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US Economy
Betting markets back Biden
Goldman with the update.
David Llewellyn-Smith
5 days ago
10
US CPI preview
Goldman with the note. We expect a 0.27% increase in March core CPI (vs. 0.3% consensus), corresponding to a year-over-year rate of 3.70% (vs. 3.7% consensus). We expect a 0.29% increase in March headline CPI (vs. 0.3% consensus), which corresponds to a year-over-year rate of 3.37% (vs. 3.4% consensus).
David Llewellyn-Smith
24 days ago
1
The future belongs to America
HSBC with the note.
David Llewellyn-Smith
1 month ago
11
Trying (and failing) to correct
The Market Ear with the latest equity positioning.
David Llewellyn-Smith
2 months ago
3
US Fed preview
Morgan Stanley’s Ellen Zenter has been good on the Fed in recent times.
David Llewellyn-Smith
2 months ago
1
Australian dollar squashed by US inflation
David Llewellyn-Smith
2 months ago
2
US CPI preview
The big one for tomorrow via Goldman Sachs. We expect a 0.32% increase in February core CPI (vs. 0.3% consensus), corresponding to a year-over-year rate of 3.71% (vs. 3.7% consensus). We expect a 0.44% increase in February headline CPI (vs. 0.4% consensus), which corresponds to a year-over-year rate of 3.15% (vs. 3.1% consensus).
David Llewellyn-Smith
2 months ago
4
Trumps odds lift on Supreme Court
This is not good: The US supreme court agreed on Wednesday to take up the unprecedented claim that Donald Trump has absolute immunity from prosecution in the criminal case over his efforts to overturn the 2020 election results, throwing into jeopardy whether it goes to trial before the 2024 election.
David Llewellyn-Smith
2 months ago
3
OER you kidding me?
OER is the core of the bullish equity market trade.
David Llewellyn-Smith
2 months ago
1
Previewing US inflation
BofA is good at it. A“good-enough”report The January Consumer Price Index (CPI) report should show ongoing progress on inflation. We forecast headline and core CPI rose by 0.2% m/m (0.16% unrounded) and 0.3% (0.29% unrounded) respectively.
David Llewellyn-Smith
3 months ago
US credit recovery continues
US bank lending continues to putative recovery: Large and small: Year on year is still bouncing along the bottom: SLOOS is increasingly supportive as well.
David Llewellyn-Smith
3 months ago
1
What is the Trump trade?
UBS with the note.
David Llewellyn-Smith
3 months ago
4
US credit recovery continues
US bank credit is off and running: Large and small: Yea on year has bottomed: There is a problem ahead.
David Llewellyn-Smith
3 months ago
US rate cuts imminent
US inflation is done. Goldman: The core PCE price index rose 0.17% month-on-month in December, which lowered the year-on-year rate to 2.93% (down from a peak of 5.57%).
David Llewellyn-Smith
3 months ago
3
US credit recovery begins
David Llewellyn-Smith
3 months ago
2
Will Trump win a second term?
It’s been obvious for ages that Trump would win the GOP nomination.
David Llewellyn-Smith
4 months ago
20
US credit stalls again
US bank credit is approaching a critical milestone going backwards: The pivot point is March when the Fed’s Bank Term Funding Program is installed after SVB last year expires.
David Llewellyn-Smith
4 months ago
US credit green shoots?
David Llewellyn-Smith
4 months ago
1
Fed to end QT
TS Lombard with the note.
David Llewellyn-Smith
4 months ago
1
Previewing US CPI
Morgan Stanley with the note. Core inflation moves sideways in December, at 0.28%M (vs 0.28%M prior, and 0.2%M consensus).
David Llewellyn-Smith
4 months ago
2
Get ready for interest rate cuts
US shares rose and bond yields fell sharply after the US Federal Reserve held interest rates steady and signalled that its policy tightening of the last two years is at an end.
Leith van Onselen
5 months ago
11
US financial stress mounts
Cross-posted from ZH.
David Llewellyn-Smith
5 months ago
US credit crunch casualties mount
David Llewellyn-Smith
5 months ago
Unhappy Americans point to Trump victory
TS Lombard with the terrifying analysis. November consumer sentiment as tracked by the Conference Board was released and the spread between present and future expectations point to recession, perhaps one is already underway yet undated (doubtful).
David Llewellyn-Smith
5 months ago
5
2024 the year of interest rate cuts
Except for Alboflated Australia, of course, where falling living standards will include lower wage growth, rising unemployment.
David Llewellyn-Smith
5 months ago
2
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