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Expats to mitigate property bust?

Via REA: Overseas searches for Australian property are spiking as expats eye a return home. COVID-19 has led to strong growth in interest from overseas property seekers in buying Australian property, with search activity increasing by 42 per cent since Australia’s lockdown began in March. Unlike previous spikes in offshore search, which were largely driven

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Second EOFY run on superannuation funds

Via the ABC: Desperate times have seen many Australians raid their superannuation accounts to the tune of the maximum $20,000 early withdrawal since the coronavirus pandemic struck. Sam Espie lost his financial services job in March when the COVID-19 shutdowns hit home. The business he worked for did not qualify for JobKeeper so, naturally, he

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Inside Australia’s unemployment disaster

As summarised earlier, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) today released its labour force report for June, which registered a 0.3% increase in the official unemployment rate to 7.4% despite a 210,800 rebound in jobs: Full-time jobs fell by 38,100, whereas part-time employment rose by 249,000: The participation rate rebounded 1.3% to 63.97%, which is

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Kanye drops out as Biden crusies to victory

What a bummer: On July 4, Kanye West tweeted that he was running for president. It was treated as one of his typical grandiloquent pronouncements. The tweet sparked a lot of opinion pieces, cable news segments, and even a question in an Oval Office interview with Donald Trump. But most people brushed it off. In a follow-up interview with Forbes, West pledged,

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Aussie property sentiment collapses

The latest ANZ-PCA survey has been released, which remains deeply negative: Whereas house price expectations remain firmly negative across all jurisdictions, except South Australia: According to ANZ: The ANZ-Property Council Survey for the September quarter showed a modest improvement in sentiment across Australia’s property sectors, although it remains deep in negative territory as COVID-19 and

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China threatens iron ore again

Via The Australian: China has warned Australia that excessive anti-dumping complaints by BlueScope Steel threaten our industry and crucial iron ore exports. …In its submission, the Chinese government said: “China would also like to remind Australia that taking trade remedy measures for similar products intensively may raise the price of relevant products, which will cause

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Used car prices set to soar

Via Moodys: Wholesale used-vehicle prices rose to all-time highs across Australia in June. Following a record-breaking monthly increase in May, June doubled down on the historic gains. Used vehicle prices were up 11% from May to June and a mind-boggling 23% from the lows reached in April, according to the Datium Insights–Moody’s Analytics Price Index

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ABS delivers more unemployment bull

Perhaps it should shut: SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES Employment increased 210,800 to 12,328,500 people. Full-time employment decreased 38,100 to 8,489,100 people and part-time employment increased 249,000 to 3,839,400 people. Unemployment increased 69,300 to 992,300 people. Unemployment rate increased 0.4 pts to 7.4%. Underemployment rate decreased 1.4 pts to 11.7%. Underutilisation rate decreased 1.0 pts to 19.1%.

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The RBA needs Operation Twist

Via Bloomie: While bets on steepening yield curves are growing in popularity, money can also be made in countries that already have one and that’s drawing investors Down Under. Thanks to Australia’s yield-curve control policy, its bonds have the steepest curve among major sovereign markets, according to two- and 10-year note data compiled by Bloomberg.

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Stage 4 beckons as Victoria records 317 new COVID-19 infections

The nightmare has deepened with Victoria registering a record 317 new COVID-19 infections: NSW recorded 10 new cases over the past 24 hours. There are now 2,118 active cases of COVID-19 in Victoria, 96% of the nation’s total: The curve in Victoria remains frightening: All because the incompetent Andrews Government bungled hotel quarantine. Brace for

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An ode to Jacinda Adern

It is fair to say that MB has had a love hate relationship with New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Adern. When she became New Zealand’s 40th Prime Minister on 19 October 2017, we were enamoured by her excellent and comprehensive election platform. Among other things, Adern promised to fix New Zealand’s chronic housing affordability problem

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Morrison Government throws bone to vocational education

The Australian reports that the federal government will today announce a new jobs and skills package that is aimed at younger workers. Amongst other things, the government will spend an additional $1.5 billion over six months on wage subsidies for apprentices. It is estimated that about 100,000 apprentices will benefit from the new package, which

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Seek job ads continue to recover

