Moody’s downgrades the global financial system

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Wow. Moody’s has downgraded pretty much all of the major capital markets banks in one go. These are the banks that form the money centres that are, in effect, the liberalised global financial system. By that I mean they are the market making conduits through which the savings of one country are recycled as the borrowing’s of another country, both public and private, through endless mechanisms both on balance sheet and off. So it is a downgrade to that system itself, which is long overdue.

New York, June 21, 2012 — Moody’s Investors Service today repositioned the ratings of 15 banks and securities firms with global capital markets operations. The long-term senior debt ratings of 4 of these firms were downgraded by 1 notch, the ratings of 10 firms were downgraded by 2 notches and 1 firm was downgraded by 3 notches. In addition, for four firms, the short-term ratings of their operating companies were downgraded to Prime-2. All four of those firms also now have holding company short-term ratings at Prime-2. The holding company short-term ratings of another two firms were downgraded to Prime-2 as well.

“All of the banks affected by today’s actions have significant exposure to the volatility and risk of outsized losses inherent to capital markets activities”, says Moody’s Global Banking Managing Director Greg Bauer. “However, they also engage in other, often market leading business activities that are central to Moody’s assessment of their credit profiles. These activities can provide important ‘shock absorbers’ that mitigate the potential volatility of capital markets operations, but they also present unique risks and challenges.” The specific credit drivers for each affected firm are summarized below.

Today’s rating actions conclude the review initiated on 15 February 2012 when Moody’s announced a ratings review prompted by itsreassessment of the volatility and risks that creditors of firms with global capital markets operations face. In the past, these risks have led many institutions to fail or to require outside support, including several firms affected by today’s rating actions. Today’s actions, however, reflect not only the credit implications of capital markets operations. They also reflect (i) the size and stability of earnings from non-capital markets activities of each firm, (ii) capitalization, (iii) liquidity buffers, and (iv) other considerations, including, as applicable, exposure to the operating environment in Europe, any record of risk management problems, and risks from exposure to US residential mortgages, commercial real estate or legacy portfolios.

OVERVIEW OF TODAY’S RATING ACTIONS
Moody’s has taken action on the following holding company ratings:
Bank of America Corporation
Long-term senior unsecured debt to Baa2 from Baa1, outlook negative; Short-term P-2 affirmed
Barclays plc
Long-term issuer rating to A3 from A1, outlook negative; Short-term to P-2 from P-1
Citigroup Inc.
Long-term senior debt to Baa2 from A3, outlook negative; short-term P-2 affirmed
Credit Suisse Group AG
Provisional senior debt to (P)A2 from (P)Aa2, outlook stable; Provisional Short-term (P)P-1 affirmed
The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.
Long-term senior unsecured debt to A3 from A1, outlook negative; Short-term to P-2 from P-1
HSBC Holdings plc
Long-term senior debt to Aa3 from Aa2, outlook negative; Provisional Short-term (P)P-1 affirmed
JPMorgan Chase & Co.
Long-term senior debt to A2 from Aa3, outlook negative; Short-term P-1 affirmed
Morgan Stanley
Long-term senior unsecured debt to Baa1 from A2; outlook negative; Short-term to P-2 from P-1
Royal Bank of Scotland Group plc
Long-term senior debt to Baa1 from A3, outlook negative; Short-term P-2 affirmed
Moody’s has taken action on the following operating company ratings:
Bank of America, N.A.
Long-term deposit rating to A3 from A2, outlook stable; Short-term to P-2 from P-1
Barclays Bank plc
Long-term issuer rating to A2 from Aa3, outlook negative; Short-term P-1 affirmed
BNP Paribas
Long-term debt and deposit rating to A2 from Aa3; outlook stable; Short-term P-1 affirmed
Citibank, N.A.
Long-term deposit rating to A3 from A1, outlook stable; Short-term to P-2 from P-1
Credit Agricole S.A.
Long-term debt and deposit rating to A2 from Aa3, outlook negative; Short-term P-1 affirmed
Credit Suisse AG
Long-term deposit and senior debt rating to A1 from Aa1, outlook stable; Short-term P-1 affirmed
Deutsche Bank AG
Long-term deposit rating to A2 from Aa3, outlook stable; Short-term P-1 affirmed
Goldman Sachs Bank USA
Long-term deposit rating to A2 from Aa3, outlook stable; Short-term P-1 affirmed
HSBC Bank plc

About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.