A new report by Accenture that was commissioned by Uber claims that that Uber is now Australia’s second-largest employer. The report also claims that a typical Uber Eats delivery worker earned $21.55 an hour after costs in 2020, almost 9% more than the minimum wage. Further, over 80% of its workers say they are happy
For years we have been pounding away at the need for a comprehensive review of the structure of Australian monetary policy. It’s been obvious since the end of the commodity boom in 2011 that it was needed. As the rest of the world embarked on brave experiments in monetary policy – everything from macroprudential tools
Over recent months, we have witnessed the Morrison Government stage a multi-pronged war on workers, designed to subsidise profits by suppressing worker bargaining power and keeping businesses well stocked with abundant cheap labour. Examples of the Coalition’s policy settings include: Refusing to lift JobSeeker to a subsistence level, thereby ‘incentivising’ workers to take precarious, low
The global vaccine rollout is going swimmingly for competent nations. Check out how effective a good vaccine rollout can be in a virus-torn country: That’s with half the population vaccinated but much broader coverage for vulnerable populations. Israel is finished one round and the result is stunning: How did they do it? First, procurement policy
The ferrous complex blasted off on Tuesday 6, April as Chinese steel output restrictions backfire spectacularly in the form of skyrocketing prices. Iron ore spot and paper followed: Ah…those central planners. They never learn. As noted many times previously, when you mess with steel output to try to sink iron ore it nearly always goes
DXY took a hammering last night as US yields fell back from the recent charge higher. We saw all of the usual resulted with EM, commodities and Australian dollar up strongly. I see this as a counter-trend rally. To the charts! DXY vs EUR: The Australian dollar lifted away from the neckline of its perilous
The RBA yesterday gave a quiet warning on house prices when it noted that it said it “will be monitoring trends in housing borrowing carefully and it is important that lending standards are maintained.” It does not take Einstein to see where that ends up eventually. There’ll be a wave of macroprudential tightening to blow
Via AIG: Good news but it will not last out the year as apartments and commercial lag and stimulus removal corrects houses while the Morrison Government underinvests in infrastructure. Full report.
CoreLogic’s March dwelling value results recorded a whopping 3.7% monthly rise in Sydney home values, which was the strongest monthly result since August 1988: As of yesterday (i.e. 6 April 2021), Sydney’s quarterly dwelling value growth was tracking at an insane 7.1%, which is the strongest quarterly growth since October 1988: Thus, the last time
Global Macro / Markets / Investing: Janet Yellen to call for global minimum tax rate in first major address as Treasury secretary – Axios Oil and Gas Jobs Are Disappearing—With or Without Renewables – New Republic U.S. trade chief readies tariffs against six countries over digital taxes – Reuters LG to close mobile phone business
No change to the uber-dovish RBA: At its meeting today, the Board decided to maintain the current policy settings, including the targets of 10 basis points for the cash rate and the yield on the 3-year Australian Government bond, as well as the parameters of the Term Funding Facility and the government bond purchase program. The
Over the last few months, there has been an increase in analysts calling a commodity super-cycle. I disagree. Many commodity prices are at super-cycle levels. It is the volumes that are not in a super-cycle. And high prices without an increase in volumes is a sure recipe for price reversion. Or, in other words, a cycle. Not
As Australia’s relationship with China has shifted to a more realistic footing in the past twelve months, New Zealand has been practising a very studied strategic ambiguity. This reached an ugly head several months ago when Trade Minister Damien O’Connor advised Australia to grovel a lot more. Today we had another example of NZ’s double
For anyone that has been living under a rock with no utility bills for eight years, today’s gas cartel drivel might make some sense: The Morrison Government must not engage in gas market central planning, said pipeline monopolist, APA. We need transparency for prices from consumers, said the oil and gas lobby. Only 3% of
What is it about poor old West Pilbara iron ore that it rings the bell at the top every cycle? Almost without fail, whenever you hear this story revived, sell iron ore with both hands: Australian Premium Iron ore (the West Pilbara Iron Ore Project) aims to be exporting in two years. It will use
