DXY sagged Friday night:
AUD is still caught in a neutral wedge but momentum is higher:
CFTC shorts got shot:
JPY shorts got shot:
Normally, gold would be lifting and oil rising. Not in this upside down world:
Dirt did OK:
And miners:
EM is breaking out:
Junk is giving the all-clear:
Yields fell:
Lifting stocks:
The NFP killed the no-landing fantasy, coming well below consensus:
Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 175,000 in April, and the unemployment rate changed little at 3.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care, in social assistance, and in transportation and warehousing.
…The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for February was revised down by 34,000, from +270,000 to +236,000, and the change for March was revised up by 12,000, from +303,000 to +315,000. With these revisions, employment in February and March combined is 22,000 lower than previously reported.
Don’t get me wrong, this is shaping as a feather bed landing for the US labour market. But it is still a landing of sorts, aided by unusually high immigration (for the US, not Australia).
But it is not a “no landing” with the global economy launching off into the stratosphere and taking inflation with it.
Globally, we have a stumbling lift in industrial activity at best, after two years of going backwards:
And slowly ebbing US wags should pull down services inflation over time.
US rate cuts are still coming this year. On balance, this is bearish DXY but it depends upon how other banks participate in the easing.
AUD is beholden to Albo’s extreme population growth stagflation so AUD has a shot at rising towards 70 cents in H2 as hunting season opens on the big bear short.
