As I’ve said many times the Dun and Bradstreet Business Expectations survey is more a real time indicator than a leading index but it ain’t travelling well either way:
That’s your roll over right there. What is most unsettling is that this is a services indicator so is supposed to be where the uplift is going to come from. The Kouk says it all:
“The economy appears to have hit a brick wall,” said Stephen Koukoulas, Economic Adviser to Dun & Bradstreet.
“The severe slumps in expected sales and employment are particularly worrying for the business outlook, while the actual performance of the economy has also undershot prior expectations.
“Businesses that reported relatively optimistic conditions early in 2015 are now facing the reality of an underperforming economy and their responses to this survey suggest there is some risk that the unemployment rate will rise further during the second half of 2015,” Mr Koukoulas added.
Time to flip flop on those bottom calls, Kouk. Full report.
