Citi has given Dominoes a huge serve today: Initiating coverage with Sell — We initiate coverage on Domino’s Pizza with a Sell rating and $45.50 target price. We expect the PE multiple to de-rate to 23x as sales and earnings growth slows. Domino’s has taken its share of the profit pool as far it
Dalian soft today which makes sense since its outlook is getting worse not better: But the technical action is enough to have reversed some of yesterday’s losses in Big Iron: Big Gas stinks of false hope today as it rises a little: Oil going sub-$40 in my view… Which means Big Gold is a buy
From Morgan Stanley: As part of the downside risk stress-testing, we ran our top down US oil production model under a broad $40-60/bbl WTI price range assumption in $5/bbl increments. Key take-aways are: – We estimate that US production will grow 800-1,050Mbbld exit/exit in 2017 with WTI in a broad $45-60/bbl range for the rest
By Leith van Onselen Back in September, Michael West reported how the Big Four accounting firms have taken corporate welfare to an extraordinary level, earning up at least $2.6 billion in fees from the Australian government over the past ten years at the same time as they advise multinationals on how to avoid paying tax.
By LF Economics It is well known the yield curve is an accurate predictor of recession and financial instability. When the yield of bonds and bills with shorter-term maturities are larger than that of longer-term maturities (the yield spread inverts), it is a clear indicator economic growth will decline in the near future. The general
By Leith van Onselen Retired economics professor, Peter Abelson, is the latest to call for stamp duties to be replaced by land taxes, arguing that such a reform could assist housing affordability. From Adam Creighton: Large increases in housing supply would have only a “small” impact on Sydney house prices, according to analysis commissioned by
By Leith van Onselen John Warhurst, an emeritus professor of political science at the Australian National University, has penned a well-argued piece calling for a Royal Commission into political corruption. From The SMH: …we remain relatively unconcerned by the parade of corruption and its near neighbour, unethical insider lobbying, in our public affairs. Too often,
From Credit Suise: Slip sliding away? With the sector falling more by the day, we thought it was worth an update on what stocks are pricing in, where balance sheets sit and what the Australian industry is doing (or not as the case may be). Perhaps it is an indictment on where valuations were before,
From Citi: Safe haven — With foreign investors tending to own close to half of the Australian market, its prospects relative to other markets, particularly in Asia, have some significance for potential flows in and out. Within the key regional benchmark, the MSCI Asia ex Japan index, Australia, as the second largest market, just
By Leith van Onselen Statistics New Zealand has released its permanent & long-term migration figures for May 2017, which revealed that annual net permanent and long-term migration into New Zealand hit a record high 71,964 people over the year: According to Statistics New Zealand, migrant arrivals numbered 130,400 in the May 2017 year, versus departures
By Chris Becker Another retreat in risk overnight on the back of slumping oil prices with both oil markers now in bear market territory, dragging energy shares down on the S&P500 while tech stocks remain buoyant. While oil is now down over 20% since the start of the year – suck on that OPEC
The Aussie dollar was weak against DMs last night: Stronger against EMs: Gold firmed: Oil was smacked: Weirdly, base metals surged, probably on China stimulus hopes which are WAY premature: Big miners liked it: EM stocks held on: But US and EM high yield buckled: US bonds were sold and curve hit new flats: European
Domainfax & Co are desperately fighting to keep the permanently high plateau for house prices alive today: The housing boom on Australia’s east coast will be over in two years but a crash like the US subprime crisis in 2007 is not likely, research and forecast group BIS Oxford Economics says. The strong house price growth in
Via Huffpost: The slowdown in Greater Toronto’s housing market this spring appears to be more than a one-month blip. Sales in the country’s largest housing market have fallen by half, compared to the same period a year earlier, according to real estate board data obtained by Bloomberg. The Toronto Real Estate Board counted 2,999 sales
William Bourke, President of the Sustainable Australia political party, appeared on Mark Latham’s Outsiders last night to talk about the federal government’s mass immigration program – roughly 200,000 per year – and its deleterious impacts on housing, infrastructure, the environment, the labour market, and overall living standards. The discussion starts from 39.25 in the video
Via Domainfax: Australia has dropped five places in a global survey of the best places to live, but it still remains one of the only countries outside Scandinavia in the top 10. According to the Social Progress Index, Australia’s education, medical care and nutrition levels have helped the country tie with New Zealand to reach
By Leith van Onselen The South Australian Government has announced that it will follow the New South Wales and Victorian Governments and privatise its land registry in a bid to raise a quick $500 million. From The AFR: South Australian Treasurer Tom Koutsantonis is buoyed by the hefty $2.6 billion price paid for NSW’s land titles
By Leith van Onselen The Turnbull Government has achieved another win, gaining the support of the 10-member Senate cross-bench for its Gonski-2.0 needs-based funding school model. From The Canberra Times: An extra $24 billion is set to flow into the nation’s schools over the next decade under a landmark deal struck between the Turnbull government
From Bloxo yesterday: …reading the economy recently has also required an expert eye. This is because many of the indicators we typically look at have been affected by the weather, or measurement issues, or both. Cyclone Debbie, which struck Queensland in late March, and unusually wet weather on the eastern seaboard, including the wettest March
Please explain: Senator Hanson has called for limits to foreign non-resident home ownership in Australia and will be raising the issue today, on the floor of the Senate. According to Senator Hanson the shortage of affordable housing available for Australians can be addressed by limiting foreign non-residents to one new property and enforcing laws to
By Leith van Onselen Back in March, a group of Sydney councils pushed back on the Greater Sydney Commission’s vision for Sydney, demanding more detail on funding for vital infrastructure projects, where problems have become chronic. Now, the Mayor of Wollondilly Council on the South-Western edge of Sydney, Judy Hannan, has forcefully pushed back on
That burying your head in the sand strategy ain’t working, via the AFR: Victorian CPAs are “highly likely” to lose their protection from multi-million-dollar malpractice lawsuits because their professional representative body, CPA Australia, will not have a new scheme approved by the government regulator before the current arrangement ends. CPA Australia, which has seen most
The oil crash is intensifying: It appears markets have finally come around to my view that there is no shortage at all. Libyan oil is poised to cross over 1mb/d and US shale is piling it on: Thus, markets are now seeking the US shale off switch by pushing energy bond yields higher: John Kemp
Iron ore price charts for June 21, 2017: Tianjin benchmark added $1 to $55.40. Paper took off overnight. Coking coal too. Steel is stuck. The bear market rally that has been trying and failing for two weeks finally gained a little traction. My guess is the trigger is the new liquidity management being undertaken by
