The Big November FMS takeaway is that the most vulnerable tactical trade heading into Dec Fed hike is “long dollar”, and associated positioning, i.e. long discretionary, Eurozone, banks, Japan, and short EM, resources, commodities.
Exhibit 2 shows that “long USD” is the most crowded trade by far (32%), followed by the related trades of “short commodity stocks” (15%) and “short EM equities” (15%)
The full text of this article is available to MacroBusiness subscribers
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
