Sorry this is bit late today. The NAB business survey jumped in March:
There were some tentative signs of improvement in the NAB Monthly Business Survey for March – with the post RBA cut fall in confidence reversed in March. Surprisingly, the lift was particularly pronounced in mining, although confidence is still lowest for this industry. Elsewhere outcomes were mixed, suggesting some industry specific factors are also at play. Transport & utilities posted the second largest gain, while retail and manufacturing were the only industries to deteriorate.
In March business conditions recorded a notable lift, with each component (trading, profit, employment) posting an improvement – although employment continues to be relatively muted. This level of conditions is pointing to a slightly above average rate of activity, although the trend is somewhat softer. If maintained it could well boost confidence further. By industry, there was a surprisingly strong improvement in conditions for the ‘bellwether’ wholesale industry, while construction improved significantly as well. In contrast, mining and retail were the only industries to record a (slight) deterioration. The export index is yet to respond to the more favourable AUD, while orders are soft (and down slightly). Capacity utilisation and capex, encouragingly, both improved.
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David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
