Usually I find the quarterly Statement on Monetary policy a boring document. And for the most part today is no different. The RBA has slashed its inflation outlook and trimmed growth:
Inflation has dropped between -0.5% to 0-.75% over the next year. Growth was nudged down from a 2-3% range to 2.25%. Here’s good summary for the rest of it from Forexlive:
- Says prospects for economy have firmed a little
- Subdued inflation outlook may afford scope to ease further if needed
- Cuts near term inflation forecasts by 0.5%, shaves longer term GDP forecasts
- Sees underlying inflation around 2% for most of next year, before rising to 2.5%
- Underlying inflation forecast 1.5-2.5%by mid-2016, then 2-3% out to end 2017
- GDP growth forecast at 2.25% end 2015, 2.5-3.5% end 2016, 3-4% end 2017
- GDP revisions for 2017 reflect slower start up of LNG projects
- Economic growth appears to have picked up in Q3 thanks to exports, home building
- Employment growth forecast to remain relatively strong, jobless rate to hold steady
- Sees unemployment between 6-6.25% over next year, then falling gradually
- Data suggest pick up in non-mining investment unlikely in the near term
- Lower AUD has boosted net service exports, makes no comment on level of AUD
- Tighter supervision helping contain risk from housing market
- Asia slowdown to be more persistent than expected, key uncertainty for forecasts
Advertisement
