all older age groups: 35-49yr olds favour the L-NP 58.5% cf. ALP 41.5% while 50-64yr olds favour the L-NP 60.5% cf. ALP 39.5% and those aged 65+ easily favour the L-NP 65% cf. ALP 35%.
Analysis by States
The L-NP now has a two-party preferred lead in all Australian States. Tasmania: L-NP 63% cf. ALP 37%, Queensland: LNP 59% cf. ALP 41%, New South Wales: L-NP 58% cf. ALP 42%, Western Australia: L-NP 58% cf. ALP 42%, South Australia: L-NP 56% cf. ALP 44%, and Victoria: L-NP 52% cf. ALP 48%.
Mark the Ballot has betting markets showing PMT at unbackable odds:
House
Coalition Odds ($)
Labor Odds ($)
Coalition Win Probability (%)
2015-10-30
Betfair
1.13
6.51
85.209424
2015-10-30
CrownBet
1.13
6.00
84.151473
2015-10-30
Ladbrokes
1.15
5.00
81.300813
2015-10-30
Luxbet
1.13
5.50
82.956259
2015-10-30
Sportsbet
1.15
5.50
82.706767
2015-10-30
TABtouch
1.14
5.50
82.831325
2015-10-30
William Hill
1.13
6.00
84.151473
My own chart of first term PMs shows PMT tracking solidly without tearing the roof off:
And there is an implicit warning in Roy Morgan’s Government Confidence ratings which has jumped but remains below the rebound that Tony Abbott enjoyed at his election:
Hard to see PMT losing but then he hasn’t done anything yet either.
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
