How strong are China’s property greens shoots

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From the FT:

cc2097c0-f4b7-11e4-8a42-00144feab7de…developers surveyed by China Confidential, an FT research service, reported a surge in activity in April. Of 300 surveyed in 40 cities nationwide, 55 per cent reported an increase in sales from the previous month, taking the China Confidential Home Sales Index to 66.9 (a reading above 50 indicates growth).

…While upgrader demand has picked up, property speculation remains muted, in keeping with Beijing’s wish to avoid a repeat of previous bouts of overheating…

…interest rates remain relatively high. Of the developers surveyed by China Confidential, 81 per cent said second-time buyers had to pay above the benchmark lending rate in April. Nor was there any sign that mortgage rates are being significantly lowered for first-time buyers…Seemingly, banks are not entirely playing ball with Beijing’s attempts to rally the housing market…the previous policy-led upswing in home sales at the end of 2014 quickly fizzled out due to still-tight credit conditions for homebuyers and, despite the positive signs in recent months, China Confidential’s survey data suggest the same could well happen this time around.

About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.