ANZ: Oil impact on consumer disappointing

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From Forexlive:

  • anz1
  • ANZ Roy Morgan weekly Consumer Sentiment, for the week ended January 18 …113.6
  • prior was 112
  • Up 1.4% on the week
  • Now around its around its long-run average
  • ANZ commentary on the data:
  • Says there is often a temporary seasonal uplift in confidence in January (note that this data is not seasonally adjusted)
  • Lower petrol prices haven’t delivered as big of a bounce to confidence as expected
  • “Indeed, ‘household finances compared to a year ago’ the subindex most correlated to household consumption, fell to a four-month low last week. This suggests that it’s unclear whether we will get a meaningful lift in consumption in the near-term”

I am increasingly underwhelmed by this weekly release. The Westpac survey is less noisy and a better guide in my view.

About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.