pic.twitter.com/csX07ZVWGe — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) January 8, 2021 President Donald Trump posted his latest video to Twitter, his first Tweet since his expired suspension for inciting violence. In the address, Trump says he is committed to a smooth and orderly transition: “Now Congress has certified the results. A new administration will be inaugurated on
Primary Section
Latest posts
A mortgage lending showdown is brewing
In September MB was left flabbergasted when Treasurer Josh Frydenberg, out of nowhere, announced the government would abolish responsible lending rules. This was a watershed moment in Australia’s transformation into the property equivalent of a narco state given this decision to abolish responsible lending laws directly contravened the very first recommendation from the Hayne Banking
China is shrinking, and is about to shrink more
I have noted previously how China’s economy is facing stiff headwinds from an ageing population (see here, here, here, and here). Essentially, China’s ageing problem stems from its ‘one child policy’, which was brought into effect in the early-1970s and is credited with preventing around 400 million births from 1979 to 2010. This policy initially
ACCI demands Australia open border to migrants
While the nation grapples with multiple COVID outbreaks imported via returning Australians, the biggest business collective – the Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry (ACCI) – has demanded the federal government open Australia’s international border to ‘skilled’ migrants to alleviate so-called skills shortages: Melbourne-based Raghubir Singh is an experienced motor mechanic who had planned to
Mutant UK COVID strain sends Brisbane into lockdown
Genomic sequencing has revealed that the part-time cleaner in her 20s at one of Brisbane’s quarantine hotels that tested positive for the highly infections mutant UK strain of COVID-19. The person lives in Algester in Brisbane’s South and visited a number of public places since 2 January while infectious, including a Woolworths, a Coles, and
Macro Morning
Stimulus and vaccine hopes are overriding concerns of more market regulation from a Democrat-controlled Congress, as Wall Street surged to big new record highs overnight, overshadowing the political turmoil seen in the Capitol yesterday. Oil prices continued to lift while Bitcoin remains unstoppable, lifting to a new record high after briefly breaching the $40,000 level,
Daily iron ore price update (scrap ban lifts)
The iron ore complex surged on Thursday, bringing prices to new highs as demand for iron ore remains high in the Middle Kingdom: Spot prices exceeding $170USD per ton while coking coal and rebar advanced nearly 2%. The lifting of a two year ban on imported scrap steel into China last week are considered “symbolic
House construction booms, apartment construction busts
Yesterday’s dwelling approvals data for November, released by the ABS, revealed that detached house approvals hit a fresh 20-year high: At the same time, however, unit & apartment approvals have retraced to around 2010 levels: Today, I want to focus on the high-rise apartment segment, which has driven the apartment bust. The next chart shows
CoreLogic weekly house price update: Moderation
In the week ended 7 January 2021, the CoreLogic 5-city daily dwelling price index, which covers the five major capital city markets, rose another 0.04%: It was the 11th straight monthly rise. All major markets except Melbourne recorded value rises: Quarterly values continue to rebound with rises recorded across all major capitals: However, annual price
Links 8 January 2021
Global Macro / Markets / Investing: Dow Rises 600 Points and Sets Record as Democrats Lead Georgia Elections – The Street Stocks fall, bond yield rise as investors brace for possible Democrat triumph in Georgia – Sun Daily World Economy Faces Debt Doom Loop, More Inequity Post Pandemic – Bloomberg Fed’s Mester says policy will
Macro Afternoon
A strange day for geo-politics as the US goes bananas – literally – which hasn’t upset risk markets as the certainty around a Biden administration becomes pretty clear. Bitcoin continues to surge, now above the “insert crazy level here” while gold is trying to recover from its overnight breakdown, up slightly but looking weak here
Bitcoin bubbles as Australian dollar floats along
Markets are plain ignoring the political chaos in the US, with the local stock market up nearly 2% and S&P futures up 0.6% as Congress re-convenes.Bitcoin continues its unsustainable but wondrous to behold move higher, hitting the $37000 level overnight and slightly below that level going into the afternoon session. Note the crypto currency has
Aussie telcos declare war on Netflix
Two and a half years ago, NBN Co chief Bill Morrow blamed online gaming for creating massive congestion on the National Broadband Network (NBN) network. Accordingly, NBN Co was “evaluating” throttling downloads for users during peak periods in order to relieve fixed wireless congestion. Then early last year, the blame for NBN congestion was shifted
Sydney and Melbourne property listings surge
Property listings rose strongly in Sydney and Melbourne in December when compared to December 2019, according to new figures from SQM Research: Listings in Melbourne were up over 30.5% year-on-year while Sydney listings rose 13.8%. However, year-on-year listings across the rest of the nation were all down. Newer listings, in particular, have increased across Sydney
QLD records local COVID case amid another quarantine breach
Australia recorded only one new locally acquired COVID-19 infection overnight – a casual cleaner working in a Queensland quarantine hotel: There are now 225 active locally acquired cases recorded across Australia: NSW still leads the way with 196 active local cases: However, its rate of infection has fallen below the second wave, where NSW suppressed
