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Yield curve suggests no recession on horizon

By LF Economics It is well known the yield curve is an accurate predictor of recession and financial instability. When the yield of bonds and bills with shorter-term maturities are larger than that of longer-term maturities (the yield spread inverts), it is a clear indicator economic growth will decline in the near future. The general


Replacing stamp duties with land taxes would lower house prices

By Leith van Onselen Retired economics professor, Peter Abelson, is the latest to call for stamp duties to be replaced by land taxes, arguing that such a reform could assist housing affordability. From Adam Creighton: Large increases in housing supply would have only a “small” impact on Sydney house prices, according to analysis commissioned by


We need a Royal Commission into political corruption

By Leith van Onselen John Warhurst, an emeritus professor of political science at the Australian National University, has penned a well-argued piece calling for a Royal Commission into political corruption. From The SMH: …we remain relatively unconcerned by the parade of corruption and its near neighbour, unethical insider lobbying, in our public affairs. Too often,


NZ immigration hits another record high

By Leith van Onselen Statistics New Zealand has released its permanent & long-term migration figures for May 2017, which revealed that annual net permanent and long-term migration into New Zealand hit a record high 71,964 people over the year: According to Statistics New Zealand, migrant arrivals numbered 130,400 in the May 2017 year, versus departures


The housing bubble is going to bust this time

Domainfax & Co are desperately fighting to keep the permanently high plateau for house prices alive today: The housing boom on Australia’s east coast will be over in two years but a crash like the US subprime crisis in 2007 is not likely, research and forecast group BIS Oxford Economics says. The strong house price growth in


Mark Latham Outsiders does the immigration ponzi

William Bourke, President of the Sustainable Australia political party, appeared on Mark Latham’s Outsiders last night to talk about the federal government’s mass immigration program – roughly 200,000 per year – and its deleterious impacts on housing, infrastructure, the environment, the labour market, and overall living standards. The discussion starts from 39.25 in the video


Gonski 2.0 set to pass after Coalition finds a way

By Leith van Onselen The Turnbull Government has achieved another win, gaining the support of the 10-member Senate cross-bench for its Gonski-2.0 needs-based funding school model. From The Canberra Times: An extra $24 billion is set to flow into the nation’s schools over the next decade under a landmark deal struck between the Turnbull government


Wrong again, Bloxo

From Bloxo yesterday: …reading the economy recently has also required an expert eye. This is because many of the indicators we typically look at have been affected by the weather, or measurement issues, or both. Cyclone Debbie, which struck Queensland in late March, and unusually wet weather on the eastern seaboard, including the wettest March


One Nation ignoramus calls for ban on foreign property buyers

Please explain: Senator Hanson has called for limits to foreign non-resident home ownership in Australia and will be raising the issue today, on the floor of the Senate. According to Senator Hanson the shortage of affordable housing available for Australians can be addressed by limiting foreign non-residents to one new property and enforcing laws to


Naked CEO loses CPA’s professional indemnity

That burying your head in the sand strategy ain’t working, via the AFR: Victorian CPAs are “highly likely” to lose their protection from multi-million-dollar malpractice lawsuits because their professional representative body, CPA Australia, will not have a new scheme approved by the government regulator before the current arrangement ends. CPA Australia, which has seen most