In mid-November L-NP support is 56% (down 0.5%) cf. ALP 44% (up 0.5%) on a two-party preferred basis. If a Federal Election were held now the L-NP would win easily.
Primary support fell for both major parties with support for the L-NP 46% (down 1%) and ALP 28% (down 0.5%). Support for the Greens was unchanged at 14.5% while Katter’s Australian Party is 2% (up 1% to the highest since January 2015), Palmer United Party is 1% (unchanged), while Independents/ Others are at 8.5% (up 0.5%).
Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating
The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating jumped this week to 119.5 (up 7.5pts and the highest since March 2011) with 50.5% (up 2.5%) of Australians saying Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’ and 31% (down 5%) saying Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.
The breakout in “government confidence” is an interesting moment. It may be that the dark age of political illegitimacy that began with the sacking of Kevin Rudd has finally ended. Although Turnbull was also installed mid-term he is very popular and may simply considered to be the ‘right man at the right time’ pushing him past the back-stabbing politics.
Fairfax confirmed the Morgan poll:
If it is the case that a sense of political legitimacy is returning via Malcolm Turnbull then it is very bad news for Bill “Kingslayer” Shorten, who was perhaps the key player in the entire revolving door prime ministership debacle. Certainly betting markets are writing him off, from Mark the Ballot:
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
