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Iraqi Parliament votes to kick out US troops

by Chris Becker Well this is a turn after the US assassinated a top Iranian general in Iraq over the weekend  – and it would at least make Trump happy by undoing even more of Obama’s legacy if the US completely got out of Iraq. From Reuters: Iraq’s parliament called on Sunday for U.S. and

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  The positive start to the trading year soured on Friday night on the news of the US airstrike assassination of a top Iranian general, combined with a very disappointing ISM manufacturing print saw US stocks fall. US Treasury yields fell alongside the USDJPY pair as safe haven bids took hold, while both

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Links 6 January 2020

Global Macro/Investing/Climate Change: The Middle Class Risks Consuming Itself: Health care and education employ a lot of people and sell services they increasingly can’t afford. – Bloomberg Thousands of Australians forced from their homes by rampaging bushfires now find themselves stuck in makeshift camps, fearful for the future & turned refugees in their own country

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Weekend Links, 4-5 January, 2020

Golden Summer, Clarendon, John Olsen, 1983, Art Gallery of NSW   Macro & Markets These 6 charts compare the US and China economies in the second year of their trade war – CNBC Vietnam and Asia neighbors hungry for cheap coal – Nikkei Economic ‘Doom Loops’ Get Harder to Avoid in 2020s – Bloomberg Killing

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Macro Afternoon

The risk complex is reeling from higher tensions in the Middle East as a top Iranian general is killed, with oil prices spiking considerably in the wake of the attack. Stocks are generally down in the region, although the local market was spared while gold also spiked higher on the tension. The Shanghai Composite is

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Daily iron ore price update (rebar to the moon)

by Chris Becker The iron ore complex started the new year in a complicated style yesterday with spot iron ore and Shanghai steel futures retreating despite a big monetary policy goosing by the PBOC to help spur on economic growth. Longer dated futures did better, although rebar took a hit as well as inventory levels

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  The start of the trading year was much better in the Northern Hemisphere overnight, with Wall Street rallying as tech stocks pushed the risk complex higher, despite a reversal in strength in USD which saw Euro and Pound Sterling fall. Gold prices continued their uptrend while Bitcoin remains depressed below the $7000

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Links 3 January 2020

Global Macro, Markets and Investing: The 2010s were a lost decade for climate. We can’t afford a repeat, scientists warn. – WaPo The eurozone’s tectonic plates are shifting. Debate on the future of monetary union has come out into the open — that is a game-changer – FT Without Evidence, Trump Accuses Iran of ‘Orchestrating

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Macro Afternoon

The big move on the return of Asian stock markets today after the New Year was cut the PBOC cutting banks’s reserve requirement ratio by 50 bps, starting next week which in effect releases nearly $1trillion in funding. At the same time, a drop to 6.96 on the official daily Yuan fix has seen risk

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MB Fund Podcast: Spotting Dodgy Advice

An episode from the archives this week – this one bringing brings dodgy financial advice under the spotlight. Sharing your financial and personal affairs with another person is not easy, made worse if it results in you paying them to line their pockets with your retirement savings. Join us as we run through the key

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Australian dollar soars into New Year

by Chris Becker Well the Pacific Peso has started the new year over the 70 handle versus USD, capping off a big rally since the start of December: In the short term, momentum is hugely overcooked, running at twice the normal level that happens during a rally, so expect a retracement soon. This rally is

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  The end of the trading year was marked by a lot of profit taking and squaring up as the month end and quarterly end triple witching saw major rebalances in equity portfolios, although Wall Street was largely immune from any downside volatility. Gold finished on a high while the USD came back

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Daily iron ore price update (record high)

by Chris Becker Iron ore was the best performing commodity across all markets in 2019, with both spot and futures ending the last trading day of the year higher. It’s all about demand, although the Vale roadblock of supply has not yet been filled in, Chinese crude steel output continues to climb with nearly a

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Links 2 January, 2020

The Flood in the Darling 1890, W.C. Piguenit, 1895, Art Gallery of NSW   Macro, Markets & Investing The Decade in Which Everything Was Great But Felt Terrible – The Atlantic US, China and Germany profit most from global free trade, says WTO – DW From opioid deaths to student debt: A view of the

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New Years Day Links, 1 January 2020

