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Trading Day: no reaction to jobs

The S&P/ASX 200 opened higher, shrugging off bad job data, and at midday is up 10 points or 0.2% to 4546 points. The correction has now wiped off just over 9% of price in the ASX200, just below the conventional 10% level of a complete correction. Asian markets are mixed, with the Nikkei down over

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Full time jobs by state

Below find the state by state break up of full time jobs, all seasonally adjusted. Weakness in NSW, QLD and SA is not sufficiently offset by gains in VIC and WA for a total fall of 22,000. The RBA’s adjustment to Quarry Australia continues apace.

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Employment trend at zero

Well…there is now no doubting the message that the NAB Business survey employment index and the recent turn in the ANZ job ads survey have been sending: employment has softened considerably.   Today’s employment data was up 7,800 in May against the markets expectation of +25,000. But the sting was both in the break up between full

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Full time jobs down again

  MAY KEY POINTS TREND ESTIMATES (MONTHLY CHANGE) Employment increased to 11,444,200. Unemployment decreased to 588,400. Unemployment rate steady at 4.9%. Participation rate steady at 65.6%. Aggregate monthly hours worked increased to 1,602.5 million hours. SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES (MONTHLY CHANGE) Employment increased 7,800 (0.1%) to 11,440,500. Full-time employment decreased 22,000 to 8,027,100 and part-time employment

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Monthly chartathon

The Reserve Bank released its latest Chart Pack yesterday. As a technical analyst/chartist, I prefer a visual representation of data and have always found this series of charts fascinating. The whole pack can be downloaded here (1.28 mB or so) or viewed by section here. Although it covers many areas, I’m going to look at

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No taxes, cheap houses

Following my recent post, Blame your leaders, in which I explained why high house prices are partly the result of high property taxes I was asked by a voice of sanity in my household: “How can you keep a straight face and propose that one of the demand driven causes of driving up house prices, is

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China’s great iron ore pile

I won’t lie, the iron ore price has been making a goose of me for almost two years. At various points my forecast for big falls has almost been right but in total I have been clearly wrong. My prediction has been frustrated by tear away fixed asset investment in China, new market dynamics and

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Has the RBA killed the dollar rally?

Over the past 8 trading days the Aussie has essentially traded a 1.0590-1.0770 range as the competiting forces in currency land played out. Friday’s spike after non-farm payrolls on the back of the euro’s bounce has not been sustained and as I write the Aussie has bounced off the bottom of the range overnight and

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Trading Day: support broken

The S&P/ASX 200 dropped on the open, and at midday is down over 53 points or 1.16% to 4520 points. The correction has now wiped off just over 9% of price in the ASX200, just below the conventional 10% level of a complete correction. Asian markets are all down, with the Nikkei down over 0.4%,

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The Metcash barometer

Given Metcash is the small operator within a large duopoly structure, and therefore relies in some measure upon system growth, we can take brokers’ attitudes as a good weather vane for sentiment towards the non-mining part of the economy. And it is pretty bearish. Southern Cross is claiming that the Eastern seaboard is already in

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Carbon taxing equities

As a value investor and climate change agnostic, I have to admit I’ve been watching the carbon tax/ETS debate with a sort of detached interest.  Given the Federal government’s unparalleled skill at botching both policy PR and implementation, I had assumed that the ETS would go the way of FuelWatch, Pinkbats and Kevin Rudd’s stiff

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Lurching

The reasons behind the RBA’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged yesterday have largely been ignored in today’s commentary. The radical alterations made to the accompanying statement have been overlooked, lied about or dismissed. Instead, pretty much to a man, media and bank economic commentary has stuck to its so far completely wrong assessment that

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AFG sees a bounce

As my long term readers would know I have followed AFG mortgage data for quite some time. I am aware that it is not actual mortgage issuance, is susceptible to variations in AFG’s market share, seems to have a disproportionate spread across the states which doesn’t match their size, and also has a bizarre trend

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Beware the housing elites

If there is one thing in this world that drives me crazy, it is social engineering based on ideology rather than an objective examination of facts. A classic example was on display in two related articles recently published in the mainstream media. Both articles relate to recent work undertaken by Dr Robert Crawford, an academic

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Bullhawks vanquished!

After the frighteningly hawkish SoMP and minutes from last month, it appears the RBA has done a straight one-eighty and presented us with an extraordinarily dovish Statement. Let’s pull it apart: At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 4.75 per cent. The global economy is continuing its expansion, led

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Trading Day: rates pause

The S&P/ASX 200 slipped on the open, down over 30 points or over 0.6% before this afternoon’s rate decision by the RBA. It is now at 4541 points and rising as a result. Asian markets are mixed with Japanese markets rallying, with the Nikkei up over 0.5%, but the Hang Seng dropping 0.7% and Singapore

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Will Fitch pull the trigger ?

Back in May I noted that Fitch had this to say on their future strategy for dealing with Australian bank’s housing credit issuance. … Australian banks could have their credit ratings cut if they lower standards to boost mortgage sales as demand for home loans slumps. “If we do start to see signs of erosion

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Boganomics upsets The Australian

There’s nothing quite like the pleasure of being misquoted in the national broadsheet. That’s the experience of the Boganomics team today with The Australian selectively quoting from Friday’s runaway success story, CateGate, which was picked up by the Fairfax press. The Australian’s Cut and Paste section ran a series of excerpts today under the headline: Friends,

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Australian dollar gold standard

We have discussed the possibility that the Aussie has been re-rated by international investors and traders a few times here on Macro. We’ll won’t really know if this is true until the next big bout of market instability, but there is evidence that it is the case among long term holders such as central banks

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Chinese banks feeling the heat

Following on from last night’s post on S&P’s recent report on China and commodities, the Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) yesterday released an interest report (available below) on the precarious position of the Chinese banking system. Here are some key extracts: Chinese banks’ aggressive credit expansion in the past two years greatly facilitated China’s strong economic recovery

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Shoppers warming up

The medium term performance of the share market (ex-resources) depends heavily on household’s willingness to spend. The savings rate is rising as “disleveraging” occurs, but that is in the past. What maters for stocks is what will happen in the future and Royal Bank of Scotland is detecting some positive signs. Unlike America, where high

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Demystifying the deficit

After a series of posts examining the fiscal woes of the United States (see here, here and here for example), I have refrained from posting on the issue for the past couple of months, mainly because I have little to add that I have not already said. In short, yes, the US has a longer-term

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Will the US economy bounce?

There is a wealth of debate surrounding the US economy at the moment. The basic tenets of the debate can be summarised as bulls arguing that the current slowdown is the result of high oil prices whacking consumers and the Japanese tsunami whacking production. Bears are arguing there is a structural problem that these shocks

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The secret to house price rises

Yesterday I posted my observations that rates of credit issuance are the main driver for housing price adjustments in Australia. I noted that when the rate of credit issuance rose for a month then prices moved upwards soon after, and the reverse was true for the downside. It was therefore important as a housing investor and/or home buyer to

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I said nuclear, dammit!

It never ceases to amaze me how proponents of nuclear power can be against a carbon price, the very piece of policy required in this country to make it economic. At the moment, nuclear power remains significantly more expensive than fossil-fueled power, at around twice the cost. Yet Ziggy Switkowski, one of the country’s most