Global Macro / Markets / Investing: Bear Stearns Staves Off Collapse of 2 Hedge Funds – NY Times Why Do Democracies Fail? – The Atlantic The End of Car Ownership – WSJ Robots Are Eating Money Managers’ Lunch – Bloomberg A study has demolished the biggest myth about quotas – The Independent Forget Trump-Generated Volatility. The World Is Awash in
Exclusively from Professor Steve Keen: How to delay a recession Much was made of the fact that Australia recently replaced The Netherlands as the world record holder for the longest period without a recession (using the colloquial definition of two consecutive quarters of negative growth). The Netherlands went just under 26 years (103 quarters between
by Chris Becker This time only mainland Chinese stocks are enjoying the feel of green, led by rebalancing in the MSCI Index as a sea of red screens swamped the rest of Asia, led by a big selloff in Australian stocks. Yen is gaining as the safe haven once more alongside a small blip higher
Via the AFR: The UBS analysis comes just ahead of the introduction of the government’s controversial “domestic gas security mechanism”, which could cap LNG exports if it is triggered. But ironically the design of the mechanism means it would affect only Santos’s GLNG venture, rather than the two Queensland LNG projects that have extra gas
By Leith van Onselen WA Premier, Mark McGowan, has signaled that unlike his federal Labor counterpart, Bill Shorten, he actually cares about his workers. With WA unemployment and underemployment sky high: McGowan in March wrote to Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull to remove Perth from the Regional Sponsorship Migration Scheme, thus effectively preventing a pathway for
By Leith van Onselen The Housing Industry Association (HIA) has released its latest Housing Outlook, which forecasts a steady decline in dwelling starts over the next three years, with renovation activity also forecast to peak before falling: “The housing boom was not consistent across Australia and now with NSW and Victoria cooling, all indicators are
By Leith van Onselen After months of promising to slash New Zealand’s immigration intake by the “tens-of-thousands”, the opposition Labour Party appears to have backslid somewhat, promising to leave the excessively high permanent migrant intake untouched. From Interest.co.nz: Labour leader Andrew Little says he is confident the party’s new regional visa policy will ensure migrants
Dalian has opened flat: Big Iron has broken with FMG right at new intraday lows, BHP crashed through them, and even coconut vendor RIO under pressure: Big Gas is now burning out of control with STO pointing straight towards new 40 year lows: Big Gold is chopping wood in its correction: Big Bubble is bursting
Via Westpac: • The six month annualised growth rate in the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Index, which indicates the likely pace of economic activity relative to trend three to nine months into the future, eased from 1.01% in April to 0.62% in May. The index is pointing to a clear slowing in momentum. While the growth
From Macquarie: Fed still gold’s key risk and opportunity The Fed remains the key risk and opportunity for gold. Raising rates despite low inflation, and promising far more hikes to come, seems bearish gold and in the short-term it is. But ultimately we believe the Fed will realise it can’t deliver –so rates will
By Leith van Onselen Business Council of Australia president and chief engineer of Australia’s LNG calamity, Grant King, has been quick to douse RBA Governor Phil Lowe’s call for workers to demand pay rises. From The AFR: Business would love to pay workers more but can only do so if productivity and profits improve, says Business
From UBS: If you agree that growth follows the credit impulse then Straya ain’t looking up…
By Leith van Onselen Earlier this month it was the Grattan Institute that urged Australia’s politicians to back the Coalition’s Gonski 2.0 needs-based school funding package, with Grattan contending that the lion’s share of the extra $22 billion that Labor promised to spend at the 2016 election would represent wasteful investment that would not deliver
By Chris Becker The USD and Treasuries rose in lockstep as US stocks retreated due to the retreating oil price overnight as tech stocks took a tumble following their too-fast rise in the previous session. Without much economic news to go on, risk markets are reacting to political and other macro events. A speech
The Aussie dollar fell against both USD and EUR last night: But was strong against EMs: Gold fell: Oil was hammered to new lows: Base metals rolled: Big miners were smashed (-3%+ each for RIO/BHP ADRs): EM stocks broke: EM high yield is looking toppy now: US bonds were bought and the curve flattened again: European
By Leith van Onselen The NSW Government’s fake concern over the dire state of Sydney housing affordability continued yesterday with the release of the State Budget, which included more token measures to boost supply. From Australian Broker: The NSW Government has announced it will spend more than $720m over the next four years to address
By Leith van Onselen The ABS yesterday released its property price data for the March quarter, which valued Australia’s dwelling stock owned by households at a record $6.27 trillion dollars. As shown below, the total value of Australia’s dwelling stock was an all-time high 7.7 times employee incomes as at March 2017, up massively from
By Leith van Onselen The NSW Budget for 2017-18 has been released, and as expected, it revealed a big Budget surplus of $4.5 billion in 2016-17, thanks to the booming property market, with smaller surpluses expected over the forward estimates: The 2016-17 budget result is expected to be $4.5 billion, $0.8 billion higher than in
By Leith van Onselen SQM Research has released its rental vacancy series for May, which revealed a 0.2% fall in the national vacancy rate over the month as well as a 0.2% fall over the year: As shown above, rental vacancies fell across almost all capitals in May. Over the year, decreases in vacancies were
This is turning into a smash: Effective on 30 June 2017, Westpac will reduce its variable rate interest rates for customers paying principal and interest on their owner occupier home loans by 8 basis points to 5.24% per annum (comparison rate 5.38% per annum*). Westpac will also adjust interest only rates for variable home loans
Maybe it will have to be revolution: The Turnbull government has put its bill to prevent worker exploitation on the backburner, delaying a vote until at least August – a full two years after the 7-Eleven wage scandal was exposed. The move comes amid an extensive behind-the-scenes lobbying campaign by the Franchise Council of Australia, led
From The Herald Sun: A BOLD vision to transform Melbourne’s west with a $30 billion “super city” is nearing reality with the State Government to decide on the project within months. A high-level consortium has been solidly negotiating with government officials over the past year after the plan was first mooted in 2015. The Herald
The Naked CEO’s tentacles may spread far but so far as the AFR: Remember our Tuesday revelation that Professions Australia, which “welcomed” CPA’s “fiercely independent” review led by quondam Malley admirers, also has Malley’s direct report Adam Awty on its board? Well, it gets better. Guess who was Professions Australia chairman until May 2015? Alex
Via The Australian: The Turnbull government is preparing to back the construction of new coal power stations to prevent a dangerous shortfall in electricity supplies, using “reverse auctions” to replace ageing coal-fired generators with new technology already embraced in Japan and China. The new agenda promises to scale back the need for a controversial clean
