MB Fund Podcast: Confessions of a non-bank lender

In today’s webinar, hear from MB Fund’s Head of Investment Damien Klassen and Tim Fuller as they investigate “Revelations from the coal face of Australian Lending with Stephen Mitchell.” Stephen’s the CEO of private capital lender Oak Capital, and second-tier mortgage broker Resicom. With the Australian property market in major flux, we take an on-the-ground

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The next houses shortage will not boost rents or prices

Instead, it will lower living standards. With dwelling construction crashing, and population growth remaining turbo-charged on the back of never-ending mass immigration, pundits are now tipping that Australia’s housing market will soon shift back into chronic shortage: “CBA estimates suggest an undersupply of apartments from 2020,” CBA economist Kristina Clifton said… Ms Clifton said an


Labor betrays workers to support wage-crushing Indonesian FTA

Labor’s caucus will shortly decide whether to support the federal government’s proposed free trade agreements (FTA) with Indonesia, Hong Kong and Peru. Sources have indicated that Labor is unlikely to oppose the legislation. Meanwhile, the ACTU is lobbying Labor MPs to oppose the bill, due to concerns about issues such as allowing thousands of Indonesians


Australian unemployment eases

The ABS is out with September Labour Force and the news is decent: SEPTEMBER KEY POINTS TREND ESTIMATES Employment increased by 20,200 to 12,942,800 people. Full-time employment increased by 9,000 to 8,840,200 people and part-time employment increased by 11,300 to 4,102,600 people. Unemployment increased by 1,600 to 718,000 people. Unemployment rate remained steady at 5.3%.


VIC Government chases ‘dodgy’ builders for flammable cladding costs

In July, the Victorian Government launched a $600 million funding package to remove dangerous flammable cladding, the cost of which is to be split 50/50 by taxpayers and a new developer building levy. Now, the Victorian Government has announced new laws to chase ‘dodgy’ builders for the costs of rectification. From The AFR: On Tuesday


UBS: BOQ cuts divvy again

Welcome to the future of Aussie banks, via UBS on UQ: ONE LINER NPAT miss on higher Bad Debts. Dividend cut for the second consecutive half. KEY NUMBERS (FY19) FY19: (1) Cash NPAT down 14% to $320m (Cons. $330m); (2) Cash basic EPS down 16% to 80cps (Cons. 81cps); (3) Final 2H dividend 31cps (Cons.


Paedocoin exposed

Via Washington Post: U.S. and international law enforcement authorities have shut down one of the world’s largest child pornography websites following a raid and the arrest of Jong Woo Son, the underground site’s alleged South Korean-based administrator, federal officials said Wednesday. Federal prosecutors with the U.S. attorney’s office in Washington, D.C., and IRS and Homeland


BofAML: Bearish fundies point market higher

Via BofAML: Tweeting the October Global FMS #bottomline: Oct FMS shows investor sentiment bearish despite credit & equity rally; if trade war and BREXIT fears unrealized in Q4 then macro can beat expectations validating our contrarian bullish view. #up-in-cash: FMS cash levels up to 5.0% from 4.7%, leaving BofAML Bull & Bear Indicator at an


SEEK: Bedpan jobs boom rolls on

Via SEEK: “We are seeing a slight improvement in the market with the rate of job ad decline moderating, with September at -7.4% compared to August, which was -8.6%. Month to month we continue to see growth come from the large employing sectors of Community Services and Development which has seen a jump from 13%


RBA outlines “sizeable” construction crash

Yeh, they’re onto it at last. Deputy Governor Guy Debelle today: The housing market has a pervasive impact on the Australian economy. It is the popular topic of any number of conversations around barbeques and dinner tables. It generates reams of newspaper stories and reality TV shows. You could be forgiven for thinking that the


Bullied student seeks restraining order against Angry China diplomat

Via Domain and drawn from the OMG files: A University of Queensland student has sought a court order similar to a restraining order against the Chinese Consul-General in Brisbane, Dr Xu Jie, who he claims has endangered him by describing him as an anti-Chinese separatist in a statement published on the Consul-General’s website. Drew Pavlou,


