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Trump concedes new administration will be inaugurated on 20 January

pic.twitter.com/csX07ZVWGe — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) January 8, 2021 President Donald Trump posted his latest video to Twitter, his first Tweet since his expired suspension for inciting violence. In the address, Trump says he is committed to a smooth and orderly transition: “Now Congress has certified the results. A new administration will be inaugurated on

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29

A mortgage lending showdown is brewing

In September MB was left flabbergasted when Treasurer Josh Frydenberg, out of nowhere, announced the government would abolish responsible lending rules. This was a watershed moment in Australia’s transformation into the property equivalent of a narco state given this decision to abolish responsible lending laws directly contravened the very first recommendation from the Hayne Banking

21

China is shrinking, and is about to shrink more

I have noted previously how China’s economy is facing stiff headwinds from an ageing population (see here, here, here, and here). Essentially, China’s ageing problem stems from its ‘one child policy’, which was brought into effect in the early-1970s and is credited with preventing around 400 million births from 1979 to 2010. This policy initially

29

ACCI demands Australia open border to migrants

While the nation grapples with multiple COVID outbreaks imported via returning Australians, the biggest business collective – the Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry (ACCI) – has demanded the federal government open Australia’s international border to ‘skilled’ migrants to alleviate so-called skills shortages: Melbourne-based Raghubir Singh is an experienced motor mechanic who had planned to

23

Macro Morning

Stimulus and vaccine hopes are overriding concerns of more market regulation from a Democrat-controlled Congress, as Wall Street surged to big new record highs overnight, overshadowing the political turmoil seen in the Capitol yesterday. Oil prices continued to lift while Bitcoin remains unstoppable, lifting to a new record high after briefly breaching the $40,000 level,

9

Daily iron ore price update (scrap ban lifts)

The iron ore complex surged on Thursday, bringing prices to new highs as demand for iron ore remains high in the Middle Kingdom: Spot prices exceeding $170USD per ton while coking coal and rebar advanced nearly 2%. The lifting of a two year ban on imported scrap steel into China last week are considered “symbolic

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Links 8 January 2021

Global Macro / Markets / Investing: Dow Rises 600 Points and Sets Record as Democrats Lead Georgia Elections – The Street Stocks fall, bond yield rise as investors brace for possible Democrat triumph in Georgia – Sun Daily World Economy Faces Debt Doom Loop, More Inequity Post Pandemic – Bloomberg Fed’s Mester says policy will

136

Macro Afternoon

A strange day for geo-politics as the US goes bananas – literally – which hasn’t upset risk markets as the certainty around a Biden administration becomes pretty clear.   Bitcoin continues to surge, now above the “insert crazy level here” while gold is trying to recover from its overnight breakdown, up slightly but looking weak here

21

Bitcoin bubbles as Australian dollar floats along

Markets are plain ignoring the political chaos in the US, with the local stock market up nearly 2% and S&P futures up 0.6% as Congress re-convenes.Bitcoin continues its unsustainable but wondrous to behold move higher, hitting the $37000 level overnight and slightly below that level going into the afternoon session. Note the crypto currency has

29

Aussie telcos declare war on Netflix

Two and a half years ago, NBN Co chief Bill Morrow blamed online gaming for creating massive congestion on the National Broadband Network (NBN) network. Accordingly, NBN Co was “evaluating” throttling downloads for users during peak periods in order to relieve  fixed wireless congestion. Then early last year, the blame for NBN congestion was shifted

6

Sydney and Melbourne property listings surge

Property listings rose strongly in Sydney and Melbourne in December when compared to December 2019, according to new figures from SQM Research: Listings in Melbourne were up over 30.5% year-on-year while Sydney listings rose 13.8%. However, year-on-year listings across the rest of the nation were all down. Newer listings, in particular, have increased across Sydney

18

QLD records local COVID case amid another quarantine breach

Australia recorded only one new locally acquired COVID-19 infection overnight – a casual cleaner working in a Queensland quarantine hotel: There are now 225 active locally acquired cases recorded across Australia: NSW still leads the way with 196 active local cases: However, its rate of infection has fallen below the second wave, where NSW suppressed

16

Jacinda Ardern hoisted on her own housing petard

New Zealand Prime Minister, Jacinda Ardern, was elected in 2017 on a platform of fixing New Zealand’s chronic housing crisis. However, Ardern’s Labour Party failed dismally on housing in its first term, failing to deliver on key election promises. Labour’s promised ‘KiwiBuild’ program to build 100,000 public houses descended into a farce, with the government

2

New car sales bounce back

The Federal Chamber of Automotive Industies (FCAI) has released new car sales for December, which revealed that sales continued to rebound: According to FCAI: December 2020 recorded 95,652 sales, a 13.5 per cent increase over the same period in December 2019 when 84,239 were sold. This result follows a similar upturn in November 2020, when

17

Macro Morning

Wall Street continued to surge overnight despite the chaos on Capitol Hill with only the NASDAQ pulling back with European stocks outperforming. Oil prices continued to lift on the Saudi cuts while Bitcoin remains unstoppable, lifting to a new record high to be above $36000 mark at one stage as the daily chart moves further

2

Daily iron ore price update (seaborne volumes drop)

Iron ore prices continued to surge yesterday, despite some hesitation on futures markets as concerns over current iron ore supply weighed on the complex. Here are the latest prices, with rebar and coking coal dropping slightly: Seaborne volumes are in a slight decline: After a two-week rise, iron ore volumes dispatched from 19 ports and

9

RBA Charts the Aussie economy

It’s that time of month, even though the boffins and gearlever holders are on holidays for January they still managed to put out a glorious make benefit for MacroBusiness readers Chart Pack. First, its the measure that all economists love and politicians are slavishly devoted to – GDP: COVID-19 really put the guts into GDP

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Links 7 January 2021

Global Macro / Markets / Investing: Oil breaks above $50 for the first time since February – CNBC The Inflation Doomsayers Are Wrong Again – Bloomberg The land of cheap mortgages just went to zero – Fortune Picking Stocks for 2021: Genomics, Electric Vehicles, Bitcoin – Bloomberg 2020 was the year (almost) none of us

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Macro Afternoon

Another mixed day of trading in Asia with most stock markets declining or putting in minor scratch sessions as Wall Street futures pulled back in the wake of a probable Democrat victory in the special Georgian elections that will decide the fate of the Senate.  Bitcoin continues to surge, now above the $35000 level while

2

Australian and Kiwi dollar in battle of the antipodes

Not much happening in currency land today as risk markets (aka the bots) remain closely tied to the outcome of the Georgia special elections in the US that will decide the fate of the Senate, and hence President-elect Biden’s legislative agenda. In crypto world, Bitcoin is hovering just above the $34000USD level having gotten ahead

14

Foxtel takes Aussie taxpayers to cleaners

Back in July, Foxtel received $10 million from Australian taxpayers to broadcast “women’s, niche and other under-represented sports”. This subsidy followed the $30 million received by Foxtel from Australian taxpayers in 2017. The decision to give Foxtel another $10 million was also fast-tracked through Cabinet and broke the usual “10 Day Rule” for assessing proposals.