Cross-posted from Martin North’s DFA blog:
The ABS has announced some changes to address under reporting of First Time Buyers in their lending data. Whilst they will publish a more detailed report tomorrow, the current data understates the true position because some lenders report first time buyers based on whether they had a first time buyer grant. Many do not these days. However, they are quiet so far on the question of whether first time buyers going direct to investment properties, should be counted as we explained recently. Remember all the ABS data is based on lending counts, not property transfer information.
An investigation by the ABS has identified that data on first home buyers is under-reported, as some lenders only report loans to first home buyers who have also received a first home owner grant. Some first home buyers not eligible for the grant were incorrectly excluded.
Since a preliminary investigation was completed in October 2014, users of first home buyer statistics were advised to exercise caution in using first home buyer data until further investigations were complete.
The total value of home lending is separately reported and is not affected.
The ABS and APRA are working with lenders to ensure all loans to first home buyers are recorded in the future, regardless of whether they receive a first home owner grant or not.
In the interim, the ABS will adjust first home buyer data for this under-reporting by modelling estimates based on data provided by lenders that have reported correctly. The estimates will be updated over time as more lenders report correctly.
