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Mortgage arrears stable

Via S&P: Australian prime home-loan arrears stabilized in May after rising in preceding months, according to a recently published report by S&P Global Ratings. The Standard & Poor’s Performance Index (SPIN) for Australian prime mortgages was largely unchanged, declining to 1.52% in May from 1.53% a month earlier. Arrears in May were up 13 basis

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Capital Economics: RBA to cut to -50bps

Via Capital Economics chief economist Marcel Thieliant: Mr Thielant’s central scenario is that cutting interest rates to 0.5 per cent will be sufficient to restore growth and eventually return underlying inflation to the RBA’s target but if more stimulus were required, he says he is concerned that the government would probably remain reluctant to loosen

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Former Howard Minister laments loss of car industry

Former Howard Government minister, Nick Minchin, has lashed the Abbott Government for allowing the car industry to go under: “It’s extremely disappointing that it was the first Coalition governm­ent elected after Labor’s interregnum in 2013 that presided over the closure of the car industry. It would not have taken much to ensure that maybe not

2

China continues shadow banking crackdown

Via Caixin: Financial regulators have instructed 12 more trust companies to keep their investments in real estate in check and stop illegally funding developers, in an effort to stave off speculation in the rebounding property market. The widening clampdown on trust financing of real estate projects is a sign of regulators’ unease that the rapid

1

Professor flogs company tax cut dead horse

The University of Melbourne’s John Freebairn argues that reducing the tax rate for larger non-resident shareholders would stimulate economic growth and help to increase wages. From The Australian: Mr Freebairn said lower tax rates for large corporations would provide a “stimulus to the investor”, which would see “GDP grow” and that “some of that goes

18

APRA staff: Management is captured

At the AFR come stunning leaks from APRA staff via its internal review: “When institutions are consistently able to get a different result by appealing to GM levels and above, line supervisors become demoralised and institutions become emboldened to push the limits,” one employee said. …One employee speaking under the protection of anonymity said the

15

Aussie uni Confuscius institutes Communist Party apparatchiks

Via the ABC: Australian students are being taught Chinese language and culture by teaching assistants vetted by the Chinese Government for “good political quality” and a love of “the motherland”. The assistants teach Mandarin alongside Australian teachers in classrooms and universities across the country under the Confucius Institute program overseen by Chinese Government agency Hanban.

7

Aussie tourism industry killed by mass immigration

Roy Morgan has released new research showing that Australia’s tourism industry is growing only because of strong population growth: It’s Official: Australian population growth since 2000 is powering the travel industry as proportionally fewer Australians are taking a holiday today than two decades ago. In 2000/01 some 10.7 million Australians each year had at least

24

“Day zero” approaches for drought affected towns

Regional communities across Australia are staring down the barrel of what authorities dub “day zero”: Almost a dozen towns across regional New South Wales and southern Queensland are staring down the battle of a crisis that’s been dubbed “day zero”. It describes the looming risk of running out of drinking water, as the ongoing drought

21

Scumbag Property Council lashes Victorian flammable cladding levy

The rent-seeking Property Council has attacked the Victorian Government’s $600 million funding package to remove dangerous flammable cladding, claiming the $300 million building levy “risks massive cost increases”: The Property Council has welcomed the Victorian Government’s plan for the rectification of cladding affected buildings but has warned that a 700 per cent increase in building

5

The endless global LNG glut

Via Reuters: The United States and China will become the world’s biggest liquefied natural gas (LNG) exporters and importers, respectively, in five years, according to projections by the International Energy Agency (IEA). U.S. LNG exports are expected to rocket to over 100 billion cubic meters (bcm) in 2024, dislodging current market leaders Australia and Qatar,

3

And now for an oil shock!

From the IEA last night: The main message of this Report is that in 1H19 oil supply has exceeded demand by 0.9 mb/d. Our latest data show a global surplus in 2Q19 of 0.5 mb/d versus previous expectations of a 0.5 mb/d deficit. This surplus adds to the huge stock builds seen in the second

15

RBA: High immigration has destroyed housing affordability

In October 2017, Labor’s open borders immigration extremist, Dr Andrew Leigh, penned a spurious article claiming that Australia’s mass immigration ‘Big Australia’ policy has not pushed-up house prices: An OECD survey of the relevant studies concludes that migrants have a minimal impact on housing prices. Seven out of 10 new migrants to Australia either live

0

Aussie leading index lifts to mediocre

Via Westpac: • The six month annualised growth rate in the Westpac– Melbourne Institute Leading Index, which indicates the likely pace of economic activity relative to trend three to nine months into the future, rose from –0.47% in May to –0.02% in June. These monthly movements can be choppy. Nevertheless the index growth rate remains

54

Flammable cladding removal to cost “many, many billions of dollars”

The Victorian Government’s $600 million funding package to remove dangerous flammable cladding has been labelled inadequate by consumer advocate Anne Paten, who claims the rectification costs will be “many, many billions of dollars”: Consumer advocate Anne Paten, from the Victorian Building Action Group, said the $600 million funding package would not come close to fixing

1

RBA foghorn: Lowe bullying Recessionberg, not other way around

Interesting from RBA foghorn Terry Mccrann today: Any suggestion that Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe compromised his or the RBA’s independence with his ‘meet and quote’ with Treasurer Josh Frydenberg last week is just silly and quite simply doesn’t square with the facts. Very obviously, Lowe hasn’t needed to be bullied by a politician into

6

Wayne Byers must resign immediately

Obviously enough. Via the ABC: An independent review is urging the overhaul of the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA), slamming it for a poor culture and variable leadership. In a proposed shake-up of the often secretive regulator, a three member panel chaired by former ACCC chairman Graeme Samuel said change was needed. “APRA appears to

6

Lo and behold: Gas reservation lowers prices

Hoocoodanode! Via the AFR: Taylor clearly believes in adding more political pressure – given his insistence that prices must come down a lot further. That includes potentially toughening the Australian Domestic Gas Security Mechanism established two years ago to ensure no shortfall in the domestic market due to the export of LNG from Queensland. The

2

Daily iron ore price update (glowing short)

The spot price crawled higher. Paper sold off. Steel isn’t going anywhere. In news, China is hammering speculators via Dalian price hikes, at Reuters: * China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) said it will raise transaction fees for all iron ore futures contracts to 0.01% from 0.006% of the trading value, starting July 18, the bourse

2

Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  The US earnings season has had a hiccup as Trump puts his foot in his mouth again with a threat of more tariffs on China, while a missive to start negotiating with the Iranians has seen the oil price drop over 2% as the USD lifted. The latest US retail sales number

23

Temporary skilled migrant visas scam Australian workers

On Monday, employer lobby the Committee for Economic Development of Australia (CEDA) released spurious ‘research’ claiming that the surge in temporary migration into Australia has had no adverse impacts on wages, is unambiguously good for the Australian economy, and calls for the expansion of temporary migration: CEDA’s analysis shows that contrary to some concerns, recent

9

Expert: International student numbers are peaking

Abul Rizvi, a former senior Immigration Department official, believes that international student arrivals to Australia will soon slow, whereas student departures will also increase, leading to a fall in overall numbers. From The ABC: Abul Rizvi, a former senior Immigration Department official… said “somewhat faster growth in student departures is more likely”. He added that