McCrann turns doomsayer

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Terry McCrann may have no clue when it comes to climate change, but he knows a looming macro disaster when he sees it:

IT’S OVER. We haven’t reached a — arguably, the — tipping point; we’ve passed it.

…This was the real import of the September quarter GDP figures…There has been a real fall in our national living standard, and there has to be further one.

The key question, then, is whether this is only temporary, a necessary cleansing process. Provided we are prepared to take the necessary reform steps — a pretty huge question — we can then reclaim our growth in output and income.

I simply don’t think so. We can’t go back to the amazing prosperity growth we experienced in the 2000s, because China can’t go back to the rate of expansion of that period, and the developed world can’t reclaim the Great Moderation dynamic.

The second was really built on sand, while the first has now hit the non-negotiable reality of the finite bounds of geometric progression. If this is correct, we are really only at the start of a very different, poorer future.

Yep, worth reading in full, and the subject of MB’s Christmas special report to be released tomorrow.

About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.