China must slow, says IMF

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From Reuters:

China should set an economic growth target of 6.5-7 percent for 2015 and refrain from stimulus measures unless the economy threatens to slow sharply from that level, the International Monetary Fund said on Thursday.

Most of its directors hold that view, though some feel that an even-lower growth target is appropriate, the IMF said in the conclusion of its annual Article IV economic consultation with China.

“Regarding the growth target for 2015, while most directors concurred that a range of 6.5-7 percent would be consistent with the goal of transitioning to a safer and more sustainable growth path, a few other directors considered a lower target more appropriate,” the IMF said.

The IMF repeated its projection that the economic growth would dip to 7.4 percent this year, and decelerate further to 7.1 percent next year.

The IMF cut its 2014 and 2015 economic growth forecasts for China last week. It had projected in April that the world’s second-largest economy would grow 7.5 percent this year, in line with Beijing’s official target, and 7.3 percent next year.

Meh, iron ore to the moon!

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About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.