Morgan Stanley: Australian dollar going much lower

Monday, 20 July 2015

The Aussie battler was thumped Friday night again and the chart sure looks bearish for more with a busted descending triangle and head and shoulders pattern:

Market position has also shifted strongly bearish with last week’s Commitment of Traders report showing a big move short by large speculators to minus 33.5k contracts:

Markets can get much shorter than this yet. The move was triggered by resolutions in Greece and China, such as they are, focusing everyone back on Fed tightening. My own view is that that is bunkum but, hey, who cares? Right now it’s down for the Aussie whichever big economy gets into trouble. How much further down?

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About the author

David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.