ALP support was 56% (down 1.5%) and well ahead of the L-NP 44% (up 1.5%) on a two-party preferred basis. If a Federal Election were held now the ALP would win easily according to this week’s Morgan Poll on voting intention conducted over the last two weekends, February 14/15 & 21/22, 2015, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 2,639 Australian electors aged 18+.
Primary support for the ALP fell to 40.5% (down 1%) ahead of the L-NP 37.5% (up 2%). Support for the other parties shows The Greens at 10% (down 2%), Palmer United Party (PUP) 2% (unchanged) while Independents/ Others were up 1% to 10%.
Support for PUP is highest in Clive Palmer’s home State of Queensland (4%) followed by Victoria (3%) with little support in all other states.
Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating
The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is up slightly to 90pts (up 1pt) this week. Now 44.5% (down 1%) of Australians say Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction and only 34.5% (unchanged) say Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’ – the equal lowest number of Australians saying this since June 2013 just before Julia Gillard was removed as Prime Minister and replaced by Kevin Rudd.
Analysis by Gender
Analysis by Gender now shows little difference in support but is still higher for the ALP amongst women: ALP 56.5% (down 2.5%) cf. L-NP 43.5% (up 2.5%). Support amongst men for the ALP is 55.5% (down 1%) cf. L-NP 44.5% (up 1%).
Analysis by Age group
Analysis by Age group shows the ALP still with its strongest advantage among younger Australians. 18-24yr olds heavily favour the ALP 63% cf. L-NP 37%; 25-34yr olds also heavily favour the ALP 69.5% cf. L-NP 30.5%; 35-49yr olds favour the ALP 58.5% cf. L-NP 41.5%; 50-64yr olds ALP 53% cf. L-NP 47%; and those aged 65+ still favour the L-NP 56.5% cf. ALP 43.5%.
Analysis by States
The ALP maintains a two-party preferred lead in all Australian States. Tasmania: ALP 60.5% cf. L-NP 39.5%; Queensland: ALP 60% cf. L-NP 40%; Victoria: ALP 59% cf. L-NP 41%; South Australia: ALP 58% cf. L-NP 42% and much closer in both New South Wales: ALP 51.5% cf. L-NP 48.5% and Western Australia: ALP 51% cf. L-NP 49%.
And my own favourite chart:
Still languishing in the “witch’s ditch”.
In news, the talk is all about funding now, or lack thereof, from The Australian:
The Prime Minister has been urged to fix the party following extraordinary warnings from its honorary treasurer, Philip Higginson, of a “lack of trust” with supporters because of the way the party is being run.
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Throwing weight behind the calls for change, former party treasurer Michael Yabsley told The Australian last night that the Liberals needed to act on Mr Higginson’s concerns.
…The dispute over the party’s direction is widening as Liberal MPs warn that the government’s political troubles have discouraged supporters, making it “very, very hard” to raise the funds they need to fight the next election.
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
