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Final auction clearance rates strengthen

Last weekend, CoreLogic released its preliminary auction clearance rates, which revealed the following results: Today, CoreLogic has released its final auction results, which reported a 4.7% decline in the final national auction clearance rate to 72.3% – well above the same weekend last year (55.3%) and also above last week’s 70.0%: As you can see,

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The rise and rise of the secondary job

The Guardian’s Greg Jericho has completed some excellent analysis of this week’s quarterly experimental employment data from the ABS, which shows that there are actually more than there are people employed because a record 6% of earners work multiple jobs: In the June quarter this year there were 14.53m jobs available in Australia. Of these,

4

As QLD burns, troglodytes rally

Via Crikey comes a nice wrap of QLD troglodyte responses to the worst fires in 130 years: Campbell Newman Naturally, in the face of the calamity afflicting his beloved home state, former premier Campbell Newman did what any great statesman would do: he went searching through the archives to prove it really wasn’t that big a

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Chinese credit growth stalls

New yuan loans for august is out and the news is mixed. Total social financing was strong at 1.98tr yuan with banks at 1.2tr yuan: The shadow banking share rebounded: Growth is still positive though flattered by the base effect of last year’s deleveraging: The rolling annual is climbing: But M2 is flat-lined at 8.2%:

18

Tiny home mania born from housing policy failures

Last week, we reported that the New Zealand Government had effectively abandoned its “Kiwibuild” program to build 100,000 public houses after it fell way behind target, replacing it instead with a range of demand-side policies that would actually lift dwelling prices and make housing less affordable. Now, the NZ Government has sought changes to council

21

Wokester police state bullies Chinese takeover at Monash

Via Domain: Monash University’s senior executives have forced a student election to be cancelled after uproar over a “racist” move that banned foreign students from running. …The decision to exclude foreign students, revealed by The Age on Wednesday, was said to be designed to counter a union takeover by a group of mainly Chinese international

4

Dodgy Byers hides banker’s confessions

Via Banking Day legend Ian Rogers: Hidden industry self-assessments must be published pronto and APRA must lean hard on banks to ensure that they are, scrutineer Graeme Samuel told a parliamentary hearing yesterday. Recalcitrant banks – including ANZ and Bendigo and Adelaide Bank and Macquarie Group – need a “reality check”, Samuel told the Standing Committee on

0

Macro Morning

By Chris Becker  The positive mood is quickening with overnight markets reacting to the upside on US-China trade talks with US Treasury yields hitting a one month high. The firing of NSA John Bolton saw oil price drop, plus talk of easing of sanctions on Iran, while US PPI inflation figures were upbeat, lifting USD

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RBA: lifting compulsory superannuation would lower wages

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) released a statement yesterday in response to ‘questions on notice’ from federal MPs. Buried in this statement is the tacit acknowledgement from the RBA that lifting Australia’s superannuation guarantee (‘compulsory superannuation’) from 9.5% currently to 12% would lower wage growth [my emphasis]: Can the RBA advise what the impact

3

Daily iron ore price update (restock)

Texture from MySteel: China’s imported iron ore prices are likely to remain buoyant for the immediate future, thanks to additional procurements many steelmakers are undertaking ahead of the upcoming National Day Holiday over October 1-7, according to market sources on Wednesday. “Iron ore prices may remain relatively strong short-term, because there are still many mills

4

Australian dollar charges on into hope

DXY was up strongly last night as EUR fell with CNY: That capped the Australian dollar gains versus the USD but it ripped on versus other DMs: And EMs: Gold stopped falling: Oil resumed falling: Metals too: But miners are back! And EM stocks: But junk fell: Treasuries were bid: The bund curve is still

6

Chinese tourists return to Australia

The Australian Bureau of Statistics yesterday released its overseas short-term arrivals and departures figures for July. The number of short-term visitor arrivals rose by 19.7% in July in original terms, whereas short-term resident departures fell by 2.1% over the month. The ratio of annual arrivals to departures also rebounded to 81.2%: Net short-term arrivals remain

