I haven’t seen this report but it agrees with my own analysis completely. From the AFR:
US exports of liquefied natural gas are likely to undercut the most expensive Australian projects by about 30 per cent, providing healthy margins for owners of the US projects, according to JPMorgan.
…It estimates unit costs for Chevron’s $US54 billion Gorgon LNG project in Western Australia, for example, are approaching $US3500 per annual tonne of capacity, while the cheapest US projects are down at $US2300 per annual tonne, including the investment required in upstream gas.
…JPMorgan estimates that by 2018-19, Australian LNG capacity could top 86 million tonnes a year, surpassing Qatar’s current capacity of 77.5 million tonnes a year, which it said is unlikely to increase.
Only 30% cheaper! And remember, Gorgon is cheaper than four of the magnificently expensive seven:
If the US does deliver 80+ million tonnes per annum then the IEA sees the LNG price falling to $12:
Some estimate the QLD projects have a break even more like $14. It’s no fun being the marginal producer in any commodity market.
