The September quarter balance of payments figures are out and nobody will be surprise to see a blowout in the current account to -14.9 billion from a revised higher deficit of -12.3 billion in June:
On the back of an envelope, the CAD is now running around 5% of GDP if annualised. that might sustainable but you would not want to see it get much worse in the post-GFC environment of jumpy ratings agencies. Here are the internals:
For the purposes of GDP, net exports were up very slightly at 0.1% slightly better than the expected zilch. Dollar dropped 10 pips.
I am expecting a TOT crisis in about 3-5 years, maybe its coming sooner.
Data is too late to stop the interest rate cut.
Stop it? Have you seen building approvals?
What exactly would a TOT crisis entail for the average person? I think this could be a good article for the website.
Yeah Gotta keep the Real Estate bubbling no matter what.
The general trend of interest rates has been down over the last few years. Eventually you will hit the zero bound. What do you propose to do then and why not do it now before we hit the dead end?
“Stop it? Have you seen building approvals?”
Yeah, they’re up 14.5% YoY!
is it true to say that given our large overseas debt that lower rates contribute to a lower CA deficit. If this is the case then we are getting a whole lot worse despite lowering rates. What will it look like if mortgage rates are back at 8-9%?
“Bloody scary” – also if the value of the AUD drops as well.
SquirellNo lowering rates doesn’t lower the CAD. Lower rates tend to increase a CAD.
With mortgage raters at 8 to 9%, other things being equal, the CAD would likely be a lot less.
With all this kind of info, it makes it hard to see how a 0.25% will not occur, at a minimum…?
FFS… a CAD blow out is a reason NOT to cut.
Larfs…I just realised what FFS is! Sometimes I’m a bit slow!
Understand your frustration Patrician!
lol
Google search is often useful.
FFS gives 33,600,000 results…some of which provide a clue.
Is like to send a stfu to 3D and PF sometimes
WTB (want to buy) a filter commentor button ie add to ignore list.
That said I’m not a fan of censorship but for the special few is push the boat out. Lol
Australian consumption is just like Mr Creosote…
‘juts a little more, its wafer thin’
then boom
+100
Winner of best comment and analogy goes to you Sir!
Your prize?
100bp cut next year.
Hell Lower interest rates and a higher CAD!
Whocoodanode?
Lucky we got some more mines and good Ag land to flog to the foreigners to pay for our imports. No worries! Drop interest rates! Let’s party!
Almost time for another Buy Australian campaign.
Only need to work out what is left that is made here.
kangaroo turd
The best you can do now Neznam is to label it “Made in China for XYZ Pty Ltd. An Australian Owned Company”
… financed by foreign bankers.
Time is ripe for the big 4 banks to start buying foreign banks…