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China’s agents of influence peddle decoupling drivel

Via The Fake Left: China’s widening trade actions against Australia have disrupted exports worth up to $19bn a year, according to new analysis, sparking calls for the Morrison government to seek a reset in the relationship to forestall further economic pain. Labor’s agriculture and resources spokesman, Joel Fitzgibbon, said: “How much more harm must our


Morrison: Virus whipped. Unleash infected foreign horde!

Our wonderful leadership reverts to mean so fast: Scott Morrison is setting his sights on bringing international students and workers into Australia as more states ease coronavirus restrictions and manage outbreaks. Mr Morrison has reflected on publicly pushing to reopen the whole country by Christmas a few months ago. His next priority is attracting university


NBN blames streamers and gamers for poor service

Around two years ago, former CEO of NBN Co blamed online gamers for creating congestion on the National Broadband Network (NBN) and threatened to throttle internet speeds: NBN Co is “evaluating” slowing down or limiting downloads for users during peak times in order to overcome these fixed wireless congestion problems. At a parliamentary hearing in


El Trumpo builds polling momentum

The latest polling averages are better El Trumpo: Battleground states have closed the gap a little: Betting is unimpressed: 538 sees an even larger landslide: Probably rightly. There is always a late swing to the incumbent but the gap remains to large and the virus resurgence cannot help El Trumpo: He only has until next


CPI in Detail: lowflation

As reported in brief earlier, Australia’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in at 1.6% in the September quarter – rebounding from the largest quarterly fall in the 72 year history of the CPI recorded in the June quarter: Over the year, CPI rose by just 0.7%: Looking at the major components, you can see that


Seniors group lashes biased JobMaker wage subsidy

The Treasury’s submission to a Senate inquiry into the JobMaker hiring credit scheme contends that its focus on people aged 16-35 is justified as this age group has a much higher unemployment rate than the broader population. However, the Council on the Ageing (cota) has hit back, using their submission to raise concern that employers


Small business revenue jump to hit JobKeeper subsidies

Research undertaken by Xero Small Business Insights and AlphaBeta, based on a sample of 100,000 companies, suggests that small business revenue increased by 5.2% year-on-year in September. It is the highest growth in revenue since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic and could push a large number of JobKeeper recipients off the subsidy: The extraordinary


RBA: Recession is over. MB: It will linger for years

Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) deputy governor, Guy Debelle, told a Senate Estimates hearing yesterday that he believes Australia’s recession officially ended in the September quarter with the negative print in Victoria more than offset by growth elsewhere: “Our best guess is it looks like the September quarter for the country recorded positive growth rather


Report: Why Australia shouldn’t fear an ageing population

Sustainable Population Australia (SPA) has released an excellent new report, entitled “Silver tsunami or silver lining? Why we should not fear an ageing population”, written by Queensland academic Dr Jane O’Sullivan. The report expertly debunks the notion that an Ageing population poses a material risk to the Australian economy, alongside self-defeating arguments that Australia needs


The gas cartel wins

The new energy issues paper released by the Minister for the Gas Cartel, Keith Pitt, has produced a debate as devoid of ideas and facts as the paper itself. As usual, it is all rentier and no Australia at the AFR: A new Morrison government discussion paper on gas reservation has flagged a sensible backflip


Macro Morning

A flurry of potentially good economic releases did not stave the risk off mood overnight as the chance of any stimulus this side of the US election closed out as the Senate was put out to pasture by the Republicans. A solid September durable goods orders and equally fixed consumer confidence print had little impact


Australian dollar deer in virus headlights

Everything is levitating in vain hope that the virus will just go away. DXY: The Australian dollar: Gold: Oil: Metals: Except for miners: EM stocks are floating: Junk too: But Treasuries have puked the steepening trade: Stocks are diving in Europe and have a terrifying double top chart in the US: Data from Westpac: Event


CBA: Mortgage lending strong again in September

According to CBA’s internal data, Australian mortgage lending strengthened further in September, up 30% year-on-year: However, average loan sizes are shrinking; albeit are still higher year-over-year: The share of fixed rate lending remained at high levels, driven by fixed rates being lower than variable rates: Lending for renovations continued to grow, likely driven by people


Errant courtier demands Virgin Premier’s head

Via Domain: A former NSW auditor-general has warned that the shredding of documents related to $250 million in council grants was likely to be unlawful and should end Gladys Berejiklian’s leadership. Tony Harris, who has also served as a senior Commonwealth public servant, said he was confident the Premier’s office breached the State Records Act


Roach: Lockdown not freedom is winning the great virus fight

By STEPHEN S. ROACH at Project Syndicate: US President Donald Trump wears his recent experience with COVID-19 infection as some perverse badge of courage, rather than as a warning of what may lie ahead. And the adverse economic consequences of his administration’s approach to the pandemic could not contrast more sharply with the robust recovery


Deloitte: Victoria faces a long road back to economic recovery

From Deloitte Access Economics’ Weekly Economic Briefing: Monday was a milestone day for Victoria, with the state recording its first day of zero COVID cases since early June. And with the passing of that milestone, the state announced the loosening of a raft of restrictions, allowing retail and hospitality to reopen from midnight tonight, and


Links 28 October 2020

Global Macro / Markets / Investing: Dow sinks almost 900 points amid surging COVID-19 cases – UPI You’re Not Welcome Here: How Social Distancing Can Destroy The Global Economy – NPR Bond Defaults Deliver 99% Losses in New Era of U.S. Bankruptcies – Bloomberg Modern Monetary Theory and the crisis of capitalism: Part one –


Macro Afternoon

Stocks markets are falling across the region in response to the big stumble on Wall Street and in Europe overnight, with a retreat to safe havens like Yen and gold, the latter inching back above the $1900USD per ounce level but still looking weak here as its medium term uptrend remains under threat: The Shanghai


CommSec: Victoria leads nation on economic growth

MB has long ridiculed CommSec’s State of the States report for providing inaccurate assessments of the economy. Today is no exception, with CommSec ranking Victoria number one for economic growth: Even though this growth performance has been driven by Victoria’s nation-beating population growth: Obviously, the experience on the ground in Victoria has been far less


Treasury: JobMaker will fail to make jobs

During his Budget speech earlier this month, Treasurer Josh Frydenberg spruiked that the “new JobMaker hiring credit to encourage businesses to hire younger Australians” would “support around 450,000 jobs for young people”. However, Treasury official Jenny Wilkinson yesterday told a Senate estimates hearing that the scheme may actually result in just 45,000 additional jobs, as