Cross-posted from Investing in Chinese Stocks.
Real estate investment growth barely grew in April from the year ago period, with growth at 0.5%. The bright spot in the report was improving sales, which ticked up sharply in April. Year to date, growth is still negative versus 2014, but the data is improving. Land sales were the worst data point, falling 29.1% and 32.7% by area.
If the IMF’s model showing a 1% drop in real estate growth translating into a 0.1% decline in GDP growth, Chinese GDP already be sub-7%, with sub 6% possible if the April monthly figure is not a one off like December’s negative print.
Charts below. NBS: 2015年1-4月份全国房地产开发和销售情况:
Real Estate Investment Growth Rate
Land purchases by developers (area)
New Home Sales By Area (yellow) and Yuan (blue)
Developer Capital