From Seek: OVERVIEW OF JUNE 2020 STATE OF THE NATION: SEEK job ads are up by 41.5% month on month SEEK job ads are down 32.8% year on year The sectors making the largest contribution to month-on-month job ad growth are: Trades & Services (51%), Healthcare & Medical (34%) and Hospitality & Tourism (80%) STATE

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The international students bubble bursts

A bubble it was. It’s a clear imbalance when foreign kiddies made up a third of some suburbs, via The Conversation: International students made up more than 30% of the population in some Australian suburbs, before borders closed to prevent the spread of COVID-19. The Mitchell Institute mapped where international students lived using data from the ABS

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  Stocks shot out of the gate on the European open last night, and technically price charts are exhibiting breakouts across the risk complex, but sentiment remains complicated at the US earnings season gets underway. Risk was pushed higher on bullish vaccine news, not anything substantial like the slowing of US consumer spending

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Fitch: Aussie property to sink in 2020

Fitch Ratings forecasts that Australian property will be among the hardest hit by COVID-19 in 2020, with values predicted to decline by 5% to 10% this calendar year: Nominal home prices will fall in the UK, Spain and Australia in the rest of 2020 due to the impact of the coronavirus pandemic… Under Fitch’s new

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Australia’s housing oversupply swells

With yesterday’s release of dwelling commencement and completions data for the March quarter, it is once again time to examine how Australia’s dwelling supply is tracking against population growth. The below charts track the following, which are based on the latest available quarterly data: Dwelling approvals to March 2020; Dwelling commencements to March 2020; Dwelling

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Labor women discover immigration class war

Leith reported yesterday on the terrific shift by Jacinda Ardern against temporary migration: Both big and small companies are scrambling to hang on to their workforces, with thousands of temporary resident visas set to expire all at once…. There were about 350,000 temporary visa holders in the country during the lockdown, and the government estimated

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The future is grim for shopping malls

Australia’s retail sector was already facing tough conditions before the arrival of COVID-19. Retail sales volumes were running well below average in the year to March 2020: And real household consumption recorded its first annual decline since the Global Financial Crisis: The picture has obviously darkened considerably amid the onset of COVID-19. Shutdowns closed ‘non-essential’

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Links 16 July 2020

Global Macro / Markets / Investing: Federal Reserve’s $3 trillion virus rescue inflates market bubbles – Yahoo It’s time for investors to stop buying stocks that are ‘stunningly decoupled’ from reality, economist warns – MarketWatch Federal Reserve’s $3 trillion virus rescue inflates market bubbles – Reuters The crisis is the perfect time to raise wages

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Macro Afternoon

by Chris Becker Outside of China, stocks have continued their strong surge on the hopes of a coronavirus vaccine and for a strong showing in US earnings. Gold remains elevated above the $1800USD per ounce level while Bitcoin is struggling again at a new daily low. In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite is down nearly

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CCP police threaten Chinese Australians

Alarming video footage has leaked of Chinese Communist Party (CCP) police threatening Chinese Australians that speak out against the authoritarian Xi Jinping regime: The #CCP will hunt you down wherever you go: Witness this video of a Chinese police officer threatening @Horror_Zoo, who lives in Australia, over her tweets about Xi Jinping. CCP insinuates it

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Brace for dividend shock

Via Bloomie: Australia’s largest companies are expected to slash dividend payouts over the August reporting season by the most since the global financial crisis as the coronavirus pandemic eroded corporate balance sheets. Payments from firms on the S&P/ASX 200 index may plunge as much as 40% in 2020, before declining another 11% in 2021, according

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Magnificent Jacinda Adern drops hammer on temporary work visas

New Zealand’s Adern Government has taken the sensible step of restricting temporary visa numbers to ensure that foreign labour does not compete against unemployed New Zealanders: Both big and small companies are scrambling to hang on to their workforces, with thousands of temporary resident visas set to expire all at once…. There were about 350,000

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Melbourne’s property prices are crashing

Melbourne dwelling values are falling fast, according to CoreLogic’s daily index. We are only half way through July and Melbourne values have already fallen by 0.67%: On a quarterly basis, Melbourne dwelling values have fallen by 3.0%, double Sydney’s decline: And since peaking on 6 April, Melbourne dwelling values have fallen by 3.2%, almost double