Like it or lump it, Bill Shorten, the Kingslayer himself, is now Labor leader. I’m no great fan. Shorten has never impressed me with his vision not grasp of reason and was the key player in the assassination of two Labor Prime Ministers. The public seems to expect less from their leaders than I so perhaps they’ll forgive Mr Shorten sooner. Leadership itself is a halo that can elevate a candidate so let’s see.
On Shorten’s contextual prospects his chances are good. The Abbott Government has picked up where the Gillard/Rudd Government left off. At this point, it has no economic narrative of substance (or even cogency). It simultaneously supports debt and austerity; reining in entitlements while expanding them; surpluses and bigger deficits; an ongoing mining boom yet the need for infrastructure stimulus; greater competitiveness yet higher house prices, greater competition yet duopolies, and on it goes. Being “open for business” is a nothing phrase backed by nothing policy and reeks of ongoing stakeholder management not reform.
After the election and as housing bubbles, we’re enjoying a moment of economic sunshine. But, don’t be fooled, it’s going to pass next year as the terms of trade fall resumes, the capex cliff steepens and, if we get that far, the private sector runs short of credit to fuel the recovery. The carbon and mining tax abolitions will achieve nothing.
That will make an already remarkably unpopular Abbott Government – with the shortest poll honeymoon anyone can remember – quite vulnerable. The failure to explain where the economy is going, both historically and in the cycle, means the Libs will catch the same pox that the Gillard/Swan team did. The polity will struggle to connect its own dour circumstances with the rhetoric of being “open for business” or whatever new phrase is concocted to cover the absence of serious policy engagement.
What Australia actually needs – and most people know it their bones – is a serious reform agenda that tackles high private debt, competitiveness, an overly high dollar, fading non-resource tradables, and productivity. That should be Shorten’s agenda. As tough as the medicine is, it will actually make sense in reference to standards of living that just won’t budge. Shorten should not fall for the cyclical sugar hit of house prices underway now. That will fade. If he sticks with the structural forces in play then the Kingslayer can become the visionary.
The early signs are not great, from the AFR this morning:
Bill Shorten has attempted to recast Labor’s image as a party of “optimism” making a clean break with its past on his first morning as leader, hinting the new frontbench team to be voted upon later today will likely include a high number of women.
…“I’m an optimist and I also believe in hard work, and having a positive view and good things to say about people rather than negative things in the long run pays off.”
“I think the way Gough Whitlam rebuilt Labor in the late 60s to be a modern party, that process of modernisation and having policies which spoke to all Australians, that is part of a style I admire.”
Optimism and Whitlam, meh.
Without some serious economic thought, which is not “negative” but is a huge challenge, Shorten will be just another populist managing the decline of the nation. And assuming Abbott can hold his team together, and the Kingslayer doesn’t prove to be some charismatic wunderkind, then he has little chance of success.
