By Leith van Onselen Our Property Council Prime Minister, Scott Morrison, has recommenced his scare campaign against Labor’s promised negative gearing and capital gains tax reforms, describing them as a “sledgehammer” that would “crash” the housing market. From News.com.au: “The risk is this,” the Prime Minister said. “If you now take the sledgehammer of negative
You tell me, via Domainfax: Capital Economics chief economist Paul Dales explains, the savings rate tends to be affected by movements in household wealth. The chart shows that as wealth rises, we tend to save less – known as the “wealth effect.” “When household wealth is going up because the housing market is improving, the
By Gareth Aird, Senior Economist at CBA Key Points: Australian residential property prices have fallen over the past nine months. Further declines appear likely over the next year due to softer credit growth, a continued lift in apartment supply, less foreign demand and more rational price expectations from would-be buyers. We retain our view, however,
By Leith van Onselen Acadata has released its latest house price results for the UK, which shows that values in London are rebounding after a period of price falls. However, in real inflation-adjusted terms, property values are still declining across the UK: Monthly prices rose modestly in August. They were up just 0.1%, but it
Mr North removes himself from the crucifix.
Via The Australian comes Queensland Energy Minister Anthony Lynham: “We stand ready to work with a federal Labor government on integrated climate and energy policy that will give investors certainty and drive down electricity prices,” he said. …Dr Lynham claimed there was “nothing but chaos and confusion” emerging from the Morrison government on energy policy
Just in case you’re still wondering whether or not Labor is going to win the federal election next May, via the AFR: Murdoch met with Seven West proprietor Kerry Stokes and implied the very opposite. “Malcolm has got to go,” he told the Perth billionaire. Stokes, whose interests extend well beyond media into mining services
Iron ore prices for September 18, 2018: No change. Down into Q4.
By Chris Becker Markets are pretty much side stepping the Chinese/US trade tariff imbroglio, with tech stocks in the US leading the way as safe havens like Treasuries and Yen are sold off. Ten year yields remain above 3% while the USD was mixed against the majors, as Euro and Pound Sterling tread water, while
DXY firmed last night: AUD bounced anyway with risk: Gold is still stuck: Oil was firm: Base metals too: Miners jumped: Em stocks improved: But EM junk sent another warning: Treasuries were bashed: And bunds: Stocks popped: Westpac has the wrap: Economic Wrap US homebuilder sentiment was unchanged in September, the National Association of Homebuilder’s
If it is you wouldn’t know it. Via The Australian: Accounting firm KPMG suggested losses to the Australian economy from the new tariffs would reach about $2bn in the first year, rising to a maximum of about $5bn, or 0.3 per cent of GDP, by the early 2020s as commodity prices and export volumes suffered.
By Leith van Onselen The arrogance of our political elites never ceases to amaze. Amid the revolt against Sydney’s break-neck population growth and declining liveability, NSW Planning Minister Anthony Roberts has arrogantly claimed “overdevelopment does not exist”: At a panel discussion on the city’s future on Friday, Anthony Roberts said he was “done with the term
By Leith van Onselen SQM Research has released its rental vacancy series for August, which revealed a 0.1% fall in the national vacancy rate over the month and a 0.1% decline over the year: Over the year, decreases in vacancies were recorded in Adelaide (-0.3%), Perth (-1.2%), Brisbane (-0.6%) and Canberra (-0.3%), whereas increases were
By Leith van Onselen The ABS yesterday released its property price data for the June quarter, which valued Australia’s dwelling stock owned by households at $6.58 trillion, whereas the total housing stock was valued at a record $6.93 trillion. As shown below, the total value of Australia’s dwelling stock owned by households was 7.58 times
Global Macro / Markets / Investing: Reflections on the Lehman collapse, 10 years later – BIS How US banks took over the financial world – FT Kimbal Musk says his brother Elon is doing ’great’ – CNBC Political Pressure on Central Banks by Carola Binder – SSRN A Lost Generation? Long-Lasting Wealth Impacts of the
Asian stock markets have reacted in a positive fashion to the Trump tariff announcement, fading the news, although locally the ASX200 dropped as the Aussie dollar lept higher on the RBA minutes and the easing of trade tensions (i.e a known known). The Shanghai Composite is in full reverse, currently up 1.4% going into the close
