COVID-19 survivors face lifetime of disability

The Australian Medical Association’s (AMA) vice-president Chris Moy says there is growing concern that COVID-19 may have long-term effects on internal organs. Heart disease, lung scarring, diabetes and damage to blood vessels are among the potential side-effects of COVID-19 that have been identified. Australia’s acting chief medical officer, Paul Kelly, also stresses that young people

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85% of new high-rise apartment towers defective

60 Minutes last night aired an explosive report on the widespread structural defects afflicting Australia’s high-rise construction towers. Below is the blurb to the report: Here’s an incredible, not to mention shameful, statistic about Australia’s building industry. 85% of new high-rise apartment towers are defective. The rate of shoddy workmanship has increased dramatically as governments


Victoria finally flattens COVID-19 curve

Victoria has recorded another 322 new COVID-19 infections overnight alongside a record 19 deaths (all aged over 50): Other key data includes: 640 people in hospital with COVID-19 47 in ICU, including 31 on ventilators 1,065 healthcare workers currently infected 1,756 currently infected in aged care Infection rates have now clearly passed their peak: Importantly,


Up to 640,000 jobs at risk as stimulus unwound

McKinsey has warned that a second wave of COVID-19 induced job losses could affect between 270,000 and 640,000 Australian workers by March. The consulting firm expects sectors such as retailing and construction to be hardest hit as government support measures are scaled back. McKinsey forecasts that an additional 215,000 jobs could be lost in the


Senator Rex Patrick quits Centre Alliance

Centre Alliance Senator Rex Patrick has quit the party claiming it will fail to win a single seat at the next election. The South Australian senator will run as an independent to ensure the state maintains a “strong and independent” voice in the Senate. Senator Rex Patrick has often been a lone voice of reason


Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  Another US unemployment print in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic passes by with big swings again, with the internal picture still looking woeful, yet Wall Street loved it and pushed to new highs, although tech stocks wobbled. Speaking of wobbliness, precious metals started to tumble in the Asian afternoon session after


Australian property “in deep trouble”

SQM Research managing director, Louis Christopher, has given another bearish assessment of the Australian property market in an interview with Ross Greenwood (below): “It’s already playing out. We are already recording property price falls… The epicentre of this downturn appears to be Sydney and Melbourne… Melbourne’s recording the largest falls… “So far the downturn has


Auction clearances hang on

CoreLogic’s preliminary auction clearance rate remained steady, with 65.9% of reported auctions cleared versus 65.3% last weekend: Melbourne’s preliminary clearance rate bounced to 73.0% from 59.8% last weekend, due to bombing volumes (and fewer withdrawals). By contrast, Sydney’s preliminary clearance rate fell to 65.8% from 68.2% last weekend. As noted by CoreLogic: In Melbourne, 298


Links 10 August 2020

Global Macro / Markets / Investing: Buffett buys back record $5.1 billion in Berkshire stock as coronavirus hits operating earnings – CNBC Stock-market expert sees a ‘monstrous’ rally taking hold next week, if one recent trend holds – Market Watch Robinhood investors are beating the stock market — and here’s the data that proves it


VIC records 394 new COVID-19 infections vs NSW’s 10

Victoria recorded another 394 COVID-19 infections overnight and a record 17 more deaths: However, Victoria’s infection rate appears to have passed its peak: NSW recorded only 10 new cases and, unlike Victoria, has done a good job stopping the spread: Victoria now has 7,854 active COVID-19 cases, 96.2% of the nation’s total. By contrast, NSW


VIC records 466 new COVID-19 infections vs NSW’s 9

Victoria has recorded another 466 COVID-19 infections overnight alongside another 12 deaths: The curve looks to finally be flattening: NSW only recorded 9 new cases and looks to have the situation under control: The contrast with Victoria is stark: Victoria now has 7,808 active COVID-19, 96.2% of the nation’s total. By contrast, NSW only has


A Melbourne nurse with COVID-19 tells his story

My experience as a nurse with covid in Melbourne. From my hotel quarantine.Please share so we can beat this quickly. Posted by Daniel Collins on Wednesday, 5 August 2020 Above is a must watch video from second year nurse at Royal Melbourne Hospital, Daniel Collins, who is in hotel quarantine suffering from COVID-19. Daniel Collins speaks


Weekend Links: 8-9 August 2020

Koki Bay, William Dobell, 1951, Art Gallery of NSW   Macro & Markets Dollar slump lifts U.S. bond returns for foreigners – Reuters Dollar most oversold in 40 years, says Morgan Stanley; exits short position – Reuters This ‘dire’ economic situation ‘deserves to be called a depression — a pandemic depression’ – MarketWatch US, China


Macro Afternoon

by Chris Becker Risk is taking a nosedive going into the afternoon session here in Asia in the wake of Trump’s executive order around another Chinese app, with USD coming back against most of the undollars and stock markets getting very nervous before tonight’s US unemployment print (NFP). Gold has surrounded some ground from its


MB Fund Podcast: Will Technology Driven Deflation be ‘The Price of Tomorrow’? With Jeff Booth

Join us as we discuss Technology’s ever-growing role in the world, the resulting deflation it will generate, and the major structural changes to the economy as we know it caused by this. We discuss these changes in industries it’s already happened in, as well as some likely candidates such as energy and automotive. We wrap


US jobs preview

Via Calculated Risk: On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for July. The consensus is for an increase of 1.58 million non-farm payroll jobs (+1.47 million private sector), and for the unemployment rate to decrease to 10.5%. The usual indicators are somewhat useless again this month due to the


Why Melbourne property prices will plummet

CoreLogic’s head of research, Eliza Owen, has done a good job explaining why Melbourne dwelling values are falling at a much faster pace than the rest of the nation: Melbourne has so far seen the largest cumulative declines in property values since March (3.5%). This was led by a 5.2% decline across the Inner East


Joye: Default tsunami coming in March

Good work from Chris Joye today: One significant concern relates to record unofficial arrears in illiquid and subordinated bonds comprising “securitised” portfolios of Australian home loans, SME loans and consumer loans that are packaged up and sold to investors through residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) and asset-backed securities (ABS). We are particularly anxious about RMBS and


Auction market continues fade out

CoreLogic has released its final auction results for the week, with the clearance rate continuing to trend lower after bouncing following the first lockdown:   According to CoreLogic: Last week saw the final weighted average clearance rate improve across a lower volume of auctions and fewer withdrawn auctions. There were 1,154 capital city homes scheduled


VIC records another 450 COVID-19 infections vs NSW’s 11

Victoria has recorded another 450 COVID-19 infections alongside another 11 deaths: NSW, by contrast, recorded only 11 new infections and continues to do a far better job containing the outbreak: Victoria has 7,637 active COVID-19 infections, 96.1% of the nation’s total. By contrast, NSW has 274 active cases, 3.5% of the nation’s total: Victoria has


More gold bullishness

Via Bloomie: With no imminent end to collapsing real yields – which just hit a new record low -1.10%, the side effects of financial repression warn of stagflation, asset bubbles and policy impotence. Fresh lows for U.S. 10-year real yields this week show a trap door opened by growing economic angst, climbing inflation expectations and


Australia’s bedpan economy revealed

One of the biggest changes witnessed across the Australian labour market has been the strong growth of jobs in the Healthcare & Social Assistance sector, which expanded by a whopping 640,000 jobs since the Global Financial Crisis: Increasing its share of Australian jobs from around 10% to more than 14%: Seek has released a new