The ABS yesterday released its property price data for the March quarter, which valued Australia’s dwelling stock owned by households at $7.9 trillion, whereas the total housing stock was valued at $8.3 trillion. As shown below, the ratio of the dwelling stock owned by households against Australian GDP hit a record 4.0 times as at
Global Macro / Markets / Investing: Uneven vaccination rates are creating a new economic divide – The Economist The socio-economic consequences of COVID-19 in the Middle East and North Africa – Bruegel Walton Family, World’s Richest, Raises $2.1 Billion From Walmart Holdings – Yahoo Winners and Losers of the Work-From-Home Revolution – The Atlantic Wall
Asian share markets have diverged with Chinese bourses (except the satellite ASX200) dropping while Japanese stocks are helped along by a much lower Yen as USD continues to strengthen against the major currencies. Gold is struggling after selling off overnight and is barely moving at the $1866USD per ounce level with traders of all sorts
Roy Morgan’s business confidence survey hit a seven year high in May, increasing 4pts (+3.2%) to 129.3 – the highest reading since January 2014 (131.5). This follows a whopping 39.4pts (+43.8%) increase on May 2020 when Australia was gripped by the coronavirus pandemic: Business Confidence in May 2021 was 15.5pts above the long-term average of
A new report from Knight Frank Research shows that the total value of offshore investment in Australian residential property fell below $500 million in 2020 – the lowest level in seven years. This was a key driver of a 19.6% decline in property developers’ investment in residential sites, which fell to just $4 billion amid
Deloitte Access Economics is upbeat about the outlook for Australian retailers, forecasting that consumer spending will remain strong as the domestic economy continues to rebound and COVID-19 restrictions ease. The firm’s quarterly Retail Forecast report notes that lockdowns and travel restrictions have boosted retailers’ sales, which should result in a “bumper year” for the sector
Nataxis with the latest on Bitcoin: Bitcoin: adjustment nearly over? Since mid-May, Bitcoin and crypto assets have been in crisis. After a high at $63,500, Bitcoin collapsed to almost $30,000, Ethereum went from a high of $4,400 to a low of $2,000. The capitalisation of crypto assets has fallen from a high of $2 tr
Earlier this year, the National Farmers Federation (NFF) called for a Dedicated Agriculture Visa program ease purported chronic labour shortages across the sector: To provide a stable and sustainable workforce for agriculture that is fair and equitable for both workers and employers, the NFF supports the introduction of a Dedicated Agriculture Visa program… providing a
Former ALP minister Craig Emerson has penned an article in The AFR calling on the Morrison Government to tackle Australia’s declining productivity growth, which is central to boosting the nation’s living standards: “Productivity growth has contributed 95 per cent of the improvement in Australians’ material living standards since 1901”. “From the turn of the century,
The ABS has released its property price results for the March quarter, which recorded a 5.4% quarterly rise across the combined capital cities – the strongest rise since the December quarter of 2009: According to the ABS: Residential property prices rose 5.4 per cent in the March quarter 2021. This was the strongest quarterly growth
Via the RBA Minutes: Considerations for monetary policy In considering the policy decision, members observed that the global economic recovery from the pandemic had continued and the outlook was for strong growth in output in 2021 and the following year. Policy settings and the pace of COVID-19 vaccinations had supported global economic activity, but the recovery remained
As we know, the NSW Government has announced plans to replace stamp duty with an annual land tax by. On Friday it released a report detailing the reforms. Under the reforms, buyers would be given an alternative to paying stamp duty via: Owner-occupiers: a fixed $400 up-front fee plus an annual 0.3% tax on the
The commodities bubble has begun to burst. Lumber is crashing, copper is fading and foodstuffs like corn and soy are copping it. China’s credit impulse has sunk lower than a snake’s butthole indicating base metals and bulks are next. Oil is OK but so what? It’s manipulated. Yet, check out the latest Wall Street strategist
Westpac with the note: The ABS Weekly Payrolls estimate of jobs lifted 0.3% in the two weeks to 22nd May and the fortnightly increase of the previous release (for the two weeks ending May 8) was revised from -0.3% to -0.1%. It is normal for Payrolls to be revised upwards in the weeks following the initial
The rise in Sydney’s dwelling values has been extraordinary. Since the beginning of 2021, Sydney dwelling values have risen by an astonishing 13.9%, marking the fastest pace of increase since the late 1980s. According to CoreLogic, the ‘high end’ of Sydney’s property market – i.e. the top 25% of properties – have driven the value
