The Australian National Accounts, to be released on Wednesday June 4, will provide the March quarter GDP figure. Here’s Westpac’s preview:
The economy gained momentum at the turn of the year. GDP growth printed at 0.8% in Q4 and we anticipate a 0.9% increase in Q1. That is an improvement from an average of 0.65% over the initial three quarters of 2013.
Risks to our 0.9% forecast would appear to be skewed to the upside, gauging from available information on the expenditure components. However, this is tempered by other indicators, such as private business surveys.
Our forecast for Q1 GDP growth of 0.9% lifts annual growth from 2.8% to a “trend” 3.2%, the first result at 3% or above since 2012 Q3, when mining investment peaked.
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
