From Barclays on the Silk Road (One Belt, One Road or Yi Dai Yi Lu):
We estimate that YDYL projects would absorb some of the overcapacity in Chinese industries such as cement, steel and aluminium, even under conservative assumptions. If we envisage a scenario assuming that roads, railway, power generation and power distribution assets grow by 5% from their existing asset base among YDYL countries, this could create 137mt of steel demand based on the existing asset base. This represents around 14% of China’s total steel production capacity as of 2014. Such a boost to demand could effectively give back steel producers in China pricing power, as the industry would go from 22% oversupplied to 8%, based on our estimates.
Colour me skeptical but estimating a 5% jump in capital stock in 60 countries simultaneously is the polar opposite of conservative.