Over the weekend, The AFR reported that the Morrison Government will use the Australian Treasury’s upcoming intergenerational report (IGR) as ammunition to reboot the mass immigration ‘Big Australia’ policy (see yesterday’s post). The IGR will reportedly “show the country is getting older, more indebted and reliant on taxing younger workers, and driving up spending”. Therefore,
The ferrous complex was mostly closed over the long weekend with much of Asai shut too for the Dragon Boat holiday. Spot iron ore rose and everything else was on pause: News over the break was very bad for demand as Chinese credit cratered but it was better on the supply side with Vale facing
The first session of the trading week was a modest one overnight and while tech stocks on the NASDAQ bloomed ever higher, most other equity markets stalled out as bond yields rose across the board. Currency markets were equally sanguine without much intrasession volatiltiy although Yen sold off appreciably against USD while commodity prices saw
Chinese credit tightening has turned into a crash. Paradoxically, it’s a controlled descent but the pace of it is akin to a crisis. Total social financing in May came in at 1.92tr yuan with bank lending making 1.47tr of that: The non-bank share is still falling away after its brief COVID flourish: May loan flow
Australia’s personality-disordered PM, Scott Morrison, is galavanting around the world drumming up support to contain China. He’s invited himself to the G7 to lace it with anti-CCP warnings. He’s dropped into Downing Street to spray Beijing. He’s soon off to the White House for an anti-CCP powwow. At home, more US marines and naval access
According to Bloomie, hedge funds are long the Australian dollar: Leveraged funds hold a net long position of 20,509 contracts in the currency. Various hedgies talked their own book for higher on the forthcoming speech by Phil Lowe and the next jobs report. Actually, the overall market is now short the AUD by 9k contracts
Global Macro / Markets / Investing: The Profit Paradox’ Details How Lack Of Competition Warps Economies – Benzinga Will poorer countries benefit from international tax reform? – The Economist BlackRock isn’t to blame for the dumpster fire housing market – VOX Fed balance sheet tops $8 trillion for first time -data – Reuters US Treasuries
With the US inflation report out of the way, Friday night saw the go signs flash green on stock markets while the USD pounced back on no major news against the major currencies, although the latest US Michigan consumer sentiment survey surprised to the upside. Bond yields saw new lows with 10 year Treasuries again
CoreLogic’s preliminary report on the weekend’s auctions reported a higher clearance rate as Melbourne reopened. The national preliminary clearance rate rose to 77.4% from 73.5% the prior weekend. However, this was off significantly lower auction volumes, down to 1,426 from the prior weekend’s 2,691, owing to the Queens’s Birthday long weekend. Sydney continued its strong
The Weekend AFR gave its strongest indication yet that the Morrison Government will use Treasury’s upcoming Intergenerational Report (IGR) as ammunition to reopen the mass immigration floodgates: This month’s Intergenerational Report will be “used to reinforce the government’s case to boost immigration once the pandemic ends”. “It will show the country is getting older, more
Global Macro / Markets / Investing: Standard Inflation Theory Leaves Out Social Conflict and Costs – Ineteconomics Will poorer countries benefit from international tax reform? – The Economist BlackRock isn’t to blame for the dumpster fire housing market – VOX Fed balance sheet tops $8 trillion for first time -data – Reuters Global food prices
Global Macro / Markets / Investing: Global food prices rise to highest level in a decade – Yahoo In a world first, El Salvador makes bitcoin legal tender – Reuters Inflation Is Surging. The Price Of A Toyota Pickup Truck Helps Explain Why – NPR The coming productivity boom – Bruegel Banks to Companies: No
A fairly mixed end to the trading week here in Asia following last night’s US inflation print and the latest ECB meeting which embiggened US stocks to new highs but hasn’t quite translated into firm moves across other stock markets so far. The USD is losing ground against all of the majors, but particularly Euro
Despite the cut in international students, salaries of university vice-chancellors remain bloated, according to new analysis by Fairfax: Unbelievably, some vice chancellors scored pay rises in 2020 at the same time as revenues tanked, rank and file staff were retrenched or had their wages stolen, and students were pushed into sub-standard online teaching. As shown
You have got to love the contradictory statements coming from the Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry (ACCI), which continues to talk with a forked tongue on the labour market. The ACCI recently sent a submission to the Morrison Government’s migration program review whereby it demanded easier access to foreign workers to ameliorate purported crippling
