The IMF has a sensible take on the Chinese economy in its latest staff report. It’s baseline scenario is for 7% growth if the reform agenda is followed with downside risks from the real estate shakeout:
Real Estate: Impact of a Market Correction
The real estate market appears to be undergoing a correction. While a slowing of investment and construction would have a significant impact on growth, an orderly adjustment is factored into the staff’s baseline scenario [7% growth in 2015].
Real estate has been a key engine of growth in China.
The full text of this article is available to MacroBusiness subscribers
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
