In today’s webinar (12:30 pm AEST, Thursday 14th December), hear from MB Fund’s Head of Investment Damien Klassen, Tim Fuller and expert energy analyst David Leitch as they “Untangle Australia’s Energy Market.” Topics this week include the death of Coal, the potential of renewables to take over Australian energy, which energy-based stocks have potential, the
Via Zero Hedge comes CTA wizard Charlie McElligott of Nomura: Nomura’s Charlie McElligott who echoed what we said on Saturday, writing that “the Treasury selloff feels “tactically tired,” with positioning now well-cleansed (massive duration sale from leveraged funds in the last reporting period, plus short-term CTA model now-having established their “short” TY and ED$ positions
The latest Roy Morgan Research (RMR) unemployment estimate for October showed strong improvement, falling by 0.9% over the month to 7.8%: Over the year, unemployment fell by 1.6%. Underemployment has also fallen by 0.3% over the past year to 8.9%, with labour underutilisation tracking at 16.7% (down from 1.9% from a year ago): Below are
SEEK jobs ads still falling: Bed pans forever!
Via FTAlphaville: In the summer of 2018, Alphaville observed that there seemed to be a paradoxical bull market in being bearish. Since the financial crisis and the ensuing rise to fame of the investors who called — and profited significantly from — it (Bass, Burry, Eisman, Paulson, Gross et al.) there have been almost constant calls for
Via Sinocism: Watching this week’s events in Hong Kong is heartbreaking. There is growing speculation that Beijing may be on the verge of sending in the PLA and/or the People’s Armed Police to attempt to restore order. I am skeptical that anything like that is imminent. There however seems to be no obvious pathway to
Texture via Reuters: Benchmark Dalian iron ore futures jumped in morning trade on Wednesday, extending gains for a second session, after China’s Premier Li Keqiang again vowed to ensure that key economic goals for this year are achieved. China should keep macro policies stable, improve the use of local government special bonds and strengthen support
DXY was strong again as EUR and CNY sank: The Australian dollar fell again against DMs: EMs were mostly weaker still: Gold bounced: And oil: Metals are signalling bad: As are miners: EM stocks rolled: Junk held on: All bonds were strongly bid: Stocks edged down: The day-to-day data was OK with US inflation still
By Chris Becker An unexpectedly lower UK CPI print and continued focus on Hong Kong, combined with all eyes on the Trump impeachment inquiry is seeing risk markets on both sides of the Atlantic wobble as USD becomes mixed against the majors. Gold is making a weak comeback while oil prices are trying to build
Yesterday’s labour price index for the September quarter, released by the ABS, confirmed that the public sector is driving wage growth across the Australian economy: As shown above, public sector wages grew by 2.5% in the year to September, versus a 2.2% increase across the private sector. This continues a long-running trend, with real public
A superficial glance at Australia’s international student numbers reveals an industry in rude health. The number of international student visa applications granted – a leading indicator for new enrolments – hit an all-time high 406,000 in the year to June 2019: The number of new international student enrolments at Australia’s education institutions also hit a
Global Macro / Markets / Investing: Debt Market Bubble’s Bursting – The ‘CLO Sausage Factory’ Is Stalling – Zero Hedge Wall Street bonuses set to drop as banks focus on cost cuts – Crains New York Two Surveys of Global Businesses Slump to Gloomiest Level Since Recession! – Barrons The world economy is headed for
Stocks are falling across the region as tariff concerns over the Chinese trade deal mount alongside increased tensions in Hong Kong. The RBNZ lift its interest rate unchanged which saw the Kiwi leap higher while the Aussie dollar continues its slow deflation as the USD firms against the majors. Chinese stocks are really on the
The Australian dollar is under pressure again this afternoon after today’s wages shocker: Bonds are bid a little but not as much as they should be: XJO is down with S&P futures but the chart still looks very bullish Dalian us trying but so far failing to rally: Big Iron is down again: Big Gas
CoreLogic has released housing affordability data, which shows that affordability peaked in the June quarter of 2019: However, that was as good as it will get given the recent surge in values, especially across Sydney and Melbourne: According to CoreLogic: CoreLogic’s head of research, Tim Lawless, said the return of the “fear of missing out”
With Murdoch University under siege over its poor handling of international student enrolments and its lawsuit against whistle-blower Dr Gerd Schroeder-Turk, an enterprising individual going by the avatar of Murdoch Maven has published the above hilarious parody: “Murdoch Downfall”. Warning: the subtitles contain very explicit language. Enjoy!
Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute (AHURI) has released new research claiming that older empty-nesters are clinging to their larger family-friendly homes. The AHURI also recommends a wide range of tax reforms to encourage seniors to downsize: “They like to stay where they’re familiar,” said lead researcher Associate Professor Stephen Whelan from the University of
Australia is littered with examples of so-called ‘skilled’ migrants gaining visas only to then work in unskilled areas for low pay (e.g. here, here and here). Now, a sinister plan is being hatched to flood Australia with Indian workers to fill imaginary skills shortages: An Indian strategy to boost economic ties with Australia will recommend
NSW Planning Minister has attacked so-called NIMBY baby boomers for opposing high-rise development across Sydney: Baby Boomers are primarily responsible for hostility toward housing growth and density, Planning Minister Rob Stokes says, accusing the generation of being the drivers of so-called NIMBYism… Speaking to developers, planning bureaucrats and community leaders, Mr Stokes said growth had
‘Big Australia’ mass immigration shills claim that Australians no longer want to live in a detached house with a backyard, and are instead choosing high density living and renting: Danni Hunter, Victorian chief executive of the Urban Development Institute of Australia… said density would “grow stronger … and that’s really good for the diversity of
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has just released its Labor Price Index for the September quarter of 2019, which revealed falling wage growth: According to the ABS, wages grew by just 0.53% (both s.a. and trend) in the September quarter. Private sector wages grew by 0.53% (both s.a. and trend) over the quarter, whereas
Via UBS: We expect a recovery in 2020 but a much weaker one than consensus Things will get worse before they get better. Assuming any Phase One US-China deal is limited (no tariff roll-back), the existing tariffs should continue to work their way into the data and create an air-pocket in US growth in H1-20`
The BoAML fundie survey is out, via AFR: “The bulls are back,” said Michael Hartnett, chief investment strategist at the bank. “Investors are experiencing FOMO – the fear of missing out – which has prompted a wave of optimism and jump in exposure to equities and cyclicals.” The survey found that investors are adding risk:
It’s so very rare these days to see an Aussie with balls but Drew Pavlou has ’em. He’s now taken his fight against the CCP takeover of the Univerity of Queensland to the front page of the Financial Times: Drew Pavlou is an unlikely threat to the Chinese Communist party. The 20-year-old arts student at
It looked a bit overdone last month, via Westpac: The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Index of Consumer Sentiment rose 4.5% to 97.0 in November from 92.8 in October. This rise in the Index follows a sharp 5.5% fall in October. The pattern of confidence falling in response to a rate cut and recovering when the RBA remains
Via the always bullish Deloitte: According to Deloitte’s Retailers’ Christmas Survey 2019, positive sentiment is down, in strong contrast to 2018, when retailers were approaching the season with a strong sense of optimism. Now in its eighth year, key survey findings include: Only 62% of retailers expect to see higher sales this Christmas compared to last year, down
Statistics New Zealand has released tourism data showing that more than 1.5 million Australians travelled to New Zealand in year to September 2019 – a record high: Visitor arrivals from Australia exceeded 1.5 million for the year ended September 2019, Stats NZ said today… The lift in visitor arrivals from Australia for the year ended
In the lead-up to the September 2017 general election, the New Zealand Labour Party launched a plan to reduce immigration by around a third in a bid to relieve chronic housing and infrastructure pressures (especially around Auckland): …in recent years our population has been growing rapidly as record numbers of migrants arrive here. This has
It’s unprecendented, at News: New South Wales still has “a long way to go” before the bushfire threat is over, with one particularly dangerous fire still covering 150,000 hectares on its own, and another wave of bad weather on the horizon. Today the focus also shifts to Queensland, where increasingly windy conditions and temperatures in
Via the ABC: Hong Kong police have warned violence is bringing the Chinese-ruled city to the “brink of total breakdown” after more street battles raged in several parts of the territory. Police on Tuesday fired tear gas in the heart of the central financial district and at two university campuses to break up pro-democracy protests.