Just sayin’, via the ABC: Launceston retailers are working out ways to bring more people into the city, after some stores experienced their worst trading month in years. Many retailers in Launceston have described August as “challenging”, but said it was hard to pinpoint the exact reasons why. Andrew Pitt, from one of city’s longest-running
Via Zero Hedge: Beijing has been trying to calm its bubbly real estate market with policies that divert investor funds into China’s rental market. But the policy shift to increase the supply of rental housing has backfired, leaving most middle-class Chinese with a rapid increase in living expenses. The reason: the government’s latest centrally planned
By Leith van Onselen CoreLogic has released its Cordell Construction Monthly report, which reveals that Australia’s construction pipeline rose in August. Specifically, the overall construction pipeline was valued at $23.5 billion in August, with apartments the second biggest construction segment behind civil engineering: There was also a big jump in the number of apartment projects
By Leith van Onselen A review of the Australian Business Number (ABN) system has proposed the adoption of fees for ABN registration and renewals as part of efforts to crack down on misuse of ABNs, which have been used to facilitate fraudulent activity. The ABN system has been in place since 2000, with around 7.7
PM Property Council is very adept at lying. His specialty is burying the truth under a deluge of wet cement verbiage. Sadly for him, women of the parliament are onto it, via New Daily: A crucial crossbench MP says she will reconsider her supply agreement with the Coalition unless it immediately resolves complaints of bullying
By Leith van Onselen Moody’s Analytics has released a report forecasting a 1.6% fall in housing prices across Australia in 2018. The firm expects house prices in Sydney to decline by 5.1% in 2018, although some suburbs will record larger declines while others will record growth. House prices in Melbourne are forecast to rise by
After years of energy war from the Coalition that has included: backing emissions trading; trashing emissions trading; backing renewable energy targets; trashing renewable energy targets; backing direct action; trashing direct action; backing the Chief Scientist; trashing the Chief Scientist; backing a National Energy Guarantee; trashing a National Energy Guarantee. Today we get the new vision from
By Leith van Onselen The ABS has released its property price index – incorporating both detached houses and units – which registered another 0.7% decline in home values nationally over the June quarter and a 0.6% decline over the year: Sydney (-0.7%), Melbourne (-1.2%), Perth (-0.1%), and Darwin (-0.9%) recorded quarterly declines in values, whereas
Better work from The Guardian today: Not a single lobbyist has been punished for breaching rules in the past five years – either federally, or in Victoria, Western Australia, Queensland or South Australia. Experts warn that the lack of enforcement leaves the sector to largely police itself, and that even if authorities took action they
Party on RBA: International Economic Conditions Members commenced their discussion of the global economy by noting that GDP growth in most of Australia’s major trading partners had remained above trend. Monetary policy settings had continued to be accommodative in most economies, although a few central banks had become less accommodative as spare capacity was absorbed
Yes, it’s border security Coalition style, via The Australian: Liberal Party heavyweight Scott Briggs — a close friend and political ally of Scott Morrison and a former professional colleague of new Immigration Minister David Coleman — is driving a bid to win a visa-processing contract understood to be valued at up to $1 billion. …According
By Leith van Onselen According to Melbourne Institute professor Mark Wooden, workers have little to complain about: Wages have far outstripped increased living costs over the past decade, rising 31 per cent against a 22 per cent lift in inflation, delivering real gains in living standards. Melbourne Institute professor Mark Wooden said that although consumer prices
Via CoreLogic comes the leading mortgage index, which continues to bounce but remains well below 2014 levels in trend terms: Total listings are the highest since 2012 though well below those levels, led by Sydney and Melbourne: Whereas prices continue to fall, now down 3.5% year-on-year: Full report here
By Leith van Onselen The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) passed the House of Representatives last night, thanks to Labor’s treacherous support. From SBS News: The coalition had the backing of Labor to pass the draft laws through the lower house on Monday, sparking fierce criticism from independent MP Bob Katter and Greens MP Adam Bandt. The