#ANZ Australian Job Ads rose a further 7.4% m/m in March to hit its highest level since November 2008. This points to further sharp declines in the unemployment rate this year, aside from a temporary rise expected in Q2, post-JobKeeper. #ausecon @cfbirch @MBansi pic.twitter.com/zT6c92Y1BA — ANZ_Research (@ANZ_Research) April 6, 2021 Plenty of slack yet and
The Mitchell Institute for Education and Health Policy at Victoria University has undertaken analysis for Fairfax, which forecasts that the number of international students studying in Australia will more than halve by January 2022 from pre-pandemic levels: The Mitchell Institute argues that this reduction in student numbers will have a devastating impact on university finances
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) released its Index of Commodity Prices for the month of March, which continued its strong bull run. Over the month of March, commodity prices rose another 1.6% in currency-weighted SDR terms, which followed the 3.1% rise in February. Over the March quarter, the commodity price index surged by 12.5%
Thursday’s lending indicators data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) revealed that loans for new home construction hit the six consecutive monthly record high in February 2021, surging 166% year-on-year: As noted by HIA Chief Economist, Tim Reardon: “The number of construction loans to owner occupiers in the three months to February 2021 is
Morrison Government smut covers Australia in infamy worldwide today as the truth comes out at Bloomberg: Few believe Morrison knew nothing of the smut scandals. Canberra is an inescapable cess-pit where pollies and media are locked in incestuous proximity. Washington is much more decentralised, older, and less parochial. Insular blow-ins breed contempt for the polity.
Over the holiday period, the FT had another confirmation piece of the MB view that China is set to slow, particularly in the most commodity-intensive sector of real estate: PBOC has instructed banks to cut credit availability. Macquarie says concerns about virus-impacted growth are gone and structural reform has resumed. Chinese real estate sales surged
It is the favourite trick of investment banks to set their own forecast so that they can be “surprised” when data misses come about. They all use it to manipulate price action to benefit their trades. A nice example is Goldman in the oil market today. The pre-Easter OPEC was bearish for prices as OPEC
It is amusing to watch bottom-up analysts try to make sense of, and defend, Australia’s buy now, pay later bubble stocks. I know nothing of these stocks. But I can identify a top-down market trend when I see one. APT was never about much more than a monetary bubble produced by COVID-19. Just as was
As regular readers know, I consider the growth rate in new mortgage commitments to be the number one short-term indicator for Australian property prices. This is due to the incredibly strong historical correlation between new mortgage commitments and dwelling value growth. On Thursday, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released data on new mortgage commitments
The ferrous complex rose over Easter with spot, paper and steel all firm: In news, UBS has hit the market with an Easter hammer: “We expect the iron ore supply to lift in the second half of the 2021 financial year and demand to moderate, resulting in iron ore prices falling below $US100 per tonne
As we know, Prime Minister Scott Morrison “doesn’t hold the hose, mate”. Which is just as well. Because he does hold the syringe and that is not going at all well. State premiers are banding together to attack the Morrison Government in the National Cabinet this week. They are demanding accurate rollout data being withheld
Pre-Easter trading had a still strong US dollar as jobs growth accelerated dramatically. Nonetheless, the Australian dollar held at the bottom of its recent trading range around 76 cents. Then last night the US dollar swooned as oil was whacked. To the charts: The Australian dollar held the neckline of its head-and-shoulders top again: Oil
Via the excellent George Theranou at UBS: Mar-21 home prices surge 2.6% m/m, fastest since 1988; sales spike ~43% y/y CoreLogic dwelling prices boomed 2.6% m/m (sa, 2.8% nsa) in Mar-21, the strongest in 33 years since 1988 (after 1.7%); to be up 6.1% y/y (after 3.9%). Prices are a record high level, & up
Global Macro / Markets / Investing: Lumber Prices Are Soaring. Why Are Tree Growers Miserable? – WSJ The untold story of Jackie Robinson of Wall Street, Reginald Lewis – Forbes Majority of economists say benefits of reaching net zero by 2050 outweigh costs, survey finds – Independent Janet Yellen: Climate change poses ‘existential threat’ to
This week our attention turns to global stocks post covid rebuild, as investment professionals the world over mull the opportunities and pitfalls of the various sectors in the market on the search for reliable growth. With traditional defensive stocks not currently behaving defensively, the new challenge lies in optimising global coverage that positions for growth