Fire haze at Gerringong, Lloyd Rees, 1980, Art Gallery of NSW   Macro, Markets & Investing It’s more than a decade since the financial crisis. Where’s the recovery? – Guardian White House expecting agreement with China ‘within next week or so’ – Guardian The Decade of Debt: big deals, bigger risk – Reuters What’s wrong

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Macro Afternoon

Asian stock markets remain in light volume mode, which always increases the risk of volatility, especially to the downside where selloffs were the order of the day. The USD was still weaker, in particular against gold which ran up to a three month high above $1520 USD per ounce. The Shanghai Composite is up just

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Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  The Santa Claus rally on risk assets is over with a wide selloff overnight as traders square up their results for the year. Both Wall Street and Europe saw the same losses – around 0.75% or so – on stock markets, while oil and gold prices were steady. Volume still remains pretty

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Daily iron ore price update (flat finish)

by Chris Becker Iron ore benchmark prices and short term futures retraced a little to finish relatively flat on Monday as concerns over upcoming January pollution restrictions mount in the short term, while longer dated steel futures remain well supported. The Tianjin spot price gained a little, and looks set to finish up well over

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New Years Eve Links 31 December 2019

  Global Macro / Markets / Climate Change: 2019 has been the best year in global history. Child mortality is at its lowest ever. Every day 170,000 people moved out of extreme poverty, 325,000 people got their first access to electricity, 200,000 got piped water for the first time & 650,000 went online – NYT

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Macro Afternoon

With most markets here in Asia are still in light volume mode, there continues to be some downside volatility in USD as the year draws to a close. The Chinese Yuan is appreciating, with a drop below the 6.98 level in offshore trading while gold jumped another $5 to be above the $1515USD per ounce

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Macro Morning (Trading Week)

By Chris Becker  Given the thin and volatile trading over the Christmas Period, this morning’s report will take a step back and look at the weekly trend overall. Starting with local Asian share markets where the Shanghai Composite finished the week just above 3000 points after dipping well below that level during the Christmas week

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Daily iron ore price update (deliveries spike)

by Chris Becker Thin trading over Christmas coupled with the lifting of anti-smog measures has seen the iron ore price rise going into the new year, with Tianjin spot up to $91.55 while Dalian futures are up over 1%:   Meanwhile, seaborne iron ore deliveries have spiked again after production curbs were lifted. From Hellenic

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Links 30 December 2019

  Global Macro / Markets / Investing: Australian miners hit by biggest thermal coal price drop in more than a decade – The Guardian Trump Tariffs Backfired, Federal Reserve Study Found – NewsMax World’s Richest Gain $1.2 Trillion in 2019 as Jeff Bezos Retains Crown -Bloomberg Universal Basic Income: An Idea Whose Time Has Come

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Weekend Links 28-29 December 2019

Global Macro / Markets / Investing: Germany just guaranteed unemployed citizens around $330 per month indefinitely. The policy looks a lot like basic income. – Business Insider U.S. Fed buys $825 million of mortgage bonds, sells none. – Reuters Why Is Inflation Low Globally? -FRSB Forget Stock Market Forecasts. They’re Less Than Worthless.  – New

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Macrobusiness Links, 27 December, 2019

Summer in the You Beaut Country, John Olsen, 1962, National Gallery of Victoria   Macro & Markets China says it is in close touch with U.S. on trade deal signing ceremony – Reuters China treads warily on US trade deal text to keep other partners on side – SCMP Trump Won’t Be Able to Let

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Christmas and Boxing Day Links 2019

Global Macro / Markets / Investing: Boeing CEO Fired – ABCNews Tesla stock reaches $420, more than a year after Musk’s ‘funding secured’ tweet – CNBC Short-Term Thinking Is Poisoning American Business – Wall Street analysts dissect quarterly earnings like never before. 78% of executives at public companies said that they would sacrifice long-term value

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MB over Christmas

Thanks everyone for the support this year. It was another great year of tracking the economy within its global context, as well as pouring scorn on the Rum Corp. Leith and I hope that you all enjoy a merry and safe holiday period. So does the team at the MB Fund, Damien and Tim. Chris

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Amusing bonds price in rate hikes

Because that’s how good the global and Australian recovery will be in 2020. Bonds have just about completed pricing the first rate hike: This is largely being driven by global steepening as stocks run wild: But is has also been the result of local bonds selling faster than US, narrowing the spread: A few checks