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Links 23 March 2017

Global Macro / Markets / Investing: The world’s deepest oil well is over 40,000 feet deep – Business Insider Can a Country Survive Without a Strong Middle Class? – The Atlantic Dow and S&P post first 1% fall in 5 months as banks tumble, health care reform worries remain – CNBC U.S. must stick to WTO rules when


Macro Afternoon

by Chris Becker Markets in Asia are getting squished as a result of the “shock” fall in US stocks overnight. Red across the board while the flight to safety sees bonds bid up high with Treasuries down to nearly 2.4% and Aussie issues off four points to 2.77% as the Aussie dollar moderates its falls from last


Is it a bird? Is it a plane? No, it’s a real estate listing

We can now confirm that the property section has been permanently elevated above all other content aside from headlines at Domainfax’s metro dailies: Moreover, what are those “Dream Homes” blocks? All ads on the site are marked as such yet these homes float in like Bondi cigars to spoil the lovely vista. They’re obviously not editorial


Still more “urgent” mortgage tightening in China

Via Caixin the PBOC is leaning on banks: Recently, the central bank expedited the issue of “do a good job of credit policy work,” a text, which for the mortgage policy, the document clearly requires: the People’s Bank of the branches to strengthen the guidance of the commercial bank window (reporter Zhang Xin Wu Hongyu


Warning: Chinese property buyers will default on losses

Via the AFR: It should not be surprising then that, when media started reporting Melbourne apartments being resold at substantial losses in early 2016, this was a cause for alarm among offshore buyers of “off the plan” Melbourne apartments. What developers may not have appreciated when signing “off the plan” contracts with offshore buyers from


Good ‘ol days return as Big Iron crashes

Dalian is open and soft but holding: The good ‘ol days return today as Big Iron is getting hosed: FMG is falling -5% and describing a superb head and shoulders topping pattern: The uptrend is broken but we’ll need to see it breach the $5.80 neckline before the topping pattern is confirmed. RIO has a


Disastrous Nahan rises to top WA job

Don’t say I didn’t warn you. Via The Australian: He’s a 66-year-old right-wing ­policy wonk with an American accent who bears a striking ­resemblance to Ned Flanders from The Simpsons. Former West Australian treasurer Mike Nahan yesterday ­became the unlikely leader of the shell-shocked Liberal Party, ­replacing the long-serving Colin Barnett in the wake of


Westpac’s leading index retraces

From Westpac’s Bill Evans: The six month annualised growth rate in the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Index, which indicates the likely pace of economic activity relative to trend three to nine months into the future, fell from 1.34% in January to 1.02% in February. The Leading Index continues to point to above trend growth momentum, albeit


Gotti: Gas inaction is criminal

From Gotti today: I have a shock for any politician, public servant or political advisor found by the courts to be misleading the public about the dangers of their power and gas policies — they can be jailed. Back in 1995 the parliament of the day passed legislation that they hoped would never be necessary


Soc Gen: Australian mining bust transition “perfect”

Via Business Insider today: The French global investment bank says it expects Australian economic growth “to run at an above-potential rate for the next couple of years”, with a strong pipeline of residential housing activity a key driver of the growth. Klaus Baader, Asia-Pacific chief economist for Soc Gen and an experienced Australia forecaster, has


ABC Lateline does housing affordability

By Leith van Onselen ABC Lateline last night aired a segment on housing affordability, which involved a panel discussion involving: Former federal leader of the Liberal Party John Hewson; Director of research at Essential Media Rebecca Huntley; Managing Director of Market Economics Stephen Koukoulas; and Victorian CEO of the Urban Development Institute of Australia Danni


Population ponzi sinks New Zealand government

By Leith van Onselen With the general election scheduled for 23 September, things are starting to look bad for the recently promoted Prime Minister of New Zealand, Bill English, delivering a stark warning to Aussie politicians. Yesterday, reported that the latest Newshub-Reid Research poll has placed Bill English on 25% in the preferred prime


Population ponzi drives Melbourne vacancy rates to decade low

By Leith van Onselen Remember this chart? It shows that Victoria’s population growth surged by an all-time high 123,100 people in the year to June 2016: Suggesting Melbourne’s population grew by circa 105,000 over the same period, given historical population shares. According to SQM Research, the population surge in Melbourne has pushed the city’s rental