US jobs confirm rate rises will be slow

Advertisement

The US Bureau of Labor (BLS) released its employment report Friday night and it helped defuse recent marginal tensions in expectations of rising inflation and early rate hikes (charts from Calculated Risk):

Payroll jobs added per month

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 209,000 in July, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 6.2 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for May was revised from +224,000 to +229,000, and the change for June was revised from +288,000 to +298,000. With these revisions, employment gains in May and June were 15,000 higher than previously reported.

Advertisement

From ZH comes the most important chart. Any acceleration in wages growth is conspicuously absent and, if anything, in a downtrend:

hourly earnings

The other big release on the night was the ISM manufacturing in index, which was strong, up 1.8 points to 57.1:

ertew
Advertisement
fretwr

It was the perfect combination of data to settle markets and although they sold, it was a much more calm night with the S&P off 5.5 points and bonds were bought aggressively with yields crashing at the short end and coming in nicely at the long. It was enough to push the Aussie back over 93 cents and that’s the message for the night. The US is not going to be raising rates on timetable to help the Aussie in a hurry.

About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.