Has China’s realty bounce peaked (already?)

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New home prices in China rose in 31 out of 70 cities according to the National Bureau of Statistics yesterday, down from 35 out of 70 cities in August.

Of 70 cities, 17 of them saw new home prices flat, up from 16 cities in August, while 22 of cities saw new home prices falling, up from 19 cities in August.

Although not very reliable, the data suggest that although the real estate market continues to “recover”, the “recovery” is probably moderating.

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Also out yesterday, China’s real estate investment increased by 15.4% for January-September, slightly down from 15.6% year on year for January-August.

Residential new housing start in terms of floor area were –12.9% yoy for January-September, down from –11.1% yoy for January-August. For September alone, residential housing start decreased by 28.07% yoy, down from +4.96% yoy in August.

Meanwhile, residential housing sales in terms of floor area was –4.3% yoy for January-September, up from –4.8% yoy for January-August. However, for September alone, sales in terms of area were –1.6% yoy, down from +13.3% yoy in August, reflecting the weak start of the peak season of September and October after some strong pick-up during the summer:

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Source: National Bureau of Statistics

About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.