By Leith van Onselen Acadata has released its latest house price results for the UK, which shows that house prices are now falling in annual terms for the first time since February 2012: As shown above, house prices were down by 0.5% across the UK in the year to February, and down by 1.5% across
By Leith van Onselen The Coalition is set to announce a small cut in Australia’s permanent non-humanitarian migrant intake in April’s pre-election Budget to a cap of 160,000 from 190,000. From 9 News: Cabinet has authorised the changes, which would slash the targeted annual intake of permanent migrants by up to 30,000… A regional settlement
Because that is its plan. The ACCC confirmed yesterday that the gas cartel is still taking the major piss, via The Australian: Gas prices on Australia’s east coast are set to fall this winter, potentially providing some relief to long-suffering manufacturers and heavy industry, according to data from the competition watchdog. Domestic gas prices may
Iron ore prices for March 18, 2019: Spot up. Paper up more. Steel down. Reuters has the rub: The Brazilian miner said on Saturday that it would cut production at an iron ore mine in the state of Minas Gerais with annual capacity of 12.8 million tonnes and will also suspend operations at its Doutor
But it couldn’t happen here, via the AFR: The fall in Sydney real house prices is close to hitting its average downturn decline at only halfway through the average downturn cycle, setting it up for the sharpest drop for the city since 1965, a BIS Oxford Economics study shows. The average downturn for Sydney house
By Chris Becker US stocks rose overnight while the fortunes for European equities diverged as the FTSE ran higher, the continent trailed as the lower Pound Sterling and the volatile Euro combined with traders waiting for this week’s FOMC meeting put some risk sentiment to rest. Looking first at the action on the Asian session
DXY firmed last night as EUR and CNY were stable: The Australian dollar lifted versus DMs: But not EMs: Gold was firm too: Oil is running again as OPEC jawbones. US shale will not stand on ceremony: Base metals were weak: Big miners were all up: EM stocks jumped with Shanghai: Junk is powering with
Via the excellent George Tharenou at UBS: For the RBA outlook, given the limited policy firepower at a 1.5% cash rate, & our deep dive showing banks likely won’t pass on the full reduction, to make cuts more effective, the RBA should communicate a ‘dovish easing’, with a commitment to further ease if required to
By Leith van Onselen Both the Liberal and Labor parties have engaged in a spending war to sway voters for this week’s State Election. According to Fairfax, the Coalition has pledged around $28 billion in commitments, much of it in health and education, whereas Labor’s election pledges total nearly $24.0 billion. So, no matter which
By Leith van Onselen The Australian Bureau of Statistics yesterday released its overseas short-term arrivals and departures figures for January, which continued to show a trend rise in the number of inbound visitors, with both Chinese arrivals and student arrivals hitting an all-time high. The number of short-term visitor arrivals dived by a seasonal 30.9%
Not according to the CoreLogic leading index this week: Down just as heavily year on year this year as it was last year. New listings are very slow but total listings is still climbing anyway: No panic selling here yet. But a full blown buyer’s strike. Full report.
