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Macro Morning

Overnight share markets were still mixed despite a late rally on Wall Street as bond market volatility continued with Treasury 2 years almost at a two year high while the 10 year almost hit the 1.7% handle before slightly retreating. While Wall Street was up, European stocks continued their selloff amid more COVID lockdown concerns,


Australian dollar stumbles towards cliff edge

The assault upon the Australian dollar is coming from a tearaway DXY as EUR wilts: The Australian dollar was universally weak. It’s chart is forming up a bearish descending triangle retest of the lows: Oil was firm, gold not: Energy is spiking again thanks to European gas and that is keeping metals afloat: Big miners


Property investors the “key swing factor for housing” in 2022

Westpac has released its monthly housing market report which sees investors driving the property market forward in 2022: Generally speaking, where investors go, housing markets usually follow. The recent revival – led by owner occupiers – is a rare counter-example with owner-occupiers leading the way. However, as already noted, affordability pressures are starting to weigh


Gottiboff: ‘Big Australia’ immigration needed to juice housing market

Last week, Robert Gottliebsen claimed Australia was running out of migrants to buy houses: This week, Gotti has repeated the dose, calling on Australia to compete heavily to attract migrants to juice the property market, serve coffees and drive Ubers: The aftermath of world war two taught Australia that if it was to grow and


Links 25 November 2021

Global Macro / Markets / Investing: Amazon workers plan global Black Friday protests for better wages, tax accountability – USA Today Wealth and privilege allowed Elizabeth Holmes to start Theranos – Ars Technica Biden Wants Lower Oil Prices and Lower Oil Supply. That’s not how it works – Reason The Real Inflation Problem is Corporate


Macro Afternoon

The mixed start to the trading week for Asian stock markets continued with most bourses going nowhere, while Japanese share markets reopened with some large losses even as Yen continues to soften against USD. The USD remains very strong against most of the major currency pairs with Euro and Pound Sterling still at weekly lows


Australian job postings continue to boom

Callam Pickering, economist at global jobs site Indeed, has updated hits job postings series, which continues to boom. Nationally job postings on Indeed Australia are 91% above their level on 1 February last year before the pandemic began. Victoria’s job postings are up 109% and NSW’s is up 96% on pre-pandemic levels, with both recovering


Finally, ACTU pushes back against immigration flood

For years the ACTU has tiptoed around the immigration issue, despite its clear adverse impacts on the working class. In 2018, the ACTU even signed an immigration compact with the Migration Council and the business lobby declaring support for a ‘Big Australia’. Today, ACTU secretary Sally McManus has finally taken a stand against the Morrison


Coalition declares itself “the party of home ownership”

Data from the federal government shows that more than 112,000 grants were approved for new homes under its HomeBuilder scheme. Other government programs such as the First Home Loan Deposit Scheme and the First Home Super Saver scheme have also boosted home ownership. Prime Minister Scott Morrison says the government’s policies have helped 320,000 Australians


Inflation expectations hit 7-year high

Roy Morgan has released inflations expectations for November, which has reached a seven year high: In November 2021 Australians expected inflation of 4.9% annually over the next two years, up 0.1% points, and the highest Inflation Expectations for seven years since November 2014. Inflation Expectations are now 0.2% points above the long-term average of 4.7%


Albo should mothball Penny Wong

Shadow Minister for Foreign Affairs, Penny Wong, delivered a pretty ordinary speech yesterday: THE PURPOSE OF AUSTRALIA’S FOREIGN POLICY The purpose of Australian foreign policy is to advance Australian interests and values – to ensure our security, our economic strength and to shape the world for the better. We must build the region and world


MB Fund October 2021 Performance

October was not our month. Stock markets pulled back but rebounded mid-month to end in the black on the back of encouraging corporate earnings and an easing of fears around China’s property sector. Our core portfolios underperformed as the market took a wait-and-see approach on our over-weight travel stocks that were due to report in


