Scutt exposes ABS jobs numberwang

From David Scutt:

We applied monthly movements in the Australian jobs report over the past five years but adjusted them to reflect the size of the US labour force.

The relative stability of the non-farm payrolls number — reported in grey — is about as far-removed from the volatility found in the Australian jobs equivalent that is represented in green. One is consistent and one looks like an earthquake seismograph.

…There are important differences in how the surveys are conducted. NFP is based off payrolls growth reported, while in Australia it’s based on a population sample.

Numberwang!

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About the author

David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.