2

Macro Morning

Stock markets stalled throughout the risk complex on Friday as the US election finally came to somewhat of a conclusion with Trump losing, while the better than expected and highly anticipated non-farm payrolls (aka US unemployment print) wasn’t able to push equities higher. Bond yields rose again while the USD continued its retreat alongside commodity

Latest posts

26

Newspoll has Labor in striking distance

If Morrison is riding so high on his virus response then why this? An exclusive Newspoll conducted for The Australian shows the Coalition maintaining its election-winning lead despite a narrowing of the two-party-preferred vote to 51-49 per cent. If it were not for Labor’s China problem, I’d be tempted to install them as favourites for

36

Labor leads post-Trump charge of the China apologists

CCP mouthpiece, China Daily, ramped the rhetoric late Friday: Although Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison has declared that his government’s approach to foreign policy is defined by “strategic patience and consistency”, particularly regarding China, his government’s rash participation in the US administration’s attempts to contain China belies that. It is Canberra that has undermined what

4

Deflation drives Australian dollar last hurrah

DXY sank again Friday night: The Australian dollar consolidated its surge: EM forex jumped: Gold held its gains: Oil sank: Metals were mixed: Miners boomed: EM stocks to the moon: Junk eased: Yields lifted: Stocks marked time: US jobs were reasonable: Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 638,000 in October, and the unemployment rate declined

1

Sydney dominates nation’s auction market

CoreLogic’s preliminary auction clearance rate softened this weekend, with 73.2% of reported auctions cleared versus 77.0% last weekend: Sydney’s preliminary clearance rate remained strong with 78.6% of reported auctions cleared versus 79.6% last weekend. Melbourne’s preliminary auction clearance rate softened to 71.8% versus 75.8% last weekend. According to CoreLogic: There were 1,758 homes taken to

22

Links 9 November 2020

Global Macro / Markets / Investing: A healthy economy should be designed to thrive, not grow. – TED How Much Of The Stock Market’s Rise Over The Last 11 Years is Due to QE? Here’s an Estimate – Market Watch The Link Between the Stock Market and the Economy Is Weakening – Bloomberg Stock Market

495

Sunday Supplement: 8 November 2020

‘A Billabong in the Goulburn Valley, Victoria, Australia’ 1878, H.J. Johnstone, Art Gallery of South Australia   Macro & Markets Bond markets should brace for tighter central bank squeeze – Reuters Record low rates are here to stay regardless who sits in the Oval Office. Will that keep markets pumping in the age of Covid-19?

412

Weekend Reading: 7-8 November 2020

Global Macro / Markets / Investing: The Oil Price War Won’t Dethrone The Dollar – Oil Price Climate change will hit economy harder than COVID-19 lockdowns – Money Mag Modern, Pre-Modern, Or Post-Modern Money? A Brief Guide For The Perplexed – Forbes The MMT Myth – Project Syndicate Americas: San Francisco voters approve taxes on

237

Macro Afternoon

Its a day of retracement as expected across risk markets here in Asia following big surges across stocks, commodities and non-USD currencies after the US election. Traders are now gearing up for tonights US unemployment print that will likely come down at the same time Trump loses the election in  Pennsylvania. Gold has slipped after

20

MB Fund Podcast: The future of manufacturing and energy in Australia, with David Morgan

In today’s investment webinar MB Fund’s Head of Investments Damien Klassen, Head of Advice Tim Fuller and Principal of Iron Matrix, David Morgan discuss the future of manufacturing and energy in Australia. On the agenda today: Manufacturing revival in Australia (and other western countries), if the declining costs of renewable energy will be enough to

1

Weekly COVID-19 (Coronavirus) statistics and analysis flipbook

See our Coronavirus data Dashboard for individual country data. COVID-19 statistics and cases around the World Hospitalisations Note: Hospitalisations data for Europe is only updated weekly. These numbers are up until Sunday Nov 1st.       More COVID-19 Statistics and Analysis See our latest blog posts or podcasts here. See our Coronavirus data Dashboard

