From Moodys last night:
Moody‘s Investors Service says that Australia’s economic growth in 2014 has so far been resilient and expects expansion of2.6%-3.0% per annum over the next five years. Moreover, Moody‘s believes that near-term growth appears to be driven primarily by domestic consumption, rather than exports and resource investment.
Moody‘s conclusions were contained in its just-released credit analysis “Australia”, which looks at the country’s credit profile in terms of Economic Strength [assessed as “very high (+)”]; Institutional Strength [“very high (+)”]; Fiscal Strength [“very high (+)”]; and Susceptibility to Event Risk [“very low (+)”].
These represent the four main analytic factors in Moody‘s Sovereign Bond Rating Methodology. The analysis constitutes an annual update to investors and is not a rating action. Australia is rated Aaa with a stable outlook.
At the same time, Moody‘s notes that the relative stability of Australia’s consumer confidence indicators in the last several years is remarkable, given the headwinds that Australian households have been facing. Most notably, the strong gains in consumer-driven economic activity coincided with rising unemployment and deleveraging in the private sector, although these trends were, nonetheless, counteracted by sustained earnings growth, cheap credit and a positive wealth effect from rising housing prices.
The latter trend poses some medium-term risks as Australia’s real estate market may be overheating, with both price-to-income and price-to-rent ratios reaching levels well above historical averages. Housing prices continued to rise in Q1 2014 as average year-over-year growth in the eight largest cities inched up to 8.3%, marking the highest growth rate in nearly four years. After considering supply-side constraints, the influx of foreign capital and the fact that monetary policy is set to remain accommodative for the foreseeable future, the housing market appears to be increasingly likely to get caught up in a positive price-feedback loop and eventually could face a correction.
Re-accelerating housing credit suggests that monetary factors, especially record-low interest rates, are playing a prominent role in fueling the housing market trends. In terms of volumes, however, rising housing prices have not so far resulted in a construction boom: residential construction activity remains largely in line with demand trends. This, along with still historically low leverage levels, strong mortgage buffers, and well-capitalized banking system, limits the impact of a potential real estate market contraction on the broader economy.
Moody’s has clearly not been listening to our regulators:
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