Global Macro / Markets / Investing: Looking for Hope in the Rubble of Value Investing – WSJ Emerging Markets Aren’t Out of the Woods Yet – Foreign Affairs What’s Wrong with Contemporary Capitalism? – Project Syndicate JPMorgan Sees Lower Need for Hedges Amid Volatility Bear Market – Bloomberg How Parents Are Robbing Their Children of
Following the very positive finish on Wall Street on Friday night, risk markets here in Asia have popped higher, with the Australian dollar advancing strongly, albeit on the tightening yield spread with US Treasuries. The Federal Reserve meeting this week will affect sentiment, along with a series of important economic releases – let alone the
By Leith van Onselen The ABC has asked the question in the wake of Luxembourg’s decision to abolish all fares from next month: “It’s possibly the first example of an entire region, in this case a city-state, making public transport universally free,” says public transport advocate Tony Morton… In 2013, the Estonian capital Tallinn opted
Via Credit Suisse: The price of Australian thermal coal sold to China (5500kcal high-ash) is being hit relative to competitors, at odds with assurances by the Chinese and Australian Governments that there is no ban on Australian coal at China ports. Whether there is a ban or just restrictions, the price suggests importers are not
By Leith van Onselen CoreLogic expects both Sydney and Melbourne to feel the impact of apartment oversupply for the next two years. A glut in both cities is seeing a significant number of new apartments being sold on valuations that are less than what was paid for off-the-plan. From The Australian: “For units that were
The God King’s diary is guiding global markets, via SCMP: A meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping to end the trade war may be put back to June, sources have said, as they will not be able to finalise an agreement by April. It had initially been hoped that they
Following a brace of building supplier warnings:
By Leith van Onselen Economist Callam Pickering has provided the ABC with great analysis explaining why younger Australians have been left behind over the past decade, shunted into part-time employment: 1.85 million new jobs were created between 2008 and 2018… All of which is great news, unless you are a young worker looking for full-time
Over the weekend Chinese house prices were out for February and showed ongoing slowing with month on month prices up 0.5% versus 10.4% year on year: Clearly year on year is about to peak as well. Breadth of gains is also deteriorating slowly with 50/20 split on prices rises and falls/stable across cities: First tier cities
Via Westpac: Total employment lifted a solid 39.1k in January, well clear of the market median of 15k. The year started with a solid trend pace of employment growth with a three month average gain of 31.9k. While it is just one month into the year, employment has gained 271k in the year to January
By Leith van Onselen Flammable cladding-related insurance policy exclusions may force fire engineers and building surveyors out of business. Such exclusions are increasingly being inserted by insurers in the wake of recent fires at the Lacrosse and Neo 200 buildings. However, building regulators will not register surveyors and fire engineers if their professional liability insurance
By Leith van Onselen From mid-2018, new car sales across Australia nose-dived on the back of the housing crash, with Victoria (-11.7%), New South Wales (-11.0%) and Western Australia (-8.3%) – i.e. the markets where house prices are crashing – recording the biggest year-on-year falls in new car sales: Now, Roy Morgan Research has released
By Leith van Onselen Leaked emails from industry experts have shredded the roll-out of Australia’s National Broadband Network (NBN) and warned that taxpayers face a potential $20 Budget hit. From The Saturday Paper: In the unusually frank correspondence, sent between members of a discussion list hosted by advocacy body Internet Australia, industry veteran Robin Eckermann
By Leith van Onselen The federal government announced in the 2017 Budget that it would remove a capital gains tax (CGT) exemption for around 100,000 expatriate Australians who sell their main residence while overseas. While the measure was projected to raise $581 million over the forward estimates, it has been condemned by tax and legal
Via Deloitte: The economy is getting worse, but the Budget’s getting better. That’s unusual: people think politicians drive the Budget, but it’s almost always the economy in the driver’s seat. So it is undeniably bad news that the economy has been taking a few hits since the Budget update was issued ahead of Christmas. It’s hard to pick up a newspaper without getting depressed: global
By Leith van Onselen Fairfax’s Crispin Hull has clearly taken over from Ross Gittins (who has curiously gone silent) in pointing-out the pitfalls of the ‘Big Australia’ mass immigration policy. Back in January 2017, Hull argued that the main solution to making housing more affordable rests with winding-back immigration: The principal cause of housing unaffordability
Via Shane Oliver comes a nice piece on the rise of the Millennial left: When I was in my early 20s I thought socialism might be the way to go. Two things happened. One I studied economics which led me to the conclusion that socialism/heavy state intervention doesn’t lead to the best outcome in terms
At the end of 2017, it became apparent that Melbourne’s house and land market had become an giant bubble after the median price for a housing lot hit $318,500 – up 31.5% in only 12 months. In mid-2018, we learned that that Chinese developers had taken control of Melbourne’s land supply pipeline, driving-up prices even further: Chinese developers have
The wages war rages on with more good material from the suddenly less Fake Left over the weekend. Mike Seccombe at The Saturday Paper: Back then Tony Abbott’s chosen employment spokesman, Eric Abetz, led the scare campaign, doing his very best to talk up the threat of an economy-wrecking wages breakout. He was never clearer than