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Exploitative visa system undercuts Australian workers

Federal Minister for Employment Michaelia Cash has called on businesses to invest more in workforce training. Noting that it costs companies on average $28,000 to replace an employee, Cash claims that one of the main reasons why people leave their job is that they are unsatisfied with their skills development. Cash says that spending more

21

International student enrolments hit by “substantial downturn”

Higher education providers are panicking over the purported “substantial downturn” in international student enrolments across Western Australian colleges and universities: Perth-based colleges and universities are reporting a substantial downturn in students opting to come to the state, with TAFE enrolments down nearly 60 per cent on 2015 and WA’s intake of foreign fee-paying students dropping

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Links 12 September 2019

Global Macro / Markets / Investing: John Bolton was fired, and the price of oil instantly fell – CNN Why Solar Execs Say the Game is Already Over for Non-Renewable Energy – Fortune Insiders at U.S. companies dumping shares at fastest pace since 2007 – CBC Volkswagen bets big on electric. Will consumers buy in?

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Macro Afternoon

Its been a more upbeat mood here in Asia compared to overnight markets with everything outside China moving higher. Gold is trying to consolidate below $1500USD per ounce while the Aussie dollar has spiked following a rally in bank stocks as all eyes focus on the ECB’s upcoming meeting. The Shanghai Composite is the exception

26

High density living driving fall in new car sales?

New car sales have now declined for 17 months, longer than a 15-month decline that occurred during the global financial crisis (GFC): Now, a new report from KordaMentha indicates that car ownership is viewed as ‘more optional’ than in the past. Cars are not well suited to high-density living in Australia’s congested cities while young

5

NAB shreds cash rate forecast

NAB now calling for three rate cuts over the next nine months: “Post the national accounts – not surprisingly – we have not materially changed our forecasts. That said, we are increasingly worried about downside risks. With tax cuts making little impact on consumer spending — and probably won’t in the near term — and

9

Momo crushed

Via Damien Boey at Credit Suisse: Overnight, US 10-year bond yields surged by another 9bps. Over the past 5 days, bond yields have risen by almost 30bps. Catalysts for the bond sell off include reports of German fiscal stimulus in the pipeline, and a more conciliatory tone to US-China trade negotiations. We cannot also help

6

Drought to get worse on Antarctic heat wave

Via The Conversation: Record warm temperatures above Antarctica over the coming weeks are likely to bring above-average spring temperatures and below-average rainfall across large parts of New South Wales and southern Queensland. The warming began in the last week of August, when temperatures in the stratosphere high above the South Pole began rapidly heating in

6

Australia’s welfare blow-out debunked

For several years, media outlets like The Australian ran a campaign against the so-called ‘blowout’ in welfare spending, backing claims made by the Coalition Government that nearly half of the population receives more in welfare than they pay in tax. The Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (AIHW) 2019 welfare report has debunked this myth,

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Net migrant arrivals near 300,000

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has released visitor arrivals and departures statistics for the month of July, which reveals that the number of permanent and long-term arrivals into Australia remains turbo-charged. In the year to July 2019, there were a record 844,680 permanent and long-term arrivals into Australia, up 3% from July 2018, and

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Home ownership falls as each generation passes

The Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (AIHW) 2019 welfare report has recorded falling rates of homeownership as each generation passes, alongside growth in renters, especially among younger Australians: While Census data provides the most comprehensive view of housing tenure among Australian households, it is limited to once every 5 years. Other survey data can

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Coalition senator calls for immigration to be slashed

Queensland LNP senator Gerard Rennick has used his maiden speech to call for Australia’s immigration levels to be slashed, likening Australia’s immigration program to ‘over stocking’ paddocks: While economic growth is important, it should not come at a cost to our quality of life. It is time immigration levels were reduced so communities can deal