From Crikey’s Poll Bludger:
…The other notable feature of BludgerTrack this week is the result for Palmer United, which has tested the bounds of the error margin with an increase from 6.3% to new high of 7.5%.
Here we encounter a complication, in that the model does not account for the very different picture of Palmer United support that is apparently emerging from Newspoll. Newspoll’s published tables do not provide a dedicated result for Palmer United, but according to The Australian‘s reporting of the poll, the 16% “others” vote includes a Palmer United component amounting to “about 3.5%”.
…a distinction might be said to have opened between the party’s latent and actual support, causing its poll ratings to be highly sensitive to the way the voting intention question is asked.
Respondents to automated phone polls find themselves presented with a single list of possible responses, in which Palmer United features as one among a fairly small range of options. This serves to promote the salience of the party in the minds of undecided respondents, creating a potential for its support to be overstated. Newspoll negates this effect, perhaps excessively, with a first question that offers a choice between the Coalition parties, Labor, the Greens and “others”.
I can’t see PUP rising sustainably. It’s just too wild. But as the growing donkey vote representative he does present a problem for the establishment in that the more he is attacked the stronger he will become. Much like Pauline Hanson.
That’s the big mistake that the Murdoch house is currently making in its ceaseless campaign of character assassination on behalf of the Government:
Anti-politicians are best unseated by being ignored.
