Australian EconomyFeatured Article

Jobs chocolate wheel lands on bust

David Llewellyn-Smith
Thursday, 9 October 2014
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The Australian Bureau of Numberwang is out with its September Labour Market chocolate wheel and the pin has landed on bust:

SEPTEMBER KEY FIGURES

Aug 2014
Sep 2014
Aug 14 to Sep 14
Sep 13 to Sep 14
Trend
Employed persons (‘000)
11 599.3
11 604.9
5.6
1.2
 %
Unemployed persons (‘000)
740.9
745.5
4.6
6.7
 %
Unemployment rate (%)
6.0
6.0
0.0
 pts
0.3
 pts
Participation rate (%)
64.6
64.6
0.0
 pts
-0.2
 pts
Seasonally Adjusted
Employed persons (‘000)
11 622.2
11 592.5
-29.7
1.1
 %
Unemployed persons (‘000)
735.5
746.6
11.0
7.5
 %
Unemployment rate (%)
6.0
6.1
0.1
 pts
0.3
 pts
Participation rate (%)
64.7
64.5
-0.2
 pts
-0.2
 pts

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES (MONTHLY CHANGE)

  • Employment decreased 29,700 to 11,592,500. Full-time employment increased 21,600 to 8,028,900 and part-time employment decreased 51,300 to 3,563,600.
  • Unemployment increased 11,000 to 746,600. The number of unemployed persons looking for full-time work increased 6,600 to 525,700 and the number of unemployed persons only looking for part-time work increased 4,400 to 220,800.
  • Unemployment rate increased 0.1 pts to at 6.1% from a revised August 2014 estimate.
  • Participation rate decreased 0.2 pts to 64.5%.
  • Aggregate monthly hours worked decreased 15.0 million hours (0.9%) to 1 ,591.3 million hours.

As a quick aside, without the very recent revisions, the jobs number would have fallen 172k this month! If we accept the seasonally adjusted figures this is still a big miss versus the 15k jobs expected. Let us revert to trend where the picture is more steady:

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TREND ESTIMATES (MONTHLY CHANGE)

  • Employment increased to 11,604,900.
  • Unemployment increased to 745,500.
  • Unemployment rate remained steady at 6.0%.
  • Participation rate remained steady at 64.6%.
  • Aggregate monthly hours worked decreased 1.4 million hours (0.1%) to 1,604.2 million hours.

Penetrating the fog, this a disappointing report, especially continuing the recent weakness in hours worked. An ongoing lackluster labour market at best. The dollar fell 50 pips.

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About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.