39

NBN should fear 5G competitive threat

Last week, NBN Co chief financial officer, Philip Knox, flippantly brushed off the emerging competitive threat from 5G wireless broadband on the NBN’s viability: “We spend virtually zero time thinking about it or talking about it. We’ve always said it’s a complementary technology. It’s highly optimised for mobility and less so for fixed wireless”… Roger

11

Walls close in on Foxtel

There is no doubt that Foxtel has made important strides in securing its long-term future. First, Foxtel has significantly lowered its cost base after axing around 270 permanent jobs at the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic. Second, Foxtel has secured vital exclusive content deals, including beating local rival Stan for Warner Bros, WarnerMedia, HBO and

16

NSW police probe failed VIC hotel quarantine security firm

The security licensing directorate of the NSW Police Force is investigating one of the private security firms that was at the centre of Victoria’s hotel quarantine fiasco. Unified Security is owned by David Millward and Luigi Trunzo, who have been linked to a number of companies that have collapsed. The police investigation could potentially lead

23

First prosecution under foreign influence laws

Via The Guardian: A Chinese-Australian community figure who was pictured with federal minister Alan Tudge donating $30,000 in Covid-19 relief to a Melbourne hospital in June has become the first person charged with a foreign interference offence. Di Sanh Duong, known as Sunny, appeared before the Melbourne magistrates court on Thursday charged with preparing for

9

Chinese-owned resort gifted $500k for quarantining no one

The Victorian Government’s handling of its hotel quarantine program has come under renewed scrutiny. It has been revealed that the Sands Golf Resort in Torquay was paid $511,500 to house returned travellers under two state government contracts. However, the resort was not used as a quarantine hotel, and the Chinese-linked company that owned it subsequently

24

The great bank bust begins

Via Banking Day: The full year results of Australia’s big four banks show the negative effects of a low interest-rate environment on earnings, as the banks bunker down and brace for the full economic impact of the COVID-19 crisis to hit. This is a common thread running between reports from two major professional services firms:

5

NSW records 4 new COVID-19 infections

Australia recorded 9 new cases of COVID-19 overnight and zero deaths: However, only 4 infections were locally acquired with 5 overseas acquired in hotel quarantine: Victoria recorded its 7th straight day without a locally acquired infection, whereas NSW recorded 4 overnight and 10 over the past week: Australia now has only 106 active COVID-19 cases,

2

Roy Morgan unemployment stuck at 12.8% in October

From Roy Morgan Research: Latest Roy Morgan employment series data shows 1.81 million Australians unemployed (12.8% of the workforce). The workforce was up slightly: The workforce in October was 14,158,000 – comprised of 12,348,000 employed and 1,810,000 unemployed Australians looking for work. The workforce total was up slightly by 10,000 since September as gains in

50

Has COVID-19 really spurred a regional property boom?

CoreLogic’s head of research, Eliza Owen, has published the below interesting research questioning the notion that COVID-19 has spured a regional housing boom: There has been a high level of interest as to whether the pandemic has spurred housing demand in regional markets of Australia. Housing market data is partially suggestive of this, especially across

0

Previewing US jobs

Via Calculated Risk: On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for October. The consensus is for 600 thousand jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to decrease to 7.6%. • Decennial Census: The decennial Census will subtract 147,311 temporary jobs. • ADP Report: The ADP employment report showed a gain of 365,000 private sector jobs, well below

29

Get ready for a fixed rate mortgage boom

Fixed-rate loans dominate the UK mortgage market, accounting for around 90% of home loans. By comparison, 70% to 90% of property borrowers in Australia opt for variable interest rates. However, National Australia Bank CEO Ross McEwan believes that the trend toward fixed-rate loans will continue to gather pace and they may soon account for about

35

Is Bitcoin blowing away gold?

Lot’s of excitement over this: As I have noted many times, BTC and gold share an investment narrative insofar as both are seen as hedges against USD debasement. Some have recently been plumping for BTC to overtake gold. Has it? The answer is no and, for what’s it’s worth, I don’t think it will. BTC