From BI:
Here’s the breakdown on Alcoa’s China outlook for 2015:
- Automotive production growth expected to come in at 1%-2%, down from 5%-8%
- Heavy duty truck and trailer production expected to fall 22%-24%, down from expectations for a 14%-16% decline
- Commercial building and construction sales are expected to grow 4%-6%, down from 6%-8%
Packaging sales, however, still expected to rise 8%-12% over last year.
Rebalancing in other words. An interesting little post at Fairfax adds some flavour:
Here is a trio of companies that have enjoyed some strong support from shareholders but look a bit on the nose at the moment.
As China transitions to consumption from manufacturing and building heaps of stuff, investors are keen to find the stocks that stand to benefit.
Some prime beneficiaries have been the likes Capilano Honey, baby formula company Bellamys, and vitamins firm Blackmore’s.
But some of that heat looks to be coming out of their share prices, with Blackmores in particular selling off heavily over the past couple of sessions.
Nevertheless, the stories are likely to remain attractive. The question, as ever, for investors is what price they are prepared to pay.
Not quite a ‘dining boom’ but it all helps.
Back to the old economy, and any imminent rebound on stimulus is running up against an infrastructure bottleneck, from SCMP:
Major Chinese construction projects worth about 286.9 billion yuan (US$45.17 billion) are facing delays because of problems such as the slow distribution of funds by local governments, the country’s top auditor said on Thursday.
Its comments are likely to fan concerns over the effectiveness of China’s renewed effort to pump cash into infrastructure to shore up its slowing economy, as it suggests that such investment is taking longer to ripple through.
The projects range from railways to housing.
Of 815 projects inspected across 29 provinces in August, 193, worth 286.9 billion yuan, were found to be experiencing significant implementation lags owing to a lack of funds or poor initial planning, the National Audit Office said in a report published on its website.
Those delays are a feature of this latest cycle and will impact the magnitude and duration of any hoped for old growth rebound.
