Australian Ebola a matter of time?

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Bloomberg is reporting that to Americans have fallen victim to the awful Ebola virus:

Two U.S. citizens are being treated for Ebola in Liberia, and Nigeria reported its first ever case, as the worst outbreak of the disease on record spread to Africa’s most populous nation and largest economy.

Kent Brantly is in isolation and receiving treatment, North Carolina-based Samaritan’s Purse said in a statement on its website. Brantly, a doctor, is the medical director of the aid charity’s Ebola center in Monrovia, Liberia’s capital. Nancy Writebol, who works for the manager of the hospital treating people with the virus in Liberia, has tested positive for Ebola, the charity said on the website today.

The current outbreak in West Africa is the worst on record. It is raging across three countries and is popping up in far more populous neighbouring nations. From Wikipaedia:

Guinea_Sierra_Leone_Ebola_Map_April_14_2014_png

An ongoing epidemic of the Ebola virus disease has spread throughout Guinea and beyond the nation’s borders in West Africa, particularly in Sierra Leone. The outbreak is the most severe in recorded history, both in the number of cases and fatalities.[2] At least 1094 infections and 661 deaths have been reported.[3][4] Various organizations, including the U.S. Centers for Disease Control,European Commission, and Economic Community of West African States, have donated funds and mobilized personnel to help counter the outbreak; charities including Médecins Sans Frontières and Samaritan’s Purse are also working in the area.

Diseased_Ebola_2014 Deseased_per_day_Ebola_2014

Australian miners are quite active in West Africa, though more in the neighbouring states so far as I can tell. Papillon is in Mali. Perseus is in Ghana. Equitorial and Sundance are in Republic of Congo, which seems far away, but cases are already appearing in Nigeria. Gryphon is in Burkina Fas0.

Ebola is not air transmitted thank goodness (under statement!) but it is highly contagious on contact and the current epidemic is still considered out of control. That it has recently appeared in Nigeria shows it can spread via air travel but the World Health Organisation is not yet recommending air travel restrictions:

In an effort to accelerate the response to the current EVD outbreak in West Africa, the Director General of WHO held discussions with the donor community and development partners on 24 July 2014 in Geneva. Countries and agencies again pledged their assistance and support to the outbreak and efforts are underway to secure additional human and financial resources.

The Regional Director for the Africa Region, Dr Luis Sambo, continued his fact-finding mission in the three affected countries. After visiting Liberia earlier in the week (21 – 22 July), he visited Sierra Leone (22 – 23 July) and Guinea (23 – 25 July). The goal of his visits was to assess first-hand the EVD outbreak, review the current response and challenges, and explore the best ways to rapidly contain the outbreak in West Africa. Official meetings with Presidents, Ministers of Health and other senior government officials, international and local NGOs, UN agencies, and other stakeholders were held.

During the mission, the Regional Director underscored the seriousness of the outbreak while reiterating that it can be contained using known infection prevention and control measures. He observed that the outbreak is beyond each national health sector alone and urged the governments of the affected countries to mobilize and involve all sectors, including civil society and communities, in the response. He requested the respective governments to re-deploy adequate and appropriate national staff and other national resources to the field level and promote behavioural change while respecting cultural practices.

He repeated the mandate to countries to enhance cross-border collaboration and strengthen effective coordination and the mandate of WHO to coordinate the response to public health emergencies. On behalf of WHO, the Regional Director pledged WHO’s continued commitment to the affected countries and reaffirmed its role in engaging and mobilizing the international community in support of national efforts to control the EVD outbreak.

On 24 July 2014, the Prime Minister of Guinea and the Regional Director officially inaugurated the WHO Sub-regional Outbreak Coordination Centre (SEOCC) in Conakry. The Centre will consolidate and harmonize the technical support at local, country, regional, and international level. WHO has asked its partners to deploy representatives from their respective organizations to sit in the hub and contribute to the activities of the coordination centre. The establishment of the SEOCC was a follow-up action from the emergency Ministerial Meeting held in Accra, Ghana, earlier in the month.

Efforts are currently ongoing to scale up and strengthen all aspects of the response in the three countries, including contact tracking, public information and community mobilization, case management and infection prevention and control, and coordination.

WHO does not recommend any travel or trade restrictions be applied to Guinea, Liberia, or Sierra Leone based on the current information available for this event.

Disease update

New cases and deaths attributable to EVD continue to be reported by the Ministries of Health in the three West African countries of Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone. Between 21 and 23 July 2014, 108 new cases of EVD, including 12 deaths, were reported from the three countries as follows: Guinea, 12 new cases and 5 deaths; Liberia, 25 new cases with 2 deaths; and Sierra Leone, 71 new cases and 5 death. These numbers include laboratory-confirmed, probable, and suspect cases and deaths of EVD.

As of 23 July 2014, the cumulative number of cases attributed to EVD in the three countries stands at 1 201, including 672 deaths. The distribution and classification of the cases are as follows: Guinea, 427 cases (311 confirmed, 99 probable, and 17 suspected) and 319 deaths (208 confirmed, 99 probable, and 12 suspected); Liberia, 249 cases (84 confirmed, 84 probable, and 81 suspected) and 129 deaths (60 confirmed, 50 probable, and 19 suspected); and Sierra Leone, 525 cases (419 confirmed, 56 probable, and 50 suspected) and 224 deaths (188 confirmed, 33 probable, and 3 suspected).

One would have thought this containable over time but the country’s involved are so poor and porous that it bears very close watching.

About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.