HomeBuilder drives big rise in dwelling approvals
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has released dwelling approvals data for the month of November. At the national level, the number of dwelling approvals rose by a seasonally adjusted 2.6% to 17,205. The overall rise in approvals was driven by house approvals, which surged by 6.1% whereas the volatile units & apartments segment fell
ANZ: Spending holding up despite virus outbreaks
The virus outbreaks across NSW and Victoria have failed to dampen spending according to new data from ANZ. Total spending by ANZ cardholders increased by 6% in December over November, with spending by Victorian cardholders up almost 5% and spending in New South Wales up 2%. Spending by South Australian cardholders rose by 16%, while
Jacinda Ardern hoisted on her own housing petard
New Zealand Prime Minister, Jacinda Ardern, was elected in 2017 on a platform of fixing New Zealand’s chronic housing crisis. However, Ardern’s Labour Party failed dismally on housing in its first term, failing to deliver on key election promises. Labour’s promised ‘KiwiBuild’ program to build 100,000 public houses descended into a farce, with the government
New car sales bounce back
The Federal Chamber of Automotive Industies (FCAI) has released new car sales for December, which revealed that sales continued to rebound: According to FCAI: December 2020 recorded 95,652 sales, a 13.5 per cent increase over the same period in December 2019 when 84,239 were sold. This result follows a similar upturn in November 2020, when
Macro Morning
Wall Street continued to surge overnight despite the chaos on Capitol Hill with only the NASDAQ pulling back with European stocks outperforming. Oil prices continued to lift on the Saudi cuts while Bitcoin remains unstoppable, lifting to a new record high to be above $36000 mark at one stage as the daily chart moves further
Who said COVID would be the death of cash?
One would have thought the COVID-19 pandemic and the associated restriction on cash payments would have caused the number and value of banknotes in circulation to fall. Not so according to the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), which this week advised that the total value of banknotes in circulation rose by $1.6 billion in December,
US on brink of civil war as Trump supporters storm capitol
There’s been crazy scenes overnight and this morning in the US, where thousands of unmasked pro-Trump supporters have stormed Capitol Hill demanding Trump remain US President: The SWAT teams and the National Guard have been called in to disperse the protesters and a curfew has been called. Here’s a summary of the day’s events via
Daily iron ore price update (seaborne volumes drop)
Iron ore prices continued to surge yesterday, despite some hesitation on futures markets as concerns over current iron ore supply weighed on the complex. Here are the latest prices, with rebar and coking coal dropping slightly: Seaborne volumes are in a slight decline: After a two-week rise, iron ore volumes dispatched from 19 ports and
Could Australian mortgage rates fall to zero?
We had previously operated under the wrong assumption that the 30-year decline in mortgage rates had run its course given the RBA official cash rate (OCR) had little further room to fall: That is, with the OCR hitting its lower bound, we wrongly believed that banks would have minimal ability to cut deposit and wholesale
RBA Charts the Aussie economy
It’s that time of month, even though the boffins and gearlever holders are on holidays for January they still managed to put out a glorious make benefit for MacroBusiness readers Chart Pack. First, its the measure that all economists love and politicians are slavishly devoted to – GDP: COVID-19 really put the guts into GDP
Links 7 January 2021
Global Macro / Markets / Investing: Oil breaks above $50 for the first time since February – CNBC The Inflation Doomsayers Are Wrong Again – Bloomberg The land of cheap mortgages just went to zero – Fortune Picking Stocks for 2021: Genomics, Electric Vehicles, Bitcoin – Bloomberg 2020 was the year (almost) none of us
Macro Afternoon
Another mixed day of trading in Asia with most stock markets declining or putting in minor scratch sessions as Wall Street futures pulled back in the wake of a probable Democrat victory in the special Georgian elections that will decide the fate of the Senate. Bitcoin continues to surge, now above the $35000 level while
Australian and Kiwi dollar in battle of the antipodes
Not much happening in currency land today as risk markets (aka the bots) remain closely tied to the outcome of the Georgia special elections in the US that will decide the fate of the Senate, and hence President-elect Biden’s legislative agenda. In crypto world, Bitcoin is hovering just above the $34000USD level having gotten ahead
China shoots itself in foot with Aussie export ban
Karma continues to bite China in the backside, with more reports of blackouts across the country after its decision to ban Aussie coal: Several major Chinese cities have reportedly gone dark as authorities limit power usage, citing a shortage of coal. Analysts said prices of the commodity in the country have shot up due to
Foxtel takes Aussie taxpayers to cleaners
Back in July, Foxtel received $10 million from Australian taxpayers to broadcast “women’s, niche and other under-represented sports”. This subsidy followed the $30 million received by Foxtel from Australian taxpayers in 2017. The decision to give Foxtel another $10 million was also fast-tracked through Cabinet and broke the usual “10 Day Rule” for assessing proposals.