Links 17 July 2018

Global Macro / Markets / Investing: How a $139 Billion Fund Is Trading the Trade War – Bloomberg Bond markets signal early end to Fed rate rises – FT Amazon’s share of the US e-commerce market is now 49%, or 5% of all retail spend – Tech Crunch Infographic: A Short History of U.S. Trade

Latest posts


An automation apocalypse for older workers

By Leith van Onselen Back in March, job search website Adzuna estimated that around one-third Australian jobs could be lost to automation by 2030, with lower-skilled and manual labour jobs most at risk. Now, a new collaboration study between Marsh & McLennan’s Global Risk Centre, Mercer, and Oliver Wyman, estimates that Australian workers, like other nations,


Adani’s mega-mine would destroy thousands of coal jobs

By Leith van Onselen MB has vigorously opposed the Adani Carmichael mega coal mine from the outset on the grounds that: Adani’s own hand-picked economic expert, Jerome Fahrer from ACIL Allen consulting, told the Queensland Land Court that only 1,464 full-time equivalent jobs would be created by the project; The project will create all manner


ACT Government keeps manipulating land supply

By Leith van Onselen I have explained previously (here, here and here) how the ACT Government deliberately manipulates urban land supply in order to maintain exorbitant land/house prices. Despite having an abundance of developable land, the Government has for a long-time drip-fed supply to the market, maintaining an artificial land shortage (scarcity) and, in the


Daft Ciobo wants as many FTAs as possible

By Leith van Onselen After penning a Panglossian article last week spruiking the great riches that have come from Australia’s free trade agreements (FTAs), Australia’s trade minister, Steve Ciobo, has indicated that more FTAs are on the horizon. From The AFR: Australia’s growing network of free trade deals is crucial to buffeting the economy against


Long-term migrant arrivals hit record high in May

By Leith van Onselen The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has released visitor arrivals and departures data for the month of May, which again posted turbo-charged net annual permanent and long-term arrivals. In the year to May 2018, there were 803,030 permanent and long-term arrivals into Australia – up 4% from May 2017 and an


Sydney and Melbourne risk “homelessness epidemic”

By Leith van Onselen Industry Super chief economist, Stephen Anthony, penned a detailed article in Fairfax over the weekend warning of a “homelessness epidemic” in Sydney and Melbourne due to the serious lack of affordable and social housing, and offering policy solutions: Australia stands on the precipice of a major social crisis. Industry Super estimates


Industry exposes the idiocy of the NEG

Via the AFR: Big business, energy companies industry groups have called on the Turnbull government to allow future governments to be able to adjust the emissions reduction target more often than every five years to ensure Australia meets its international climate targets. With the Energy Security Board finalising the design of the National Energy Guarantee


Macroprudential 3.0 prevents banks lifting investor lending

The Australian has been doing some shopping around: Australian banks have been dragging their feet in meeting new rules on home lending, despite regulatory appeals to wean the industry off riskier loans. The Australian understands no major bank has yet been given the green light to grow their property investor lending book above 10 per


Australia’s little financial crisis gets worse not better

Via the AFR this morning: Australia’s banks will be forced to find an additional $70 billion of funding as superannuation funds shift out of cash into international assets while indebted households draw down on their savings. The widening of the so-called “funding gap”, which measures the difference between bank loans and deposits, comes amid a


If the Coalition cuts immigration it will win the election

Via The Australian: Liberal senator Dean Smith is urging Malcolm Turnbull to sanction a wide-ranging Senate inquiry into Australia’s population policy, believing the recent reduction in immigration levels does not go far enough to ease community concerns about population growth. With the national population to hit 25 million next month, the West Australian senator has


Paul Kelly poos his pants over Trump

Lordy, Paul Kelly needs to change his undies: Donald Trump is unleashed and is changing history. Trump now is implementing what he promised — dismantling the existing global order created by America, punishing its allies for short-changing the US, imposing a new protectionism and deconstructing the governing status quo in Washington. Trump is delivering for


Toxic Guardian turns propaganda outfit for wage-destroying business

It’s weird to the point of ideological absurdity. The commitment of The Guardian Australia to its ideology of ‘migrant welfare before all’ is now so extreme that it’s spent the last several days digging up every wages-destroying business blood-sucker it can find to give them a platform against any tightening in visa requirements. No other


Sydney auction collapse continues

CoreLogic released its auction report yesterday, which reported another fall in the preliminary national auction clearance rate to 55.8% from 55.9% last weekend (later revised down to 52.6%). Sydney’s auction clearance rate was also revised down to 50.1%. The preliminary clearance rate was also way below the 69.4% recorded in the same weekend of last


What does ethical investing cost?

Jeremy Grantham’s GMO offered a recent presentation talking about climate change and investing at the LSE: http://www.lse.ac.uk/GranthamInstitute/news/the-mythical-peril-of-divesting-from-fossil-fuels/ The main chart that caught my eye was a one on the long-term effect of excluding an entire sector from the index : Basically, my interpretation is that if you decided to exclude an entire sector from your investment


Coalition parachutes lackey into Productivity Commission

By Leith van Onselen On Friday, I noted how the Australian Treasury is about to become even more politicised following the appointment of former chief of staff to both Treasurers Peter Costello and Scott Morrison, Philip Gaetjens, to the secretary of the Department. Sadly, another esteemed government organisation – the Productivity Commission (PC) – is facing


Chinese lending slows faster

There’s no stopping the slowdown in Chinese credit. In June banks extended RMB1840bn but total aggregate financing fell to just RMB1180bn: The shadow banking share has collapsed: Year on year new loans eased into the positive but the three month moving average remains down: The rolling annual nudged higher: M2 slumped to 8%: Mortgage growth


Links 16 July 2018

Global Macro / Markets / Investing: Fiscal hawks’ tales of doom do not fly with the young – FT Fed Could Avert an Inverted Yield Curve. But It Won’t. – Bloomberg Watch out, retailers. This is just how big Amazon is becoming – CNBC The Death of Soda: 11 Slides on Why the Industry Has