From Roy Morgan:
The L-NP (45.5%, up 2%) has increased its support after the Abbott Government’s strong response to the downing of Malaysian Airlines flight MH17, but still trails the ALP (54.5%, down 2%) on a two-party preferred basis according to today’s multi-mode Morgan Poll conducted over the last two weekends – July 19/20 & 26/27, 2014.
This Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,296 Australian electors aged 18+. Despite the L-NP gaining on a two-party preferred basis, primary support for the ALP improved to 39% (up 0.5% from the last released Morgan Poll a fortnight ago) whilst the L-NP primary vote rose strongly to 38% (up 4%).
Support fell for all minor parties this week. The Greens fell slightly to 10.5% (down 1%), the Palmer United Party (PUP) fell 2.5% to 5% and Independents/ Others fell 1% to 7.5%.
Support for the Palmer United Party is highest in the two mining States which elected PUP Senators: Palmer’s home State of Queensland (8%) and Western Australia (7%). Support for PUP is significantly lower in New South Wales (4%), Victoria (5%), Tasmania (2%) and South Australia (2.5%).
Analysis by Gender
Analysis by Gender shows that ALP support is strongest amongst women with the ALP 59% well ahead of the L-NP 41% on a two-party preferred basis while men are almost evenly split: L-NP 50.5% cf. ALP 49.5%.
Analysis by States
The ALP maintains a two-party preferred lead in five Australian States. New South Wales: ALP 56% cf. L-NP 44%, Victoria: ALP 55% cf. L-NP 45%, Western Australia: ALP 51% cf. L-NP 49%, South Australia: ALP 58.5% cf. L-NP 41.5% and Tasmania: ALP 56% cf. L-NP 44%. In contrast, the L-NP maintains a narrow lead in Queensland after Premier Campbell Newman’s ‘mea culpa’ last week: L-NP 50.5% cf. ALP 49.5%.
Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating
The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has risen to 99.5 this week (up 9.5pts over the past fortnight). Now 41% (up 4.5%) of Australians say Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’ and 41.5% (down 5%) say Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction’. This is the highest Government Confidence Rating since mid-April when the pre-Budget rhetoric began.
The Morgan Poll surveys a larger sample (including people who only use a mobile phone) than any other public opinion poll.
Newspoll was less favourable with no change on two-party preferred but a lift for Tony’s approval
Basically, a sniff of war always delivers a poll bounce to the incumbent. In that context this looks lie a surprisingly weak swing to the Government following the MH17 tragedy.
