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Labor launches biggest ever immigration program

After intimating for months, the Albanese Government confirmed over the weekend that it would use the upcoming Jobs & Skills Summit as cover to launch Australia’s biggest ever immigration program: The government wants to increase the migration intake to between 180,000 and 200,000 a year, which would bring in more skilled migrants including tradies, IT

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Developers choke supply to drive up house prices

Dr Cameron Murray – author of the Book Game of Mates – gave stunning testimony to the parliamentary inquiry into housing affordability, whereby he documented how developers manipulate the land market to ration supply and maximise their profits. Shortly afterwards, ‘Highrise’ Harry Triguboff’s explained how Meriton had deliberately withheld apartment stock from the market to

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Links 15 August 2022

Global Macro / Markets / Investing: Wall Street Is Mostly to Blame for Rising Commodity Prices – Jacobin Back-From-Dead Stocks Show Near-Limitless Tolerance for Trouble  – Bloomberg U.S. Stocks Finish Higher, Extending Rally – WSJ Advertisers Plan To Use ‘Dream-Hacking’ To Implant Branding Into Your Dreams – Contxmedia Dow up 180 points as U.S. stocks

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Weekend Sundries: 13-14 August, 2022

  Geoff McVeigh Sunrise at North Broulee Bushy Statue at Bodalla Hotel Water tower at Sunrise, Narrandera Star Lodge at Narrandera Railway Station, Narrandera Railway Station at Narrandera II East St 151 Jonsens Buildings (built 1893) Narrandera East Street 92 to 94 (built in 1927 by Hayes and Dixon formerly Bank of NSW and Bendigo

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Weekend Reading: 13-14 August 2022

Global Macro / Markets / Investing: Businesses Should Prepare For Risk Of Civil Unrest From Food Scarcity – WSJ JPMorgan Traders ‘Ripped Off’ Gold Market for Years, Jurors Told – Bloomberg The logics that drive world economies do the favor of the elites at the expense of 99% – Films for Action Low Interest Rates

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Macro Afternoon

A flat end to the trading week for Asian stocks in response to the overnight hesitation on Wall Street, although Japanese shares are playing catchup after a mid-week holiday. Currency markets are still applying pressure to the USD with the Australian dollar pushing through the 71 cent level. Meanwhile oil prices are holding on to

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Soaring interest rates trap Aussies in ‘mortgage prison’

Australians that leveraged up to purchase property at the peak of the market risk being trapped in ‘mortgage prison’, according to mortgage experts. They warn that the combination of rising mortgage rates and falling house prices (negative equity) will impede their ability to refinance because they will no longer meet borrower stress tests, potentially trapping

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FWO launches action against university wage thieves

The Fair Work Ombudsman (FWO has launched Federal Court action against the University of Melbourne, alleging that it engaged in unlawful adverse action against two casual academics. They had been engaged by the university on a series of short-term casual teaching contracts over a number of years, with their contracts setting out ‘anticipated hours’. However,

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Property Council cries as working from home takes over

The Property Council has labelled Melbourne’s return-to-office rate as “shameful”, crying for empty office buildings to be filled: Damning new figures from the Property Council of Australia, obtained exclusively by the Herald Sun, shows the city’s rebuild has taken a hit, with office occupancy levels in July well less than half of the pre-Covid baseline

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“Grand bargain” to open immigration floodgates

Details have emerged of a ‘grand bargain’ between business and unions that is likely to be struck at the federal government’s upcoming jobs and skills summit. It is expected to see migration boosted in the October budget to help fill urgent skill and labour shortfalls, in return for longer-term policies on training Australians: A grand

1

Bears are now contrarian!

The equity market has now gotten so excited with its manic reflation that it is recreating the Fed’s inflation problem. Good job! The Market Ear has more on the wild sentiment swings. That went fast: being bearish is now finally contrarian In mid June we ran a series of thematic emails (premium subs only, sign

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Payrolls flame out

Job ads have now peaked in the ANZ index, Seek index and Skilled Vacancies index. Yesterday, ABS Payrolls joined the great flame out: The declines were broad-based for the private setor: The jobs market has begun to soften just as Albo cowards prepare the smash wages: The Albanese government will boost migration at the October

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China continues to understimulate

Goldman with the note. Bottom line: In its Q2 monetary policy report, the PBOC reiterated its accommodative stance by stating monetary policy would “step up support to the real economy” and focus on implementing the already-announced policy measures such as the RMB800bn and RMB300bn additional policy bank credit. The PBOC said policymakers would “strive to

2

Macro Morning

Risk markets were contained overnight with both European and US stocks unable to gain traction post the US CPI print in the previous session. The USD remains slightly weak against the major currencies with Euro holding on to its recent gains while the Australian dollar is at a two month high above the 71 cent

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Albo’s monkeys dance around gas cartel organ-grinder

Albo’s cowards have leaked their grand plan for energy and it is more than a little ridiculous: Chris Bowen and state energy ministers will speed up the rollout of renewables, gas-proof Australia and minimise electricity market shocks under a national plan focused on slashing emissions. The strategy, expected to be signed off by energy ministers

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Australian house prices plummet

Australia’s house price correction is accelerating, according to CoreLogic’s daily dwelling values index, which measures price changes across the five major capital city markets. In the week ended 11 August, dwelling values fell another 0.38% at the aggregate 5-City level – the 14th consecutive weekly decline: The decline was once again led by Sydney, where

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Indian students come to Australia for work, not education

A new survey of education agents by education company Navitas found that the top five factors influencing student choice of study destination globally are: cost of study, quality of education, access to post-study work rights, opportunities to work while studying, and opportunities for permanent migration. However, for students from South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa, they

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Links 12 August 2022

Global Macro / Markets / Investing: JPMorgan Traders ‘Ripped Off’ Gold Market for Years, Jurors Told – Bloomberg Why Wages Should Keep up with Inflation: The Economic Case for Getting a Pay Rise – Byline Times Stocks surge as inflation finally cools off – CNN SpaceX denied nearly $900 million in broadband subsidies – CNN

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Macro Afternoon

Asian stocks are in solid buying mode today as risk markets react positively to the “not too bad, all things considering” inflation print in the US overnight as Wall Street bounced nearly 2% dragging everything else higher as USD sunk. Yen remains strong while the Australian dollar is pushing up against the 71 cent level.

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The ASX dividend trap

At a headline level, Australian dividend yields look good. They paid out 4.5% last year, and are forecast to be 4.8% for next year. Well above global developed markets of a little more than 2%. But, as I showed with valuations last week, the story is more complicated under the surface. High Australian dividends are

5

Melbourne residential land sales bust

RPM Group’s latest Greenfield Market Report shows a sharp slump in house and land sales in Melbourne’s outer-suburban growth corridors. Specifically, lot sales fell 14% in the three months to June compared to the previous quarter, and were down 41% year-on-year. This was a bigger downturn than anticipated. However, the slump in sales has yet