Health experts reject Dictator Dan’s vaccine segregation

Public health experts have attacked the Victorian Andrews Government’s vaccine segregation policy, which promises to lock unvaccinated residents – including children aged 12 to 15 – out of everyday activities like retail, cafes, indoor sports and events until 2023: “Whether it’s a bookshop, a shoe shop, a pub, cafe, a restaurant, the MCG, the list


Non-residential building drives construction lower in Q3

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has released preliminary data on construction work done, which fell slightly over the September quarter on the back of lower non-residential building construction. As shown in the next table, total construction work fell by 0.3% over the September quarter, driven by a 2.2% fall in non-residential building. Over the


Time Beijing banned Chinese students Downunder

Sadly, the ponzi-economy is returning: Around 200,000 eligible visa holders with recognized immunization certificates are expected to arrive in the few months following the December 1 easing, after Prime Minister Scott Morrison on Monday announced a further softening of international travel bans. Skilled workers and students, as well as refugee, humanitarian, temporary and provisional visa


Voters reject Big Australia immigration flood

Last month, the The Australian Population Research Institute (TAPRI) released detailed polling showing that only 19% of respondents supported pre-COVID levels of immigration, with 70% wanting lower levels of immigration (of which 48% want significantly lower or zero immigration): The overwhelming majority (69%) of Australians also do not believe that Australia needs more people: A new


Macro Morning

Overnight share markets remains mixed as volatility from bond markets and a steeper expectation of the next Federal Reserve rate rise (now slated for July 2022) impacted risk taking. Wall Street diverged again with tech stocks taking a beating while European stocks continued their selloff despite a much weaker Euro. USD was largely unchanged but


Chinese stimulus still small and targeted

You wouldn’t know it from the reaction in the iron ore market but the Chinese stimulus is still small and targeted. At the FT: Chinese regulators have eased pressure on property developers by loosening credit controls and allowing more bond issuance in recent weeks in an effort to prevent the sector from collapsing. But analysts


Australian dollar hits new lows

DXY held its recent gains as EUR bounced a touch: The Australian dollar hit new lows for the move: Gold fell, oil rallied: Base metals were mixed: Big miners bear market rallied: EM stocks are rapidly heading back to the cliff’s edge: As junk folds: Long yields rose but the curve is unmistakeably flattening: GAMMA


Kohler: Pollies pretend to care about housing affordability

Alan Kohler on Monday night hosted a terrific segment on the ABC’s 7.30 Report exposing politicians pretending to care about housing affordability: ALAN KOHLER: For a start the average block is now a ninth of an acre, no backyard and prices have been expanding faster than block sizes have been shrinking. The typical Australian dream


As Victoria’s population boomed, residents went bust

In the decade leading up to COVID, Victoria experienced by far the strongest population growth in the nation. In the 10 years to December 2019, Victoria’s population grew by a massive 1,241,000 people (23%) on the back of mass immigration: This rapid population growth created all manner of problems for Melbournians, from worsening congestion to


Links 24 November 2021

Global Macro / Markets / Investing: Amazon Will Face Black Friday Strikes and Protests in 20 Countries – Vice Elon Musk and the Dangers of Another Stock Bubble – New Yorker Global supply constraints will last until at least 2023, ad guru Maurice Levy predicts – CNBC Stock market news live updates: Stocks rise after


Macro Afternoon

The mixed start to the trading week for Asian stock markets continued with a lack of direction quite evident as Chinese bourses continued to diverge, Japanese markets were closed while local shares bounced back sharply. The USD remains very strong against the major currency pairs with Euro looking dire indeed while gold is frantically trying


Federal anti-corruption bill unlikely to pass this year

Despite promising to implement a federal anti-corruption commission last election, the Morrison Government looks set to delay plans to table legislation in the Senate until next year amid Senate concerns that the model lacks teeth: First floated in 2018 by then attorney-general Christian Porter, the Coalition has come under sustained criticism since for failing to