The ANZ’s quarterly property industry survey is out and they’re a little less happy:
The Australian Property Confidence Index fell 1 point to 131 in the September Quarter. While this is down from the high of 140 in Q1 of this year, it remains higher than a year ago (121) and well above the levels recorded for much of the past three years (see Figure 1). Confidence across the residential and non-residential property sectors remains strong, is more positive than broader business confidence, and is in stark contrast to the recent weakness in consumer confidence.
• NSW remains the stand out State for property industry confidence. It rose 3 pointsto 143 and is just shy of the high of 147 recorded in Q1. Confidence in Queensland and Tasmania also rose in the quarter and both States have index readings above the national average (see Figure 1). The ACT is the only region experiencing soft confidence with an index reading of 101. Most indicators of confidence and activity in the ACT weakened in the quarter, consistent with the reception to the Commonwealth Budget delivered in May.
• The survey shows some moderation in housing market sales in recent months. Nonetheless, the housing market outlook remains positive, reflecting elevated auction clearance rates and home sales, solid house price gains and strong dwelling approvals. In addition, the latest Property Council-ANZ Survey also reveals solid foreign investor housing sales, particularly in New South Wales and Victoria.
• The detail within the report remains strong. All questions relating to firms’ own activity, such as hiring intentions and forward work schedule, are all at high levels. This is consistent with expected strong construction activity in the major metropolitan centres over the next year. This should support employment growth and eventually a broadening of the non-mining recovery.
And then there is this:
The survey doesn’t say if the buying is in new or existing properties, a rather serious oversight.
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