Desperate developers puke cash for unwanted apartments

As stalled developments mushroom across Australia’s east coast following a surge in completions: The AFR reports that desperate developers are offering up to $20,000 in cash to clear the backlog of high-rise apartments and house-and-land packages: Cash payments of $20,000 are being offered to buyers of high-rise apartments around Melbourne’s central business district amid concerns


He ain’t called Recessionberg for nuthin’

L-plate Treasurer Josh Recessionberg continues down his self-destructive path today. Via the AFR: In an interview with The Australian Financial Review before flying to an International Monetary Fund meeting in Washington DC, Treasurer Josh Frydenberg said restoring the budget to surplus was not a vanity exercise but integral to the government’s plan to buttress the


Daily iron ore price update (the thumpening)

Texture from Reuters: Benchmark Dalian iron ore futures slumped in morning trade on Wednesday, extending losses into a third session, after China’s top steelmaking city of Tangshan issued a second-level smog alert that requires mills to further limit operations. …The losses widened further after China outlined its annual anti-pollution plan for winter in a document


Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  Wall Street pulled back slightly overnight with a mixed Europe also weighing on positive sentiment as retail data disappointed and UK CPI came in lower than expected. Lack of news on a looming Brexit deal kept the continental currencies elevated slightly, while the US retail sales print saw USD flop, spiking Aussie


Indian international students ditch Australia for UK

In recent years, India has been the marginal driver of Australia’s international student enrolments, taking over the growth mantle from China. Over the past two financial years, Indian international student enrolments surged by 39,600 (62%), easily eclipsing the 34,100 (20%) growth in Chinese international students over the same period: It is a similar situation with


Chinese visa arrivals surge to record high

The Australian Bureau of Statistics on Tuesday released its overseas short-term arrivals and departures figures for August. The number of short-term visitor arrivals rose by 6.4% in the year to August, whereas short-term resident departures only rose by 0.7%. The ratio of annual arrivals to departures also rose to 81.5%: That said, net short-term arrivals


Links 17 October 2019

Global Macro / Markets / Investing: Bank of England boss says global finance is funding 4C temperature rise – The Guardian Goldman Profit Drops 26% as Deals Slow, Tech-Stocks Struggle – WSJ The IMF Is Utterly Indifferent to the Pain It’s Causing – Truth Dig IMF-global growth slowing to rate not seen since financial crisis


Macro Afternoon

A generally positive day across Asian risk markets excepting mainland China, following the good mood on Wall Street overnight. The Australian dollar continued to tank following yesterday’s release of the RBA minutes while the NZD was relatively stable despite an uptick in monthly CPI.  Yen strengthened slightly after a big breakout in USD strength overnight


GetUp versus Advance destroys Australian politics

Tribalism is the bane of Australian progress. It is the default position for a populist Australian psychology that is always far more ready to adopt partisanship over national interest or even ideology. To wit, at The Guardian: While national politics frets about its trust crisis, the bulk of Australian voters appear reasonably sanguine with both


Building more dams won’t make it rain. Nor will bringing in millions

The Australia Institute’s Maryanne Slattery has hit out at the new found push to build dams across regional Australia to alleviate drought, arguing that it would be both costly and pointless given there will not be enough rain to fill them due to climate change: …if new dams can solve Australia’s water problems, why didn’t


Jobspocalypse as 5.5 people compete for each entry-level role

Anglicare has released a report which shows that there are 5.5 people competing for every entry-level job position. From The Guardian: Australia’s most disadvantaged jobseekers are forced to compete against growing numbers of underemployed people for a dwindling number of suitable jobs, a report has found… Anglicare’s Annual Jobs Availability Snapshot, released on Wednesday, found


CS: RBA has lost it

Via the excellent Damien Boey at Credit Suisse: Minutes from the RBA’s early October meeting were dovish. The Bank highlighted: Its easing bias. That rising house prices are not a constraint on policy easing right now. The low(er) exchange rate as an especially important channel for rate cuts to be transmitted to the broader economy.