Pascometer burns red on neutral cash rate

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Weeoo, weeoo, weeoo.

Well, it’s confirmed now, interest rates aren’t going to get anywhere near 4% in this cycle. The Pascometer today quotes Shane Oliver to argue that that’s where they’re headed:

As you watch you may wish to recall Shane Oliver’s strange bubble two-step. In 2011, we had the same dance, with Dr Oliver describing a bubble beautifully yet unable to use the term. In 2008, Dr Oliver reckoned it was a bubble, and the valuation is much the same today.

When rates hit 3% and it starts to come apart it will no doubt be a bubble again!

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But enough truth. Let’s just be grateful that Australia’s prime contrary counter-contrarian signal generator is intact. I was becoming concerned that its frail circuits had shorted-out on some bilious power surge.

Weeoo, weeoo, weeoo.

About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.