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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  Friday night saw a relatively good end to a hectic week across risk markets with European stocks playing catchup while Wall Street lifted slightly, its optimism about economic life opening contained somewhat by the growing China/US trade dispute, nevermind the pandemic issues. Gold continued its significant breakout as all central banks seem

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ScoMo edges ahead in Newspoll

He would have to pretty pissed if he didn’t given the virus outcome: Popular support for the federal Coalition has climbed to its highest level since last September ahead of a looming by-election in Eden-Monaro, as Scott Morrison cemented record approval ratings for his leadership during the COVID-19 crisis. An exclusive Newspoll conducted for The

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Australia has the whip hand on China Trade

The Chinese Government has threatened trade sanctions if the Australia continues its push for an independent inquiry into the origins and response to the Wuhan Coronavirus pandemic: High-ranking calls to China have gone unanswered amid an escalating trade dispute with Australia that’s been fuelled by calls to investigate the origins of the deadly coronavirus pandemic.

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Chinese property buyers “surge”

It’s comical sometimes, at News: A surge in interest from Chinese investors has sparked renewed fears foreign buyers will drive up the price of Australian housing and leave local first home buyers out in the cold. The Australian property sector has been battered during the coronavirus pandemic as unemployment soars, border closures limit access for

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Auction market fails to launch post lockdown

CoreLogic’s preliminary auction report, released yesterday, was another lacklustre affair with a preliminary clearance of 64.0% recorded nationally off auction volumes that were around 40% of last year’s level: As shown in the next table, Sydney led the way recording both the highest preliminary clearance rate as well as the highest volumes: This is because

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More doubts about wet market virus source

From BioRvix comes the new study: In a side-by-side comparison of evolutionary dynamics between the 2019/2020 SARS-CoV-2 and the 2003 SARS-CoV, we were surprised to find that SARS-CoV-2 resembles SARS-CoV in the late phase of the 2003 epidemic after SARS-CoV had developed several advantageous adaptations for human transmission. Our observations suggest that by the time

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Universities sold their soul for Chinese international students

Drew Pavlou, the student facing expulsion from the University of Queensland (UQ) over its sordid links with the Chinese Communist Party (see here, here and here), has penned an article in Foreign Policy on how Australia’s universities have ditched their values in pursuit of the Chinese student dollar: After being an outspoken campus critic of

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Links 18 May 2020

Global Macro / Markets / Investing: Whistleblower: Wall Street Has Engaged in Widespread Manipulation of Mortgage Funds – Pro Publica Mortgage delinquencies caused by the coronavirus will exceed Great Recession levels, according to this forecast – MarketWatch Is the stock market experiencing the dreaded ‘dead cat bounce’? – Forbes Bruegel: Save markets to save the

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Sunday Supplement: 17 May 2020

‘Ringbarked Trees with Birds’, Henri Bastin, 1969, Art Gallery of NSW   Macro & Markets Pandemic Bills Are So Big That Only Money-Printing Can Pay Them – Bloomberg US could cut ties with China over coronavirus, ‘save $500 billion’: Trump – DW Thermal coal spot price tumbles 25 per cent, putting pressure on some producers

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Weekend Reading 16-17 May 2020

Global Macro / Markets / Investing: How the COVID-19 Bailout Gave Wall Street a No-Lose Casino – Rolling Stone The Death of the Central Bank Myth: For decades, monetary policy has been treated as technical, not political. The pandemic has ended that illusion forever. – Foreign Policy Why is Wall Street smiling when the economy

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Macro Afternoon

A somewhat mixed day here in Asia with Chinese shares pulling back on the brouhaha developing between The Middle Kingdom and the Flailing Empire as Trump again ramps up the rhetoric on trade and other measures. The USD is strengthening somewhat going into the European open while gold continues to advance after its breakout last

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Property ponzi ‘doomed without migrants’

Amid the plunge in new home sales: Australia’s property lobby has demanded the Morrison Government throw open the doors to international students and permanent migrants: Property Council of Australia chief executive Ken Morrison told The Australian student accom­modation underpinned several markets and the wider sector would not recover in the near term without an influx

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Foxtel can’t compete in crowded streaming market

Foxtel is now reportedly beta testing its new streaming service Binge, which will provide ‘box set’ access to popular shows like Game of Thrones, The Sopranos, Big Little Lies, Succession, and True detective. The new Binge service is set to launch in a few weeks and will be priced to compete head-to-head with online streaming

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Industry superannuation funds scream “sovereign risk”

Industry superannuation funds claim the Morrison Government’s early release policy has raised “sovereign risk” and will hamper returns in the future: “Clearly the government has changed the rules and super funds now need to factor in sovereign risk [the danger of governments acting precipitously],” [HostPlus CEO David Elia] said. “That means funds will carry higher

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Delusional ACTU pushes 4% minimum wage hike

Australian Chamber of Commerce & Industry (ACCI) CEO, James Pearson, says the latest jobs data underlines the need for the minimum wage to remain unchanged in 2020. He warns that an increase in the minimum wage would jeopardise more jobs. Fair Work Commission president Ian Ross has also flagged the possibility that a minimum wage

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Why UQ VC Peter Høj must be sacked

Drew Pavlou, the University of Queensland (UQ) student facing persecution for standing against the University’s deep China links (see here, here and here), has launched a petition on Change.org to sack UQ’s compromised Vice Chancellor, Peter Høj. In the petition Pavlou explains Høj’s wholly inappropriate ties to the Chinese Communist Party (CCP): We are petitioning

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NBN’s completion will lengthen Australia’s dole queue

CEO Stephen Rue has confirmed that the initial rollout of the national broadband network (NBN) is due for completion by the end of June: NBN Co’s announcement of its third quarter results – exceeding its rollout, revenue and activation targets – with the company reporting that it made 670,000 residential and business premises Ready to

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Four parties launch bids for Virgin Australia

Deloitte’s Vaughan Strawbridge is expected to receive four serious non-binding indicative bids for Virgin Australia on 15 May. Queensland government-owned QIC has ruled out making an indicative bid on 15 May, but it may join a consortium in the second round of the bidding process: …a consortium involving the $170bn Australian Super and the Ben Gray-backed

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China’s wolf warriors devour Australia’s possum pansies

China’s wolf wanker warrior diplomats may be a pack of arseholes. But at least they’ve got a bit of get up and go. By comparison, Australia’s possum pansy diplomats are about as fearsome as a trampled flower bed. At The Guardian today: Australia must work to prevent ties with China slipping into permanent hostility as

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CBA: Household income shock arrives when welfare stops

By Gareth Aird, Head of Australian Economics at CBA: Key Points: The increase in government benefit payments, which excludes JobKeeper, continues to be bigger than the fall in wages and salaries paid, albeit growth in household income has eased over the past few weeks. Fiscal stimulus is plugging the income gap from the big contraction

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ASX bear market rally dead or resting?

The Australian dollar is still bid this morning: Bonds too: XJO has added back some of yesterday’s losses but its symmetrical tringle shows confusion: Which it should be given it is trading at 18x forward with unemployment miles above the 1990 recession: Big Iron is firm: Big Gas tooL Big Gold has life: Big Banks