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New federal ICAC takes aim at Sly ScoMo

Max Opray, Schwartz Media’s morning editor, has neatly summed up the revelations that former Prime Minister Scott Morrison secretly gave himself joint responsibility for the health, finance and resources ministries, in contravention of the Westminster democratic system of government: The Albanese government has ordered a search for documents authorising former prime minister Scott Morrison to

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5

China’s growth era is over

Pantheon kicks us off with an analysis of Chinese July data: China: Industrial production growth slowed to 3.8% y/y in July, from 3.9% in June.  Consensus was 4.3%. China: Retail sales growth slowed to 2.7% y/y in July, from 3.1% in June.  Consensus was 4.9%. China: FAI growth fell to 5.7% ytd y/y in July,

0

Macro Morning

Risk markets reacted fairly positively overnight to some weak economic data out of China and the US with Wall Street lifting slightly to continue its previous solid trading week.  The USD as a result extended its gains with a near 1% rise against the major currencies with Euro the main casualty, but also knocking the

3

Australian dollar slain by China

DXY bounced hard last night: AUD was slain: All commodities and EMs were trashed: Treasuries were bid: Stocks only go up: Westpac has the wrap: Event Wrap US homebuilder confidence (NAHB) fell to 49 (est. 54, prior 55) – the lowest since May 2020. The report noted builder confidence continues to be affected by the FOMC’s rate

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Albo’s migrant scab grab foretells another ‘lost decade’ for Aussies

After the Albanese Government on the weekend confirmed that it would ramp-up immigration to record levels following next month’s Jobs & Skills Summit, a conga line of special interests have demanded their fill. The Business Council of Australia (BCA) has demanded four year visas for temporary ‘skilled’ migrants alongside a guaranteed pathway to permanent residency:

27

RBA torpedoes Melbourne house prices

Much like Sydney’s, Melbourne house price losses have accelerated, with values down 3.9% from their peak: Melbourne dwelling values started falling sharply after the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) initial interest rate rise on 3 May. Since that first hike, Melbourne’s dwelling values have plummeted by 3.7%. Alongside even heavier falls across Sydney (-5.6%), these

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Links 16 August 2022

Global Macro / Markets / Investing: One-third of the food we eat is at risk because the climate crisis is endangering butterflies and bees – CNN High Prices, Range Anxiety Holding Back EV Adoption – Statista Wall Street Bets on Both Green Energy and Fossil Fuels – WSJ Jeremy Grantham still expects the S&P 500

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Macro Afternoon

A relatively mixed start o the trading week for Asian stocks in response to very solid session on Wall Street on Friday night, with Chinese stocks the laggards as the USD returns to strength. The Australian dollar has faltered slightly to be just below the 71 cent level while Euro continues to fall going into

21

NDIS rorters run rampant

When the National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS) began to be rolled out in 2016, we warned that it would attract an army of fraudsters middle-men seeking their slice of the multi-billion honey pot on offer. After all, witnessed similar rorting under the private vocational education and training (VET) and pink batts schemes, alongside the rorting

8

Norway shows Australia the way on gas super profits taxes

The Australia Institute’s chief economist and executive director, Richard Denniss, has published startling analysis showing that the Norwegian Government will this year collect $137 billion from their oil industry courtesy of their well designed super profits tax. In turn, Norway’s Sovereign Wealth Fund will soar to $1.8 trillion – shared among only 5.3 million people.

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Chairman Dan gains unassailable election lead

Despite mass ministerial resignations/retirements, Melbourne’s seven months of hard lockdowns, mass privatisations (despite promising otherwise), and a raft of corruption scandals, Daniel Andrews’ Victorian Government is headed for an even bigger majority at the upcoming Victorian election: The ALP on 60.5% (up 1% point from early July) has increased its election-winning lead in Victoria over the

2

Economists back gas reservation and super profits taxes

The latest survey of “48 leading economists” by the Economic Society of Australia and The Conversation asked “what other actions could authorities take to bring the inflation rate down?”. The second and third most popular choices related to reining in the gas cartel via domestic reservation and super profits taxes on fossil fuel producers: It’s

2

Global inflation still rising

Morgan Stanley with the note. Global headline inflation climbed to 6.7%Y in June vs 6.3%Y in May. Food and energy prices are still main drivers. Global FX depreciation against the US dollar does not help, we analyze the FX pass-through to headline inflation and identify the most-exposed economies. Global inflation is still increasing, and recent

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Four variables that will determine Australia’s house price crash

Australia’s auction results rallied for the third consecutive week, with the preliminary clearance rate lifting above 60% for the first time since early June after 61.5% of auctions returned a successful result (up 2.0% from last week): The rebound nationally was driven by Melbourne, whose preliminary clearance rate rebounded to 65.5%. This was the highest

2

How fast will US inflation fall?

Nordea sees it as slow and painful and not just in America. ——————————————————————————————————————————- The global economy continues to lose momentum, but central banks will concentrate on their efforts to rein in inflation. Long yields will rebound to higher levels, while the EUR/USD has more downside left. Many leading economic indicators have taken a beating, and

6

No bears left!

The Market Ear with more on how far the bear market rally has run to correct market positioning. Short covering getting extreme Short covering getting extreme as net US hedge fund flows turn positive. JPM writes: “…the short covering has been the main driver of late and is now one of the most extreme in the

0

Macro Morning

Stock markets finished the trading week with vigour on Friday night with big gains on Wall Street as inflation expectations may have peaked with the latest US CPI print. The USD returned to form and gained some 0.5% against the major currencies with Euro in the main retracing back most of its post-CPI gains, while

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No FOMO! Shorts pile into Australian dollar

DXY was up Friday night: AUD is on a rampage: Oil eased: Metals too: The AUD miners are not rebounding much: EM stocks popped: Junk is food for bulls: But the Treasury curve is still deeply inverted: As stocks price Nirvana: Contrary to wider bullishness and FOMO, markets are getting more short AUD: While stock