From Carbon Tracker following the October 1 Paris summit pledges deadline:
The UNFCCC set a deadline of October 1, 2015 for Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) to be included in its synthesis document. While more INDCs may come in over the day, as of 11am 108 INDCs representing 135 countries have been registered with the UNFCCC, covering about 78% of global emissions.
The INDC process has led to a significant improvement in promised action compared to earlier pledges of action and informal announcements.
If fully implemented, the submitted INDCs for 2025 and 2030 are projected to lead to a warming of around 2.7°C by 2100 reflecting a 0.4°C improvement on the situation in December 2014, where only announcements for 2030 and pledges for 2020 were available.
Compared to the 3.6°C by 2100 warming that is projected to result from current policies the INDCs submitted lower warming by about 0.9°C
There is still a large emissions gap in 2025 and, to stay below 2°C, the gap is 11-13 GtCO2e. For 1.5°C the 2025 gap is 14-16 GtCO2e and would therefore require significant improvement in the level of mitigation ambition.
With current INDCs, the emissions gap is set to grow rapidly towards 2030.
There is a major risk that if current INDCs are locked in for 2030 and not reviewed and strengthened every five years, starting in 2020, that achievement of the 1.5°C goal called for by all the most vulnerable countries may be locked out, and achievement of the 2°C goal fundamentally threatened.
Of the 19 INDCs rated by the CAT, covering about 71% of global emissions, 17 have not been rated as “sufficient.” Instead, we rated eight, which cover 56% of global emissions, “medium,” and eight, which cover 14% of global emissions as “inadequate.” Two are sufficient but cover only 0.4% of global emissions, and one is not rated due to insufficient information.
Based on the climate action promised under the INDCs it is now clear that governments at the Paris climate conference need to consider a formal acknowledgement that there is an insufficient level of mitigation ambition for 2025 and 2030 to limit warming below 2oC. A rapid review of the INDCs at the latest by 2020 for the post-2025 period, backed by continuous efforts before the entry into force of the Agreement is needed to catalyse action and ensure the Agreement has a running start.
That’s building a head of steam. 2 degrees is the scientifically agreed threshold for dangerous climate change. We’re not there yet but a lot closer than we were. And here’s how ‘Straya is doing:
Poor. Full report.
