We believe the fiscal slide is now coming to its end, because the recovery of land sales seems to have firmed up and gathered momentum in recent months.
While growth of land sales had hit the bottom in 2014Q4, the recovery did not show much momentum until May/June 2015. For instance, the yoy growth in value terms was still at -36% in April, but it turned positive in July to 3% (Figure 5). The preliminary data of September now shows a yoy growth of 30%, which could be even higher due to the lag in land sales reporting.
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David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
